USCAPEWEATHERAF

Great observation Bob, I agree, NAM is going to crush us

What's good Sam, man has 2009 been a while bro. SO how is Oklahoma these days? This storm looks amazing, the GFS was down to 965mb east of Chatham, with 850mb temps below -6C to -12C

850mb temps crash and so do the 925mb, this storm will have heavy precip rates with QPF amounts from 2-3" of QPF, this will bring surface temps from the mid 30s into the upper 20s

Will Harwich did well in that storm 32" in my front yard

Just the Euro and Ukmet models went east, every other model corrected westward

Here is the first snow map for the March 12-14th Nor'easter, looks colder than previous two nor'easters so there is a heavy snow component unlike the last two, and a very serious wind component which could bring hurricane force wind gusts to Cape Cod and the Islands during the day Tuesday with blizzard conditions at the same time due to heavy falling snow, accumulations east of CT look very reasonable SW CT gets the least amount this go around.

You think Blizzard Watches will go up?

How does Cape Cod do Jerry?

Oh thanks for clarifying Tip

A monster storm is beginning to organize over the Northern PLains to the Southeastern US states this afternoon, a large energetic disturbance is causing a southwesterly jet to enhance precipitation across the Southeast, a large plume of low level moisture sits off the southwestern Peninsula of Florida at this time in the form of major thunderstorms producing a lot of rain. Cold air is coming southward from the arctic region in the form of an upper level trough this trough will enter the US tomorrow morning in the form of a potential closed off upper level low, the newest 12z models produce 1-2' of snow for the Cape and Islands, before all said and done central MA and CT will receive 1-2' while the eastern MA and RI coastlines will receive the most snow from this storm, this looks like an all snow event on all models. 2-3' looks more probable at this time, this is a high end snowstorm event with wind potentially reaching hurricane force in gusts, stay tuned!

Its the Pacific North American Pattern

This is my only snowfall map for the Noreaster of March 7-8th 2018. Thundersnow is apparent in NJ and NYC and especially in the warm conveyor belt south of SNE where lightning is immense underneath very cold cloud tops where convection is. these heavier snow rates will bring down the cold air from the 850mb layer of the atmosphere and lead to potential snowfall over the Cape and Islands tonight the R/S line will crash southeast as the surface low is forecasted to move southeast of Nantucket and Chatham and is being reported as east of the 20z analysis of the 12z/18z NAM runs and 12z RGEM run, this should bode well for the Cape and Islands as this will keep the 925mb 0C line southeast of the area and should promote dynamic cooling to the surface, we shall see, otherwise there is another nor'easter on the models for Monday of next week that looks a little more dangerous than this storm tonight. We shall see! Current observations: Harwich, MA 38F temp, ENE wind gusty, and raining

Here is my final snowfall map for tonight's snow storm

A significant snowstorm is likely for Southern New England on Sunday. Snowfall amounts near 6-10" is likely from NE PA to Boston, MA, on the immediate coastline temps will be closer to freezing so snowfall will be wetter consistency and therefore lesser amounts than slightly inland where I have 6-8" from west of 128 to NYC and Long Island, NY. Snowfall map below:

A snow and wind threat exists on Saturday into Sunday from PA to SNE. Stay tuned for the latest details.

What if the world was about to witness the most catastrophic hurricane disaster in a 36 hour period ever? What would you do?

If you heard the names of Franklin, Gert and Harvey, you would think, hey those are just general names and nothing bad to think about here, but you put a hurricane in front and now you have, Hurricane Franklin, Hurricane Gert, and Hurricane Harvey, now you have built in fear. What if the US was in an unprecedented times, the weather was king and the oceans were warming without the impacts of global warming, nope Solar radiation was normal, so it can be that, no what if you were a meteorologist in the year 2029, trying to figure out the forecast number of intense hurricanes to form without the knowledge of why the ocean was warming into the 90-95F range from Puerto Rico westward to the US coastline throughout the Gulf Stream? You would only figure out the warming cause after the season was over, when no one was no longer in danger of hurricanes. The result is three super intense, super insane category six hurricanes with winds sustained over 200mph, gusts near 250-300mph, with Gert the most intense near 255mph sustained wind field at the core making landfall on SE Florida, Miami ground zero, then all three cat six hurricanes make landfall on separate areas of the US coastline within 36 hours of time. This is a tremendous story of man versus mother nature. I hope you want to read something awesome. I will attach it below. thanks! - James Warren Nichols Productions Dawn Awakening, Opening Segment.docx

Right now the pattern supports a cold and snowy regime with the PNA staying positive throughout the month, while the NAO stays positive, which means a rather progressive regime stays in place and we will likely see an oscillating AO pattern which produces some polar vortex lobes of energy to phase into the southern stream disturbances and that is how we get our nor'easters. I am still suspect thinking on the Monday storm, right now models have a second piece of energy phasing into the eastern US troughing just as the cold front tries to clear the New England coastline. NAM is west with the frontal zone and therefore the track of the surface low, while the GFS/CMC are further offshore with the secondary low. EURO somewhere offshore as well, but this model has done absolutely nothing but kill itself in this range, which is 48 hours out. Stay tuned, I think Monday event could trend better for South Coast of New England including the Cape and Islands.

Snow threats along with a wind threat exists on Monday while a snow threat exists on Friday. Increasing model support for a 3-6/4-8" event like the one on Tuesday for Friday and a bigger event 6-12"+ on Monday into Tuesday of next week Monday. Stay tuned to the forecasts as they will be increasingly likely for a significant event on Monday and a solid event on Friday. Trough in the east and ridge in the west pattern will continue throughout February

This is my final map for this snowstorm. Not as widespread with the snowfall amounts, 12:1 ratios make sense as it will get colder throughout the storm. Ocean enhancement/effect snows will add to the amounts over mid and outer Cape Cod. Not buying latest NAM run as the hires NAM shows significant accumulations for the south shore, Cape and Islands. Winds might be a problem with the fluffy snowfall. Blizzard like conditions will hamper travel tomorrow night into the morning hours on Tuesday. I will get video of the heavy snow as 1"/hour snowfall rates are possible for a time Tuesday morning.

Rain will start off our Sunday morning and will either stop entirely on Sunday night and then start as Snowfall on Monday afternoon. It will fall heavily for a few hours as there is decent lift in the Dendrite Snow Growth zone over the Cape and Islands, if the west trend continues into the 12z runs tomorrow afternoon hours then we could see more than 8" on the Outer Cape and Nantucket. This is my final snow map as this is the most likely amounts.

12z and 18z models beginning to indicate a secondary shortwave riding up the coastline forming a coastal storm on the frontal boundary and could become quite potent -winter storm threat is increasing as models gain confidence in what disturbance will do what on Sunday through Tuesday -Snow threat remains high, models increasing precipitation into the region as a frontal boundary plows offshore and the coastal low develops into a powerful nor'easter -as Nor'easter develops a potentcy wind threat increases out of the northeast - as nor'easter strengthens coastal flooding becomes a threat -Please stay tuned to the latest updates from the Taunton NWS WFO

**Winter Storm Alert** - development of a coastal nor'easter is becoming possible in the day 5-7 time frame - cold air looks to reenter the region as a cold front passes through sometime between the 27th and 28th of January followed by a nor'easter threat around the 29th - Region in most danger is Southern and Northern New England -danger level is low at this time, due to uncertainty, stay tuned!

I could see how Cape Cod could end up with more snow from both systems than say Springfield MA if the coastal storm on Wednesday takes a more southeasterly path

This map is the combined storm threats the next four days, I included the Thursday storm because I believe that the models will come northwest with the coastal storm on Thursday enough to add a few inches to the forecast for Cape Cod. I believe 12"+ will occur on the Cape, south and north shores of Boston, MA as this is combining all three events which it looks like all three will contribute 3-6" of snow to this part of the region. Most of the rest of the region will be 6-9 or 9-12" from the Wednesday event alone. Coastline gets their snow Wednesday into Thursday from two likely different events