LongBeachSurfFreak

Same here. Hawaii, specifically the north shore of Oahu is the Mecca for surfers. I have been to the same islands but have spent most of my time there on Oahu. I think hands down the biggest threat is flash flooding. As the core will most likely remain to the south and offshore tropical storm force winds out of the same direction as the trades shouldn’t cause to many problems. The wave impacts will be minimal as the islands are routinely impacted by swells from both the north and occasional South Pacific that are far larger then what a hurricane can produce. (Small fetch area reduces swell generation)

Pretty safe bet at this point. Offshore water temps are way above normal which has a positive feedback with our weather.

.20” last night. Back to the immediate south shore summer rain pattern after a great end to July. Just had a couple of strong gusts with a wind shift to the north west. I guess the front came through dry

I have been there for some pretty serious rains (6”+ in 24 hours) during the winter from a stuck cold front. The only thing you will notice is the water turning brown from runoff. The islands get heavy rains often so they are accustomed to it.

Outflow looks near perfect in all quadrants currently so it’s definitly maximizing its potential. No signs of shear yet in the SW quadrant. Well see what effect that has soon as it should start to feel the shear in the next 24 hours.

Guessing an exact date is tuff but I would say not this season. By the time the Atlantic has a shot at producing we will be into the recurvature season. As the westerly’s become more pronounced. The exact reason sandy is so incredibly anamolous

It’s going to get sheared down to a high end trop storm or at worst a cat 1. That’s if your even in the core. I would think a couple of windy days from the pressure gradient. Luckily the wind will be from the same direction as the trades which often get up to around trop storm in gusts. (I have spent allot of time on oahu surfing). So I would think your looking at some palm fronds down and maybe a couple scattered power outages in the higher more rural terrain. The big resorts should be perfectly fine. The is all assuming you miss what ever is left of the core.

Hawaii has that area of cooler water just to its east that generally protects it. This storm would bypass most of that area. Iniki showed that Hawaii can be hit by a major if the storm is coming from the south. This scenario is kind of a blend of the two. Weakening wouldn’t be compeltly from cooler waters but rather a combo of that and higher wind shear. Even if this does threaten Oahu and Kaua’i its likely as a tropical storm.

Some drizzle falling here in wantagh currently despite the radar not showing anything. Today definitely has an early autumn feel.

Not sure about the monthly total but it’s been a running joke for years in my neighborhood that it never rains in the summer. The new official station has been proving there is some truth to that. We are too far south for the sea breeze convection that seems to form along the southern state. And convection coming from the West seems to die before reaching us. Even further east on the south shore of Suffolk seems to get Into better storms. Of course we have had our moments but that’s usually associated with warm fronts. It must be a combination of the of the ocean and geography.

Only .15” at the wantagh meso in the last 24 hours. We find every possible way to miss any precip. i have also noticed the last several weeks there is an area of convection non stop about 100 miles south of the island over the ocean. That area must have had 50” of rain or something ridiculous

I had 2 12”+ storms last winter as did most east and far NW of the city

A gigantic .13” at the wantagh meso today. The best thing about having that meso where it is, is to show the ocean effect on summer precip patterns. While the rest of the island gets rocked the immediate south shore stays dry.

Not a drop here at Jones beach and nothing at the wantagh meso. Back to a more typical summer pattern where the immediate south shore misses out on everything. My gf said she had a good storm in Babylon near the southern state

Still stunningly beautiful at beach. Nice watching the storms form on the sea breeze front over the island. At some point the whole boundary has to pass through so it should rain everywhere at some point

Today has turned into a beautiful day at the beach. Full sunshine currently

.04” at the wantagh meso. Found every single possible way to miss every storm. Back to a typical south shore misses everything pattern

I have seen this show 1000 time out here on the island. Looks more like a late spring squall line then mid August. I was hoping the warmer waters would keep this together

I can’t wait. I’m just looking forward to lower dews which have been absent this summer. Brutal for guys like me who work outside...

See above. But the bigger point is NYC’s temps are way off (on the cool side) of other much smaller cities in the north east.

The nyc joke continues. I think this wet period pretty much proved the wet vegetation theory. I wonder when Upton throws in the towel and officially stops using that site as the official one for nyc climate

Wantagh meso with .07”. You really need to be directly in the rain shaft of these storms the last few days

Just light rain despite a flash flood warning on the UWS

I would expect snow threats to continue the NW trend this winter like we saw last winter. This seems to be an on going situation rather then a short term trend.

The air over us is fairly stable with the NE flow today. The convection earlier was hitting it like a brick wall and turning more into a more strataform type rain. The flow seems to have back more to the south so that may help moving forward