LongBeachSurfFreak

Go through “history” and find another storm that did anything remotely close to sandy. While history has its place consensus is so strong that it has to be discounted.

Very unusual wind direction with the strongest gusts here, NNE. Not what we usually get with thunderstorms. Could have something to do with being between the two stronger cells

Just had a couple good gusts in wantagh probably around 40mph.

It’s good for surf impacts as that storm closed beaches for more then a week. That’s the one thing that’s a certainty.

Thoughts on storms for later? The immediate south shore has been extremely dry, to the point that lawns a brown and perrenials and annuals are dying.

I don’t know why anyone would compare this scenario to Sandy. Apples and oranges. NHC is really struggling with the intensity forecasts. I doubt Florence is much more then a cat 1 right now and on it’s way down to a trop storm. This really goes to show how much we still have to learn collectively. Smaller storms are really subject to intensity swings. Once Florence gets into that area with some good OHC if shear drops it could easily bounce back to a major. One thing these weakening periods do tend to do is increase the size of the storm after restrengthening resumes. That’s where you start increasing the danger for the east coast. A larger storm with a bigger wind field is much better at imparting it’s energy into the ocean through a larger fetch. So if Florence ends up being a very large storm down the road it would obviously have much greater coastal impacts.

Allot of model hugging just like during the winter. the gfs is way over doing intensity once it gets close into the coast. We saw exactly that with Irene and allot of people got burned with the doomsday predictions. The same thing happened with Gloria In 85. It takes a near perfect evolution to get anything more then a low end cat 1 into our region. (See hurricane of 38) Sandy had the aide of baroclynicity, which wouldn’t be much of a factor here with a more pure tropical storm. Anything that gets close to the coast north of the Gulf Stream mixes up cold shelf waters rapidly. So any talk about our waters being above normal is pretty mute. You really need to see a storm get sling shot in and through (again see 38) Right now I want to focus on what’s going on with the WAR. There is still a good chance this thing finds a weakness and escapes. The one good thing for those wanting mayhem is the tendency for the strength of the WAR to be stronger then modeled in the long term.

I’m assuming that super impressive NYC 97 is from that incredible and sustained heatwave that killed a ton of people. That was the 1800s equivalent of one of our stuck patterns. Unc posted some great stuff on that a couple years ago. I would have to imagine we see something like that but more intense some time in the next few years Northern Europe had that this summer. Where records are just crushed. I’ll call it the forky pattern

Absolute nightmare last week. Mid 90s on the sand and you had to have every inch of skin covered. They blow away mosquitos for annoyance factor. And they swarm

I agree verbatim it’s a big erosion mess. We are way way out though. As others have said and using the don Sutherland rule chances are high it’s out to sea. One thing that’s always missed is a fish storm is not a fish storm. All we have to do is get Florence to about 30/50 and it will send large long period swells. That’s almost certain now and days on end of big surf kills people every September. Life guards go off duty and the waters are warm. People think they can handle it and get stuck in a rip current. At Jones beach we are open with life guards for another 2 weeks. At most beaches life guards are finished for the season.

Back to cannot buy a drop of rain pattern on the island. While we watch central New Jersey get soaked. Patterns have been incredibly consistent.

You did not want to be at the beach today. The north wind brought an incredible ammount of black flies which bite. It was unbearable. Pretty much everyone that came down quickly left. The worst I have seen in 20 years guarding. Water temps were cool today with upwelling a dark green/brown and upper 60s. The past week they were in the upper 70s and almost turquoise on the onshore wind.

My thermometer on my truck which is relatively accurate was 92 leaving Jones beach about an hour ago. One of the hottest days on the beach in a long time with a NW wind.

Gotta love NYC at the bottom of the list, reality it should have been the hottest (or at least near the top) That north east wind is going to feel amazing...

Down on the subway platform in Manhattan currently I will have to say this is the hottest I have felt it down here. I really need to buy a hand held digital anemometer/thermometer. I would have to imagine it’s around 120 down here.

You know you have me there. It’s insanely hot in in the city right now. Definitly the worst “feeling” day of the summer. I actually went into work an hour later then normal to avoid the peak of the heat.

The good news is the tripol pattern in the Atlantic looks to super charge some nor’easters this winter. I would think the chances of seeing another 1/4/18 type blizzard is pretty high

The 98 derecho was def one of my favorite weather events. I was life guarding at Eisenhower pool in east meadow. I was on break as the storm moved in and it went from day light to dark as night. The winds coming across the park were incredible. I actually saw multiple trees fall. Several Fiberglass garbage cans became airborne and hit the aquatics center and exploded. The entire dome was shaking and the hanging lighting fixtures swayed. I remember the wind lasted for a long time. Much longer then with a traditional thunderstorm gust front. I also remember seeing swirling dust coming up from the baseball fields. Epic event

I’m in Manhattan right now and just left Long Island. I can promoe you it feels several degrees warmer here. I’m on 116th and broadway so not even the heart of midtown. This is getting out of control and it infuriates me to no end.

Deceivingly dark clouds off to my north at Jones beach currently. Radar shows nothing but has the look of a storm moving in.

The flooding that did occur happened for the usual suspects. In the windward upslope rain forests. Since those areas are incredibly wet to begin with they tend to be sparsely populated. You can go from an area that sees rain 300+ days a year to an area that sees rain a few days a year in a relatively quick drive in Hawaii.

Glad everything worked out. I got ripped for saying this would be palm fronds down and Isolated major flooding ...

Pretty typical rainfall pattern for Oahu as the flow is similar to the trades. You often see these intense areas of rain on the east side that dry up before they reach Waikiki. Like I said in an earlier post I have seen 6”+ in 12 hours while I was staying at sharks cove on kam highway on the north shore. So far it seems all the rain has been following pretty traditional patterns which should mitigate damage.

It seems like the core has finally succumbed to the shear. If the were still flying into lane I doubt they would find more then a cat 1.

The bouys have a hard time accurately measuring wind speeds due to the fact that they spend so much time down in the troughs of the waves and the sea spray present in the air. It’s possible the winds were much stronger. The biggest take home from the obs is that as expected the southern part of the circulation is much weaker