LongBeachSurfFreak

33 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Even when there's no precip it still seems to be mostly cloudy.  If there's no storm around where exactly are all these clouds coming from? For example, after today it's supposed to be mostly cloudy for the rest of the week, but there are no storm systems around.  Is this because we don't have any strong fronts to clear us out?

It’s called El Niño, amped up pac jet and allot of onshore flow. We haven’t had your normal winter polar/arctic highs which bring days of brilliant sunshine. 

Some mangled flakes in lynbrook currently. Looks like the north shore along the hills In Suffolk might be in for a surprise (not really a surprise as it was modeled) 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Guess we’ll find out. Fingers crossed. I’ve noticed that enhanced area across the middle of the island for the last day or so on the high res models but sometimes they overdo elevation enhanced snow/precip. 

Maybe on top of Jane’s hill at just under 400’ the snowiest place on the island. 
Meanwhile at my uncles place at 1900’ just south of Binghamton on the Pa side 6” of snow globe snow. 

2 minutes ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yup. A few miles north of me has over an inch apparently. I got nothing 

Sound enhancement nothing on the uws

Hate to break it to the metro people but this one’s a dud. Half inch of high ratio fluff. The streak continues.

1 hour ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Looking the radar,its coming bud ..this winter everything has trended north not south yet the models keep it south and drying up lol

For dca. Bwi, looks great down there, but draw a line and that’s south/central Jersey. 

It’s fully possible the city north gets nothing. Heading in, soon for snow removal. Would not be surprised that the extreme amount of salt we put down may prevent anything from accumulating 

One would think it’s currently light snow on western li based on the radar. But not even a flurry. So we are fight dry air. I get ratios will be high but I think we loose allot to virga. 

12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

anything having to do with overfishing has to do with humans, you see this problem around the world, not just here.

blaming sea robins is lol worthy.

 

There’s so so so much more too it then that. The bunker population is enormous now feeding all the sharks (and I have caught plenty of southern species) it’s more about the rise in water temps. Winter flounder and lobsters are cold water species, they are moving north. 

28 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

Thanks, JM.  A question.... where does it run off to?  The lowest ground it can find? And when it gets there does it freeze there (the freezing rain equivalent of a snow drift I guess lol)

 

There was definitely allot of ice in the trees still on the north shore of queens on the drive home on the cross island. Pretty typical in marginal events. I saw the report of .25” accreditation in east hills, I could see that. Once the the southern state no ice, and this was about 330 today. 

2 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I’ll tell ya, I haven’t even pushed past 22 degrees so far today. Got out of work early and the ride down the parkway was beautiful with white all the way down to me. 

Looking at the sat image @MANDAposted I’m very fortunate because the snowcover just made it to me, any further south looks like whatever fell was wiped out (or not much fell in the first place, I don’t know the stats for what fell south of me). 

3 inches down to about 1 and change, but what’s left is an absolute glacier right now. Very nice, actually. 

Hoping Friday pans out with a couple to a few more inches, but the brief checks on the models today wasn’t yielding much confidence there. I’ll settle for the cold…

It’s glacial. Snow removal has been brutal. Salt almost no effect when temps below 20. My manager just doesn’t seem to get this concept. (More salt, more salt on the radio alllllll day today) 

ummm we are making a mess and it’s not working 

29 minutes ago, SBUWX23 said:

You can see where there may be problems in CT, and any shift south that could reach LI too. It's a fine line. Never a fan of inverted troughs 

Exactly. They have historically overproduced in spots and failed in others. Winners and losers incoming for sure. Someone gets a surprise 6” and others a dusting. 

Biggest thing to remember with this storm is ratios will be high. So it doesn’t take much qpf to drop a couple inches of fluff. It’s been a while since we have had an event like this. 

4 minutes ago, kat5hurricane said:

No, the last 2 winters is not the norm. I grew up in the late 80s and 90s and never experienced back to back winters like this. The snow drought we've been through is unprecedented and now we have people (even a meteorologist mind you) saying that it normally takes a miracle to get snow around here. Lets gain some perspective, what we've seen the last 2 years is not the norm. Even in bad years, we usually still get double digits.

Agreed, full on strike out winters are not the norm north of 40 north. Maybe down by Richmond. I think we will make double digits this year though. We all know cpk often under measures so we really can’t use that as a baseline. 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

yes 2 inches of ice on the south shore was a sight to behold-- and we had layers of sleet and snow under that lol-- it was like walking on an iceberg!

 

I remember we tried to go sledding at cedar creek and you couldn’t walk up the hill. That’s some serious ice accretion!

2 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I wonder how they would have done in 1993-94 with all that snow and ice combined and I remember we ran out of salt that season.

A huge ice storm is my worst nightmare for snow removal. Luckily the last big one was way before my time. They happen, but are rare near the coast. I’ll never forget the look of the trees in the sun after the 94 ice storm.

It’s been a nightmare of a snow removal

event do to the ice and duration. Our crew is shot. Nothing worse than a glaze of ice and temps around 20. Salt becomes increasingly ineffective when the temps are 20 or below. 

Still all snow uws, I’m exhausted I have been up

all night doing snow removal. I would estimate 2” here a few miles north of the park.

8 minutes ago, wdrag said:

That makes it 1.4 for CP for entire event through 7AM.  

Wow they finally reasonably accurately measured. I’m going with 2” on the uws 

Nada so far uws. 

10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

I saw it mentioned that Pinatubo might have influenced the 1993-94 winter which was consistently much colder and snowier/icier than anyone ever expected (and with a very + NAO to boot!)

I do know it made the summer of 1992 absolutely horrible-- it rained every day that summer.

 

93/94 wasn’t as great right at the coast. I remember taking the bus home from wantagh middle school up by the southern state in snow and hitting Merrick road and it was raining. One of my earliest weather memories and what got me fascinated with Long Islands weather. Could easily see that tomorrow morning.

1 hour ago, the_other_guy said:

I lived on the beach in Wading River my whole life. It happens. It sucks. They will replenish in spring. The noreaster winters are the worst for beach erosion.

 

 

you’re a good poster, but you have a very strong glass half empty view of winter around here. it undermines your skill.

Next week is going to be cold for the type of winter (shit) we’ve had so far. Two legitimate snow chances.

And if past el Ninos are any indication, that may be it. Loaded February isnt a guarantee. So, glass half full and enjoy it.

While you are right on the money about nor’easters, those are worse for the north shore and Jersey. These have been cutters with SE winds and have had extremely large fetch’s. That’s why south facing beaches are getting rocked. It’s really a serious situation. Our life guard shack at Jones beach which was obviously rebuilt after sandy, hasn’t flooded since. Well it had feet of water the last storm. Meaning all the equipment we store over winter is screwed.

Just now, bluewave said:

I only picked up 2” mostly on the grass here before the rain and warmth melted it. I am concerned about the beach erosion on Long Island continuing into the fall. It looks like a very active hurricane season coming up with the record Atlantic SSTs and La Niña.

 

The beaches can’t even take the next storm. Im

currently watching the pacific blvd cam and and the waters to the boardwalk. All that sand added after sandy is gone. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Maybe two shots next week ;-)

We are both lynbrook guys now, and we for sure had at least a half an inch during the last storm. Im right at the northern tip of lynbrook. But the yard was def snow covered for a bit. So we aren’t striking out so to speak.