LongBeachSurfFreak

9 minutes ago, MANDA said:

Per satellite visible satellite loop low clouds eroding west to east pretty quickly.  Should warm up nicely once the sun breaks out.

Agreed, temps will shoot up the second the sun comes out. This time of year working on the uws and living on the south shore of Long Island, the temp differences are extreme. Yesterday left work in shorts and Tshirt and was freezing when I got home. 

5 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

And just to give a sense of how insane the VEI scale and explosive volcanism in general gets, assuming Ruang hits a minimal VEI 5 of 1 cubic kilometer (St Helens was 1.2 cubic kilometer, much of that erupted laterally), it would have to further erupt 10x more volume to reach a minimal VEI 6 (around what Hunga Tonga did, and a little less than Pinatubo).

From current levels (again assuming 1 cubic kilometer - a minimal VEI 5), it would have to erupt 100x more material to reach a VEI 7, 150x in the case of Tambora. 

To reach a ‘supereruption’ at VEI 8, it would need 1000x its current erupted volume. 

The Toba supereruption 75kya was 3500-5000x this hypothetical VEI 5 Ruang eruption. 

I really hope I get to experience a VEI 7 in my lifetime. Purely from a meteorological perspective. Too much to write in regards to how incredible that would be in the face of global warming. 

7 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

Work inside then

Exactly, that’s why I switched careers at 30. Nothing worse than being stuck in a windowless cubicle when you’re a weather enthusiast. Now I get to experience every weather event. I would never go back.

3 hours ago, jm1220 said:

It also looks like a central based Nina which is bad for E Coast snow south of far upstate NY/New England. Our odds small as they are hinge on the high ACE panning out, if that disappoints it’ll be an easy slam the blinds. Hopefully the high ACE means mostly recurves but the precip anomaly maps for summer hint at lots of activity off FL/Carolinas tracking north towards us vs OTS. These steeper Bermuda High ridges recently lead to more of these outcomes. 

Those Caribbean cruiser/ GOF seasons aren’t great for Long Island surfers, so I’ll pass.

Personally I think this season will be so hyperactive there will be activity everywhere. That and the eastern MDR being so freakishly warm leads to a tendency for early development and strengthening which favors recurves.

28 minutes ago, SACRUS said:

 

 

1012 is seriously weak sauce. No wonder the rain didn’t materialize…

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Could be another nice event for the ski resorts.

Not much still open unfortunately. Killington always goes super late though and would benefit 

3 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

Following last night's rainstorm at the New York Botanical Garden.

Don, I respect your integrity but the first pic is suspect. Are you sure that was taken today? You know I’m a horticulturalist at Columbia and a huge climate change backer but that pic seems off. We are barely cracking buds on the earliest flowering trees here. And maybe a few daffodils…

2 hours ago, TWCCraig said:

Gusts as high as 46mph at ISP and 50mph at JFK so far

It was roaring in lynbrook earlier. Kind of in a lol

now that the low is closing in. 

2.32” at the wantagh meso so far. Roads were fine on the way into work. Over 4” on the week, should be around 6” by the weekend. 

Long Island about to get smoked

31 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Buckle up chicken man. You about to go back to winter. 10 days away here's a 5 day composite  oh and Congrats Dendy

One thing I will agree with, is there happens to be a strong low during that time, you could bring some of that cold down to the surface. That’s where your snow potential exists. 

You know things are bad (especially for the ski resorts) when these are the overnight obs from the top of Mt. Washington last night…

4 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It will be interesting to see if the Euro is correct about the enhanced tropical activity from the Caribbean into the Gulf.

 

 

That’s a very solid east coast landfall look. I wouldn’t if there are multiple landfalls from Florida to the NE including majors. 

4 hours ago, Allsnow said:

Brutal 

Hopefully we do not end up with the whole water table rising this month. October 05 the entire block I grew up on had 1-2’ of water in the basement. And in that case there isn’t much you can do about it until the levels drop. It’s not a flash flood more like a prolonged mess. 

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

has anyone in Manhattan other than the official  NWS recording station measured higher then 7.5 inches this winter ? Or has anyone in any other section of the city Brooklyn Queens etc. etc. measured more than 7.5 ?

I recorded 11.5” for the season at 120th and Broadway. Obviously the park was low, first Feb event 5.5” while the park was 3.2” for example.

37 minutes ago, Volcanic Winter said:

I honestly completely agree. We have warmth and humidity so much of the year anymore I want March to be seasonably cool to cold yet. We have the entire spring ahead of us post March and rest assured everyone will get their warmth and sun. 

I mean no disrespect to anyone but it is a little surprising to me how little all of the winter enthusiasts here seem to appreciate cool weather in general though. Our warm season outweighs the cool season significantly anymore, especially with summer increasingly lagging into Sep and Oct. 

And we’ve been having plenty of early heatwaves like last April. Idk, I appreciate the cool weather when we can get it (which unfortunately isn’t now). 

Cheering on unseasonable warmth, IMHO, feels like cheering on our worsening climate issues. 

There are plenty of us who love the seasons being the way they are supposed to be. I’m a horticulturalist and these early warmups are awful for dormant plants. If it’s going to get warm early it has to stay warm or we risk damage. 

40 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

the 50s were an amazing time, I wonder what was going on then that no matter how many or few total TCs there were, there were always multiple ones (including majors) hitting the NE coast.

the heatwaves during the 50s were also very long and we had multiple 100+ degree long heatwaves which we don't see anymore-- from June through September!  Worcester even got hit with an F5 tornado during one of those extremely hot years!

 

It’s above my skill level but I’m sure someone can go pack and look at the synoptic pattern in 54 specifically. It’s really just a roll of the dice. A pattern conducive to a north east landfall exists multiple times a year, it’s just a matter of lining up a cane with said pattern. 

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

It's always low, and we seem to be out of the era that get major east coast hurricanes coming this far north, I'd expect yet another gulf coast and florida hurricane season.  We're also very tucked in so any hurricanes making it this far north are likely to hit Nova Scotia instead.

If you look at the history of majors in the north east there is one about every 70 years. So I would hardly say we have switched out of that pattern. On the contrary we are due. It’s only anger of time. Cat 3 winds will decimate the power grid, and make sandy look like a walk in the park: 

11 hours ago, the_other_guy said:

actually, I’m a skier. There’s a bunch of skiers on here and you may not want snow, but the lack of cold air up in the mountains is going to cut short a season that is very expensive.

 

Locally ski season goes until April 1. For those of us that buy season passes we bank on skiing several times in March.

More importantly, in an economically depressed state like New York, people in the Hudson Valley Catskills Adirindacks, depend on people skiing for four or five months of the year for their livelihood. there are a few other jobs up there outside of tourism

 

 

March has always been my favorite month in the mountains. Tons of snow, fully open terrain, slightly warmer weather and diminishing crowds. Not looking promising outside of the furthest north mountains, like White Face, Jay and Sugarloaf. Depending on how it plays out I may do a long weekend at sugarloaf.

10 hours ago, MJO812 said:

It’s never a lock that we see a hurricane locally, but odds are certainly higher than normal this season. I fully expect a parade of major hurricanes coming out of the MDR this season. 

11 minutes ago, Fresh cold air said:

Don, are you able to provide those sea ice extents like you used to in past years?  Just wondering if we are near that death spiral we were in a decade or so ago.

There’s a climate change sub forum with a thread on sea ice. 

Really roaring currently at in Lynbrook. I do not have an anemometer (besides a hand held) but based off the sound in the trees some of the strongest gusts in a couple of years.  

53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the Jan 2018 bomb cyclone could have done it if it was just closer to the coast. was a triple phaser like 250 miles offshore and still brought major snow

We do not even need something that strong. A nice loop track like 1888 with 2020’s moisture would do the trick. 1888 is far and above the best winter storm in our area after 1850. With a snow board I’m sure NYC had 30+.

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

yeah we've dealt with worse. this is a crappy stretch, don't get me wrong, but we also just had 2020-21 and likely have some more winters that break that 30" mark in the future soon enough

What I would really like to see before we pass the tipping point is an area wide 30”+ mega storm. What we really need is a reshuffle to get us back to a more -epo pattern again. Hopefully this will El Niño reshuffled the deck. 
A super high ACE season looks like a lock, which often precedes a good winter. We don’t need much to beat the last 3.

A couple of sleet pellets mixed with rain currently on the uws. Looking forward to warmer days.