LongBeachSurfFreak

Continuous lightning right now with the cell skirting the south shore. Haven’t seen lightning this prolific in a while. Only managing light rain in lynbrook. 

1 hour ago, steve392 said:

Drizzle. What looked very promising just completely dried up.  I'm trying to understand what was over nenj/nyc are to cause it to literally evaporate? 

Marine stability, no focusing mechanism for convention. Need lift, like a strong seabreeze front or warm/cold front. Tomorrow we should at least see some precipitation. 

33 minutes ago, lee59 said:

Looks like first batch says no to Long Island.

Absolutely zero surprise there.

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Grass is drying out here quickly over the past couple days.    Could use a shower-hopefully tonight-tomorrow looks drier now on 12z runs

Likely scattered convection, likely the usual suspects the big winners. Coastal central Jersey being the perpetual jackpot.

This image really puts things in perspective of how small this tropical storm is in comparison with the Epac system.

Atlantic really struggling to produce anything meaningful while adding named storms.

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah, pull the politics out of it—this sounds like a classic case of bureaucrats making decisions that don’t work in the real world. 

How many times have we sat here thinking tropical storm/hurricane X is “about to take off” or “is weakening due to an ERC” or “we need a center fix for the 00z models” only to have MW or recon data blow away our preconceived notions?

I mean my goodness. Who wants to try to forecast if a cane off the east coast of Florida is about to undergo RI based on that quality of data below when recon is six hours away?

 

Exactly. This has major real world implications. Especially in the age of marine heatwaves and unprecedented RI. The way people react to a cat 2 and a cat 5 might mean not evacuating and potentially deaths. 

15 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

People need to stop creating concrete jungles, not only is it cooler outside of the city, it's also less polluted and much easier to sleep at night and breathe clean air with far lower rates of asthma.

So we should abandon cities and destroy rural areas and turn them into endless suburbs. 
The reality from the perspective of the planet is the EXACT OPPOSITE. We want more people in tightly packed cities and less McMansions on quarter acre lots. Upstate NY reforesting over the last century is a great example of what we want to see. 

11 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Still 84 and muggy at home. Missed all the rain, the beach got a nice storm

Missed jones to the east and west. We had a possible shark attack today I’m sure it’s all over the media 

18 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Pretty cool

 

Really starting to drop off at JB. Should swing around shortly and the temp will shoot up from mid 80s to mid 90s right on the ocean. Tonight’s going be a steam bath. 

7 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

just hit 103.6 again what sea breeze lol

There it is, fully kicking in now. Only a matter of time before it gets there.

1 minute ago, hooralph said:

Just reached KNYC and it’s clocking a bit over 97 at the moment. In fairness, the station gets a bit of sun as you can see. It’s not shrouded in the trees. General assessment from my walk: 99-100 in the blocks on the UWS and 97 ish in the park.

the 100.4 was Madison Ave

Awesome thank you for that! It obviously has allot to do with the fact that it’s just in a green space.

Park 91 is a joke as usual.

winds WSW now at jones beach. Just enough onshore component to make it bearable here 

97 on the southern state just now on the truck thermometer. 

13 minutes ago, Sundog said:

Cars have dew on them, we must have had some radiational "cooling" all the way down to the whopping mid 70s haha

Park and EWR look to have matched yesterdays lows. 

1 minute ago, psv88 said:

It’s still early for high heat out here, ocean is still cold. 

Yep, without an offshore wind it’s fine. It’s next to impossible to maintain an offshore flow the entire day when the water temp is in the 60s.

7 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Beautiful evening out there, cooled down nicely, 78

Yeah it’s honestly not that bad on the south shore right now. Tomorrow morning while the wind is NW should be the worst for the coast. 

Just now, LibertyBell said:

Good, keep it there :-)

Today’s not the day for record heat on the island. It’s always been about Tuesday. 

Sea breeze is officially here at jones beach. Was dead calm 45 minutes ago. Temps already coming down 

It’s all going to come down to wind direction for the coast today. EWR is a lock for 100 coming of a low of 82.

55 minutes ago, Rjay said:

This is the best shot in a while but I have my doubts. 99 sounds about right.  

NYC 95 and EWR 110.

JFK has the best shot of setting an all time June record Tuesday. With compressional downslope heating. I’m not looking forward to 10000000 degree sand at the beach, it can get hot enough to cause 1st degree burns fast. 

3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

As a strong believer in climate change and global warming I think this is ridiculous and outrageous. There have been heatwaves going way back. By allowing yourself to rate climate change according to the weather on a day or two you are promoting the ability of deniers to come back when it snows or is cold for a day or two and say, "see there's no climate change". It's absurd and it is NOT what climate change is. It is far bigger and based on statistics globally over 100s of years. It is not a hot day or a snowstorm.

WX/PT

Where climate change is a factor is in the strength and staying power of the ridge. If we hit 600dm that likely is directly attributable to CC. We can break that record and still not break temp records. JFK needs a wind vector of WNW to NW, for a daily record. The Park needs surrounding stations to be 105 to hit 100. So lots of little intricacies on a local level. 

3 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Cat 4. Really hitting on some higher potential energy in the tropics with a Cat 5 storm in the Atlantic last July 1 and this one in mid-June. 

Would have really gone to town if it had more time after the EWRC. 

1 minute ago, jm1220 said:

 Velocities looked pretty intense going through the south shore barrier islands. 

It was sub severe here. But close, gusts definitely at least in the 40s with small branches down. Best storm of the year for sure. 

That bow coming up from central Jersey may be the real deal for the south shore