1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

I think at some point people will start removing these trees that cause the fires, I've already seen talk of it on various forums "the only way to prevent the fires is to remove the fuel which causes them"

 

Which is impossible over thousands of miles of boreal forests in northern Canada. Just like the fires last summer couldn’t be put out. There is zero infrastructure, no roads, thousands of lakes and bogs not to mention mosquitoes swarms that block out the sun. 

58 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/23/nyregion/flaco-owl-central-park-zoo-dead.html

 

He was able to avoid vehicles by sticking largely to rooftops, water towers and other elevated elements of the built environment after leaving Central Park last fall. But the risk that he would be killed in a building strike was great: As many as 230,000 birds a year die in New York City when they hit windows, according to the National Audubon Society.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2024/feb/24/flaco-new-york-citys-beloved-owl-dies-after-striking-building

 

 

News of the owl’s death caused an intense reaction on social media. More than 1,000 users reposted the zoo’s announcement of Flaco’s death on X, formerly known as Twitter.

“This is an immense loss,” read one comment that summarised the sentiments of many on the platform. “I’m so grateful for everyone who came together to witness Flaco’s incredible journey.”

Another X user suggested tearing down the building where Flaco crashed.

The Eurasian eagle-owl is one of the larger species. Flaco’s wingspan was reported to be about 6ft (1.8m).

Federal officials estimate that up to one billion birds in the US die annually after accidentally flying into buildings’ windows.

In October 2020, ornithologist Stephen Ambrose wrote on LinkedIn that there was evidence light glare from city buildings’ windows could blind owls momentarily and increase their risk of crashing into the structures, especially at night.

 

 

He would have died eventually from arsenic poisoning. He was subsisting exclusively on rats which are loaded with arsenic from eating bait traps. The rats are building an immunity to rat poison over time. 

3 hours ago, Volcanic Winter said:

Yeah, we’re all incredibly lucky as snow lovers to have lived through that period, whether we recognized it at the time or otherwise. 

I do believe that was the intersection of favorable decadal variability and a “boon” from warming that hadn’t progressed to the point of hurting enough to offset things just yet. 

As I alluded to above, I hope when ‘built in’ favorability swings back around, we’re still able to capitalize on it. It’s extremely debatable and I’m not suggesting I have the answers, merely hoping. One more epic winter would go down nicely for all of us after the 2016 to present period (which of course wasn’t terrible all the time, thankfully - but it has been significantly warmer in the winter since, the temperature stats on recent winters have been extremely jarring to say the least, and we’re not talking anything theoretical here just what was actually observed). 

I’ll tell ya Liberty, I’d be extremely intrigued by a Tambora sized eruption happening in our lifetimes. Hopefully an isolated NH volcano without much direct human impact, and a classic gas composition. I don’t think we’d have much risk of a severe volcanic winter in terms of what people faced in 1816, I think we’d simple see a temporary regression in average temperatures for a couple years (we’re so far above the temperatures at the end of the LIA a volcanic winter would be a different animal today, IMO). From our current setpoint I don’t believe it’d be that severe, but a sudden decrease of ~1C would certainly feel like quite a shock.  

What a would give for a VEI 7 in our lifetime. Obviously somewhere unpopulated. Say Kamchatka. I would love to walk across the Hudson to New Jersey, something that happened regularly in the LIA. Solid snow pack from mid November to mid April. The kind of winter you now have to go a thousand miles north for or over  3000’.

I’m fairly confident we are going to see a historic season. The only hindrance from record breaking may be a Nina background state lag early on. Once to peak season, we should fire on all cylinders. I can see a 2017 type parade of high end storms tracking out of the MDR. Bermuda high placement will determine if it’s a CONUS year.

17 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

A Decade of Reflections on My Recovery from Alcoholism

Overcoming & Accepting Losses to Reframe the Narrative of Your Life

If I am being truthful with myself, which is one of the first things you learn to do in recovery, I am honestly not sure of the exact date that I consumed my last drink. From what I can recall, I made the consious committment with a promise to my ailing father late in the winter of 2014, approximately one week before learning that he would be placed on Hospice care. I approximate this date as February 20th, 2014. However, I  technically relpased in July 2014, just four months following the death of my father on March 5, 2014. While tecnically this validated the presumption of literally everyone around me that the death of my dad would in fact have this impact on me. I can legitimately say that in all honestly it actually had the opposite impact on my life in the most profound manner imaginable.The truth is that I hadn't realized that the jello-shot that I ingested that summer night had alcohol in it. Thus I had remained true to my conviction and acted in accordance with the higher power that my father now representes, which to me is the very essence of my sobriety. As far as I am concerned, today, February 20th, 2024, makes 10 years of sobriety for me. And it is this past decade worth of evolution and metamorphis that has completely reshaped the lens throuugh which I view life. And consequently the narrative with which I identify. But that change did not happen abruptly. It was the most arduous and excruciating of journeys imaginable to arrive at the most wonderful and gratifying destination that is self-actualzation.

 

My Love of Weather isn't the Only Reason that the Middle Name of all of My Children Represent Seasons. This Hangs in My Office as a Reminder of the Perserverence & Resilinece it Takes to Carry on Afrer Reaching "Rock Bottom"

 

 

Rule #1: In order to accept losses one needs to be truthful

 

Addiction is synonymous with loss. Loss of health. Loss of job. Loss of relationships. Loss of both the trust of others and trust in one self. What all of this culminates in is the loss of integrity, personal conviction and self-esteem. In some cases even the loss of life. It is impossible to value others when you do not value yourself. This descent into moral/spiritual and physical decay is insidious because it entails a decreased level of consciousness, as sort of a protective defense mechanism of the psyche that makes it easier to accept as the personal degradation continues. This is reflected by the ease with which we make decsions that are not in accordance with our conscious, which results in internal conflict and strife that contributes to the obliteration of our sense of self. Thus making it easier to continue making poor decisions. Treating others with respect is virtually impossible when we do not value ourselves and through our actions have forged pathways in the brain that predispose us to making impulsive decisions with a decreased level of consciousness.

In order to put this into proper context, cessation of the substance is the "easy" part; then the real work of dealing with all of this psychological carnage can begin. And given that there is a radius of impact at play, there is also a great amount of damage inflicted to loved ones, as well. This makes earning back the trust of others a long and deliberate process, but not at all impossible in most cases. Once the drinking/drug use stops, a funny thing happens in that you escape that distorted and diseased sense of reality that developed as a protective measure to justify and perpetuate the substance use. It becomes possible to view life obvectively, and while it very well may not be very asthetically pleasing in the immediate aftermath of addicton, you can begin to garner an accurate assessment of what needs to be done and in so doing redevelop trust in yourself. Over time you become accustomed to doing whatever it is that you feel is right again, which is often congruent with treating others in a respectful manner.

Acceptance of relaity in early recovery is tremendously difficult because it requires a truthful personal inventory of the state of one's life. This entailed my acceptance of the fact that I was 32 years old, single and still living with my mother, which in and of itself is fine. However, in my case, it also meant that I needed to, for the first time in my life, accept the reality that I had failed to avail myself of a multitude of opportunities and relatively plentiful resources out of fear. Fear of failure and fear or judegement. Fear of my father's mortality. Fear of the day-to-day grind of being a functioning adult. These are all normal emotions that instead of becoming more adept at managing with the passage of time, one develop a proclivity for short term relief via substance use, which begins to breed dependency that infects our bodies, and spreads throughout our sense of self and psycyhe like cancer. And as the disease progresses, not only is our ability to assess life in decline, but so is our ability manage it all while the issues that necessitate management continue to mount. The reality is that you can chose to drive blind folded, but the vehcile of life can not be stopped. In hindsight, the choice of whether to drive with the benefit of sight is your's to make. Ten years ago today, on February 20th 2014, for the first time many years, I chose to remove the blind fold and actually have a fighting chance at navigating life. It was time to face the reality that my father's opportunity to see me make something of myself had come and gone and all I had to show for it was a second OUI conviction. And I only had myself to blame. I have a lifetime to live with that. It was time to face just how far I had fallen behind my peers. It was time to face the fact that my crude attempt at freezing time by blacking-out muiltiple times per week did nothing of the sort, and only left me further behind and less equipped to deal with its passage. 

The cruelest irony of all was that these were all fears that actually fostered my dependency on alcohol, and as insidious and cunning as alcoholism is, it only ensured that they came about rather than me from them.

.

Rule #2: Its not what has happened that defines you. Its what is happening and what is going to happen.

My Late Father Actually Typed This Out In A desperate Plea to End My Rumination Over the Past And Allow Me to Focus on My Future. The Rest is History and Ten Years Later It Remains Framed in My Office

Today there is a certain duality to my recovery in that I am able to compartamentalize the past in order remain mindful of it without being consumed by it. This allows me to also be present in the moment in order to focus on the current and future welfare of myself and my family. But this was not always the case. My late father spent the better part of the last year of his life pleading with me and desperately trying to will me out of the spiraling abyss of rumination that had consumed my life. There he lay dying and all he could concern himself with was me and whether or not I would be okay and ever begin laughing again like I used to. There I was so mired in self-aborption and pity that I never did take the time the make that one weekend excrusion to Cooperstown to see the MLB Hall of Fame that he always wanted. Sure, I ended up asking while he was bed-ridden in Hospice care even though I knew it was too late. We mutually settled on a postponement until after a recovery that we both knew would never come.

• A) One of the primary reasons I drank was to escape the reality of his mortality.
• The reason I was so ill-prepard to face his mortality was that I drank. 
• C) The primary reason that I no longer drink is my ultimate ability to accept his mortality.

 If there were every a crude schematic for "dummies" as to the progression of the recovery from alcholism, this is it. Trigger-consequence for mal adaptive response-insight and acceptance. 

Following the passing of my father, gradually the preoccupation with missed opportunity, failure to accrue potential perceived wealth and failed relationships began to subside and I was able to realize the opportunity that laid before me. For the first time in my life, I had to incur consequences without having them removed. I had a job I hated, I lost my driver's license for over a year a mere 20 days following the death of my father and yet another relationship was over. But as I finally began to slow the seemingly endless cycle of self-pity and rumination, both the present and future began to come into better focus. I could appreciate the fact that owning my behavior, accepting responsibility and emerging from this turmoil without being propped up by my father posed a unique and novel opportunity for me begin to more independently carve out a life and begin to respect myself again. 

 

This Momento Hanging in my office is Symbolic of the Mindset that it Takes to End the Cycle of Rumination & Fully Commit to Recovery

The time being single allowed me to focus within as opposed to my previous aversion to doing so. And actually develop a plan for my life that included going back to school to get my MSW and ultimately leaving the job that I hated so much. The key to ending misery is taking action to do something abouty your misery. Go figure-

Taking action early on in recovery represents a crucial vehicle for the shift in perspective from one that laments life to one that sees the potential of life. When I had reached that low point in my existence, I had never felt so different from the father that I respected so much and was convinced that I was that "apple that fell so hopelessly very far from the tree". But over time I began to enjoy life again and it wasn't until many years later, aided by a greatly enhanced breadth of perspective, that I could appreciate just how much like my father I really was.  He had become the man that he was by coming from a family of very limited means and overcoming adversity. And for the first time in my life, I had also perservered in the face of tremendous adversity. It is these qualities that he had so desperately tried to will into me and unseccesfully instill in me, that I was ultimately able to develop through perserverence. What he failed to tech me in life he instilled in death. The reality is that it sometimes takes a hole as gigantic as the one seared by the throes of addiction for the beam of enlightment to shine through. No one has given me my sobriety. I have earned it. Recovery from addiction affords people with a unique opportunity and breadth of perspective that can only be gleaned through enduring that unique hell at rock bottom and having the strength and resiliency to rebuiild oneself from the gorund up. There is a reason that the most compelling of movie scripts always feature a period of tension and doubt through which the main characters ultimately perservere. Anyone in recovery has the opporunity to write that script as long as they still have a pulse and air in their lungs. Its crucial to always remember that you hold the pen to the script for the narrative of your life and that is a temendous power. But in order to take advantage of that, it is imperative to both let go and accept the past so that all energy can be allocated towards the present and the future. "Accepting and letting go" of the past simply implies that rumination comes to an end and relaity is accepted, however, this does not prohibit the ability to remain mindful of lessons learned and therein lays the duaility of recovery. This is a delicate balance that is always refined over a lifetime and what makes maintaining this even more challening is the changes to the brain that take place during extended periods of addiction.

 

Rule #3: You don't need to teach an old dog new tricks. But rather news ways of doing the same tricks.

 

I recently had a psychotherapy client lament to me in session that "you can't teach an old dog new tricks". What he was referring to was a certain rigidity regarding thought patterns and proclivities that have been forged over a lifetime that were causing issues in his life. As a recovering alcoholic, my mind immediately drew a parallel to my own personal journey through recovery and the personality traits and thought patterns that rendered my susecpitble to it. My response to him was "you do not have to teach an old dog new tricks". I then proceeded to reframe his thought pattern using a strength-based perspective that could potentially be advantageious for him, as opposed to self-defeating. This is a perspective that is directly applicable to those recovering from addiction.

There is no cure for addiction; this is why we are always "recovering" and never "recovered". The key is, much like I articulated to my client, to view the trait(s) as a strength and seek outlets to utilize those obsessive tendnecies constructively instead of deconstructively. Accept them as being a part of you because they are. In lieu of drinking, I rellocated that energy towards my passion for sports and became involved in fantasy baseball. I channeled that obsessive proclivity into starting a blog amd earning my LICSW, where I focused on my passion for meteorology much more extensively and utilized my own personal exerience to assit others in empowering themselves. I immersed myself in exercise much more intensely and refined my weight training program. Addiction and the obsessive prolcivities that drive and accompany it can not be cured, but they can be harnassed and rechanneled towards productive outlets to provide the structure necessary to continue on the road to recovery and overall enhanced quality of life. 

 

Conclusions

There are a few folks in my network who are mindful of my 10 year anniversary and the question of how large of a sobriety chip is awarded for 10 years has been posed. My answer is invariably four pretty damn large ones that epitoize everything that was made possible by my sobriety and the changes that were made along with it:

 

 

 

Its no coincidence that I was never able to remain faithful in any relationship until after I stopped drinking. I didn't respect myself enough to maintain the level consciousness necessary to remain faithful to myself, so there was just no way I could remain faithful to anyone else. But through my sobriety I now have the self-respect to honor myself and my family by treating my wife they way that I would like my own daughter to be treate done day. And four years ago on our first wedding anniversary, my wife suprised me with that elusive trip to Cooperstown that my father never made it to. 

The reality is that while my past no longer detracts from my present and future, it still provides some tearful excursions along the way during personal times of relfection, which keep me grounded. The passage of time and collection of experiences has afforded me a certain serenity through which I no longer torment myself over what has happened and instead celebreate what is happening and what is going to happen. I can accept that I just wasn't meant to figure things out until after my father passed because if I were, I would have. And I am confident that if he knew the impact that his loss would have on me, then he would without hesitation have made the sacrafice of never having met his grandchildren and his beautiful daughter-in-law. Hell, knowing what I know now, he never really met me, or at least this version of me that he would have liked to know. I'm from perfect and am still learning to naviagte the issue of loss. I still struggle with the loss of a dear friend just his past year. However, the difference is that today I have both my sobriety and my family, so I have a fighting chance-

Thanks for sharing. I too am in recovery. We are passionate people. As you stated a big part of recovery is learning redirect that passion in positive ways. You do a great job of that with your seasonal forecasts which I enjoy every year.

 Congratulations on 10 years, that’s an amazing accomplishment!

45 minutes ago, the_other_guy said:

Yes. you can write off NYC metro, but mountains have time yet!!

I’m sure you would have said that in 97/98 when NyC was at .5” and on the way to the record only to have that 5” storm in March. March is volatile and probably the hardest month to forecast far out due to the shortening wave lengths. It’s not over yet. 

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Low near the benchmark doesn’t always mean snow. This low is essentially a frontal wave and the cold air is well behind the storm. The northern stream comes in too late well after the storm is gone. We want a high in Canada not another L which throws warm air at us ahead of this storm, and a situation where the northern stream can phase in beforehand. Just a lousy to awful leading setup. 

97/98 was full of benchmark rainstorms. Little bit different scenario, with the entire continent flooded with pacific air, but same net result. 

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

25" or 26" of snow here is a lame (but not disastrous) winter.  Spinning low teens snowfall with almost no cold air into something somehow acceptable is irrational exuberance.

Agreed, while not a full rat winter, this has been more of a Richmond Virginia style winter.

About 2” on the uws, which was exactly my forecast. Curious to see what we got on the south shore. I bet the barrier islands were the winners with close to 6”.

2 hours ago, LibertyBell said:

hey thats going too far lol January 2016 was orders of magnitude better than any of those storms and so was the one we got in January 2018, hours of white out conditions.

Boxing Day was definitely more of a true blizzard than 2016. Winds, visibility, temps and drifting make a blizzard more so then just total accumulation . Boxing Day was far superior in all those categories. It also had a much larger impact on the average NYer with many neighborhoods unplowed and impassible for days. 
Basically moderate pixie dust on the uws 

1 hour ago, Allsnow said:

Anything in the park? 

About 1” on the uws, can’t get above moderate rates. All surfaces snow covered however 

Light snow on the uws. Based on the radar trend on the heavy band looks like this area is going to just a little too far north for the best snow. At home on the south shore of the island we should be in the northern part of the best banding. I’m thinking a Monmouth county jack for our area, it’s been a while!

22 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

^^^

off the charts warm!

Ballistic hurricane season upcoming. May start off slow with the lingering nino effects, but peak season could produce record ACE. Lots of tracking coming. 

23 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

It's good when we get a cold pattern in place with the ocean helping us but yea you are right.  My area stinks for snow but it's way better than Manhattan. 

There are two manhattans. From the north end of the park north, does just fine in marginal events. The northern tip of Manhattan is Almost as far north as the northern Bronx. Midtown south is another story. Concrete jungle. 

A few flurries in lynbrook. Usually with a clipper track like this we would just have drizzle. 

14 minutes ago, allgame830 said:

The area of pecip moving across PA looks pretty juiced up is it supposed to dry up once it reaches our area??

Should drop at least an inch in the poconos then start to break apart. Wouldn’t be surprised if within 20 miles nw of the city sees a coating. In the city temps are too marginal unless it really comes down.

2 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Definitely a big takeaway...mild/snowless winters don't usually turn cold/snowy.   (exceptions like 06-07 do exist)   So had to be skeptical of calls of a big pattern from mid Feb to mid March-in reality it will be a window of about 10-12 days like the one in January.

Yeah, cold and snow cover, makes more cold and snow cover. Kind of how snow ball earth was a runaway feedback cycle to cold. You have record low snow cover over our cold air source region. That’s going to increase solar absorption. We are lucky we even made it to double digits snowfall wise. This could easily have been 97/98 up in till now (.5” cpk)

15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

so this weekend's storm is probably the last snowstorm of the winter?

Way too early to say that with a definite answer. 

8 hours ago, AstronomyEnjoyer said:

Winter has been sucking here, but if it makes you feel any better, check out the current modeled snow depth in the Midwest. I know these maps aren't perfect, but - I'm mean, just wow. Absolutely brutal.

 

The really incredible part is the UP of Michigan. That’s snow heaven. I’m sure they average like a 50” snow depth in February.

21 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Only recent report from Manhattan is 4” from Sam Champions rooftop garden.

 

 

Yeah I measured 5” on the uws average of 10 colder surface measurements. Broadway was plowed here. Whole other world north of the park 

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

The Lady definitely does NOT look happy!

Completely different world a few miles north on the uws. 5” and even Broadway was snow covered and plowed

5 minutes ago, BxEngine said:

Roads arent where snow is measured. 

Broadway on the uws is currently snow covered. Legit heavy snow currently

1 minute ago, LibertyBell said:

It started to change fully to snow at 3 AM and by 3:14 (PI TIME!) it was almost 100% snow.

It was moderate sleet in lynbrook when I left for work (snow removal) at 230. Currently moderate snow UWS with nice big flakes. Getting a coating on the grass.

31 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Hopefully we can get 2 or 3 events before it breaks down...

I think one more is more realistic. But might as well shoot for the stars. Would be nice to at least crack double digits at CPK

What eventually happens in the city will come down to banding. As this is a dynamic rapidly deepening  system with plenty of moisture, 2” hour type bands should set up during the hight of the storm. If they end up over the city, it will accumulate even on pavement. I think the November rush our crusher attests to what rates can do. If we end up with .5” hour rates, it’s a grass storm. (City)