jayyy

Bright yellows currently about 5-10 miles to my west. Patiently waiting. Impressive snow occurring regardless but come to papa

Heavy snow, sticking to all surfaces - we’re definitely getting to 2-3” here at the carroll / Frederick county border, I have zero doubt.

Based on the radar, the NAM definitely nailed the 1 AM firehose of heavy precipitation from N VA into Maryland and southern PA. Pretty spot on honestly. Doesn’t look far off from what the HRDRPS and HRRR have been saying the last 24 hours either. GFS definitely appears to have been owned by mesos this go around.

About to get banded any moment per radar. Going to be a fun next few hours for the northern shen valley over to Frederick, Carroll, northern Baltimore, and Hartford counties

The euro? During game time? No thanks

Last few frames on the radar you can see the rain snow line getting battered between silver spring, Columbia, and west Baltimore. Temps dropping hard as heavier returns roll in. Impressive. NAM doing a better job with this so far than the GFS. Heavy precip setting up shop right over Maryland and it nailed how far north snow would fall

It’s really picked up in the past few minutes here in Union bridge. Radar looks great honestly.

Yep.

So far, as far as where the jet is setting up and precip is blossoming, yesterdays bullish NAM run looks pretty spot on so far

Changeover was awfully quick once that heavier band got overhead. Dusting already commencing

“It’s 60, it won’t snow tomorrow” Yes, yes it will.

Can already kinda tell where the two best areas of precip will be. One qpf jack along the metro corridor and another near the blue ridge. Looks like Berkeley springs up to Everett are getting in some goods right now

Jesus. Precip cut by 80% for some

Eastern HOCO to Baltimore to Hartford sweet spot showing up on a few different models.

41/29

Man, I’d take the 4-5-6” some of these models are printing IMBY in a heartbeat, but I’ll be more than happy with 2 or 3 verifying

Yessir! Temps finally making progress in Carroll county. 46.5/30 here

Super zoomed out but 2-4” for many. MOCO HOCO to BAL 4+, 4-6” back near Staunton again

Latest HRDPS is a nice event for the metro corridor and central md

Likely. Dark sky uses that as well.

What do you think your app uses to determine hour by hour temp, precip, etc?

HoCo / MoCo may be well positioned. Far enough south for enhancement from the jet, far enough away from 95 for temps. Models are all over the place with this setup

Seeing as I’m 18 degrees above freezing, I’ll take my chances

The temp drop is serious. My buddies up in Ohio said it was mid 50s yesterday and hasn’t gotten above 24 all day today. Dews are already pretty low down this way. Temps should drop like a rock. Hope the NAM scores a coup here!

Expecting about 2” up here with some help from elevation and colder temps. Same for PSUland mappyland and clskinsland. I’m sure local 3+“ reports will pop up, but I like a general 2” for our general tier. Someone is going to see a very localized QPF max, as has been the trend all season (as Bob chill referred to above) Models have struggled to pin down that area all season long, but they appear to be honing in on the general area between CHO and Staunton this go around. We won’t know until game time. The biggest question mark for me is the immediate metros (UHI areas) How do temps fare? Do they see heavy enough returns to overcome some of the temp issues that come with a marginal setup where precip and cold are in a foot race? Biggest upside and downside potential exists in this area IMO, especially DC.