jayyy

I’d take P27 at this point honestly if it meant something would materialize for majority of folks! A few inches would make anyone happy after a big dry spell (insert joke here)

Exactly! I lived through a few blizzard warnings in the lower Hudson valley that called for 1-3 feet PLUS the strong winds (typically in the 35-40mph range) from some of the epic nor’easters of the 90s and early 2000s, but certainly never 4-5 feet and 70 mph wind gusts. Down here in the MA, we tend to get either WSW’s for heavy snow accumulations, or blizzard warnings for the wind but rarely do we see BWs for both the winds AND heavy snow accumulation - and def. nowhere near that magnitude of either.

4 degrees with a -16 real feel. Unreal. .

My buddy has lived there his entire life and said to me quote, I have never seen it snow this hard in 42 years. Their blizzard warning has been upped to 4-5 feet for downtown and the immediate suburbs .

Traced! At least it’s not 0.0” [emoji41] .

Unreal lake effect coming off Erie right now with lake shore flooding. What a scene. My buddy just sent me a video from his house in Cheektowaga NY. Can’t see at all out his windows. 3” per hour rates with winds near 50mph. 2-3 feet of snow PLUS this bitter cold and wind is as wintry as it gets. .

My friend near Saratoga springs NY, north of Albany, was at 54 less than an hour ago while it’s 10 here in union bridge. What a weird front .

Couldn’t disagree more considering it’s an airmass that’s coming in before Christmas. Not in late January. It’s unimpressive in terms of the airmass sticking around, but the temp drop and winds are legit. DCA could set a Christmas low record. That’s noteworthy in its own right. The fact that it’s 22 here and 45 where my parents live in the lower Hudson valley in NY is pretty rad. .

My power just went out for about 10 minutes. The winds are whipping up this way!

Gotta love HCPSS closing tomorrow! .

Show us young Jedi .

I’d take 2” from a short duration pummeling and be happy. #ThingsSheDidntSay .

Wouldn’t be the mid Atlantic without having a flood watch hoisted as the rest of the country is under a winter weather alert of some kind. Hoping to squeeze out an inch or two up this way before we head into the freezer for 36 hours. Sucks that that is “best case” scenario, but it is December in the mid Atlantic. Snow is allergic to the Delmarva in December. .

Ahh, yes, the day after tomorrow analog. Never fails [emoji23] .

Probably the model I’m looking at least at this range when trying to analyze something as specific as timing of a cold front / changeover. Can’t discount it entirely of course, but this is where high res models *should* have a better grasp on details versus the euro. .

#FROPA’D [emoji23] .

Not really. We rarely see December snow anymore, especially significant snow. It’s not about the amount of daylight. It’s about the cold air masses and being in the heart of winter. Late January into February is our climo wheelhouse. Especially for a MECS/SECS/HECS

This is what “I don’t know what the fuck is going to happen” looks like in a visual representation. That low pressure spread is ridonculous!

Solid jump in the GEFS’s direction by the EPS .

We are a week away, which is in the GEFS’s wheelhouse. That’s all we really need to know for now. It’s consistency, to me, is encouraging. The surface depiction will change 100 more times between now and showtime on the operational. I know folks are salivating for snow, especially a significant event, but I really wish some peeps would chill out on the run to run bridge jumping from this far out. There were two “pattern wasted” and “winters over” posts already this morning and it’s only 8 AM [emoji23] Everyone needs to read Bob’s comment above. Most storms with complex evolutions end up sneaking up on us around the D3-D5 range on operational models. That’s the simple truth. And the reason truly is simple. They are not really capable of working out so much complex data from a week or more out. They are simply spitting out wide ranges of solutions - which is why there’s almost always everything from a massive blizzard to complete fails on any given run. There are just SO. MANY. MOVING. PIECES. in a complicated setup like this. Some folks thinking OP models can nail minute details from a week out which make all the difference between a 2-4” and 6-12” type storm are literally begging for a letdown. The only storms that really get sniffed out early, especially by all guidance, are simple / consolidated southern stream events - such as 01/2016. There’s not much to work out there. A favorable environment (usually around the Gulf) for low development and an entrenched dome of cold air? Check. Much more simple than worrying about splitting TPVs which have to round the base of a 50/50 block, stream phases, Miller b’s with coastal low redevelopment, etc. The sooner folks learn these truths, the less heartache they’ll feel. Tracking these storms 4 times a day for 7-10 days without understanding what bob mentioned above is quite literally BEGGING for a letdown.

Weren’t you just bridge jumping 3 comments ago? .

P21 please and thank you .

Solid improvements at 500MB on the 00z gfs versus the 18z and thus far the 0z NAM ICON CMC, while not where the GFS is whatsoever, all trended in its direction @ 500mb instead of the opposite way. Some more than others. If this was D3 or D4 I’d be pretty worried, but we still have a ton of time left for models to iron out what’s going to transpire with the TPV. The important part (as far as this storms evolution is concerned) is entering the GFS’s wheelhouse. And while we are WAY too far out to examine the end result on the NAM, we are entering the range in which it should begin to hone in on what’s going to happen out near Alaska as well. If it looks like the GFS @ 500mb at 00z tomorrow, that’s a great sign of things to come as we get closer. The fact that it looks much more like the GFS through 60 hours than the CMC can only be viewed as a positive. Have a feeling 0z tomorrow is when we start to see models eliminate the more extreme solutions and zero in on a tighter solution envelop. Perhaps it’s not a KU, but I’d sure as shit take a solid 3-6/4-8” area wide storm on Christmas eve - especially with arctic air and another threat - albeit smaller - right on its heels. .

I know the gfs is on an island right now, but it’s the new King, and to see the GFS OP and GEFS in line on a key feature 54ish hours out is enough for me to still feel there’s a decent chance it’s right. The euro’s wheelhouse is more in the mid range which is where it showed a similar evolution to what the GFS is currently showing in regards to how it handled the energy out west. If the euro is indeed doing its usual song and dance of hanging back too much energy out west in the 54-84 hour range, then it’s plausible that the result downstream at D7 (the final evolution of the storm) is incorrect. Of course, the GFS could end up being wrong and could eventually cave to the other “camp” in the coming 2-3 days, but if we’re strictly going off performance in the 48-84h range, I’d take the GFS over the Euro given it’s success over the past year since it was upgraded. The GFS’s consistency at 5h & 500mb from run to run has been pretty remarkable, and having support from its ensemble only bolsters it’s credibility IMO Anything’s possible, so we take this a day at a time. If the 00z gfs and tomorrows 12z gfs continue its current look, I have a feeling other models play catch-up in due time. .

Strictly speaking of those who expect a KU every storm. Not a ton of folks fall in this category, but there are enough. .