jayyy

Firm believer that the base state, and the resulting hostile PAC, is to blame for our woes. I don’t believe that we can’t do prolonged cold and snow in our parts anymore, but it is becoming quite clear that the PAC has a lot more influence than it used to. So long as it’s puking like a hungover college kid, we are sitting ducks tracking scraps via long range ensembles. We’ve primarily been dealing with niña conditions and an overwhelming PAC since 2016, outside of a few periods when it has “relaxed”. I do agree that if we can’t get more than a few days of relief from the PACs onslaught, it may be time to throw in the towel on tracking this season and pick back up next winter when it looks like we will finally be in a much more friendly longwave pattern. #modoki I’ll gladly enjoy a surprise snowfall or two if we can manage it in February, but it’s getting exhausting tracking these potential windows of PAC relief 14-21 days out, just to see them disappear as we get closer or only pan out for a few days at a time. .

The CFS has been pretty terrible though. If it were right in the 2-3 week range, we would have had an epic mid December into January. .

Lots of confluence between LR ensembles this go around. Obviously things can change, but we may finally get the pac relief we’ve so desperately needed .

The entire key to our snow issue. A prolonged base state (and therefor PAC ) issue. Simple as that really. Can’t get prolonged cold, entrenched 50/50s etc, when you’re dealing with an overpowering cross flow all the time. Once the pac gets beat down, it’s game time. .

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

YAWN

. .

Was that the OP? .

Never fails ^ - except the times when it does. .

This is the most insane clown map I’ve ever seen lmao. Clearly a stalled CCB band .

Sadly we’re like 3 days from Nam range [emoji23] .

Winchester to Union bridge death band babaaaay .

I like the boundary depicted here for our parts. Keep the coldest air to our NNW. We get shellacked with temps between 28-32F as multiple waves ride along the boundary ESE of our CWA. Hey, a dude can dream. .

Ended up being a disjointed mess. 2 pieces of energy instead of a decent shield of precip. Eek

Definitely a colder look there than we saw a day ago. Hmmm! Tomorrows runs will be interesting. .

I think we all got burnt pretty badly by that ordeal! You’re not alone there. That was honestly the final straw for me on looking too closely at any threat outside of D5ish. Ill look at ensembles through D10 or so to get a general idea on the overall setup being depicted at 500mb (even that changes a lot of the time) but trying to decipher details such as phase timing, surface low track, exact position of a high up north, energy transfers, ridge axis, etc? ON OPERATIONAL MODELS? Heck no. Why get so emotionally invested in something that will change literally 100x between then and game time. I’m getting too old for all of that anxiety. Have a decent feeling about someone seeing a solid couple inches out of this Sun night ordeal between my area and yours the way things are trending atm. Nothing crazy, but 1-2” sounds good to me.

Hook a brother up with a snapshot (if you’re able!) I’m currently driving home from WV .

That’s what I’m talking about! If I can squeeze an inch of snow out of this and see flakes fall for a few hours, I’d be happy. I swear, most of our snows seem to happen when we least expect it or when we’ve written a threat off and moved on to the “next potential”. Tracking storms D10 and beyond is for the birds. Idc how much models have improved over the years.. no one can convince me that models fully know how to decipher a given setup when most of the players in question are nowhere near being onshore. Models depend on data - and until they have that data, they are simply guessing how things will shake out to the best of their ability. Certainly that ability has improved over time, but it’s nowhere near perfect. We see booms on the regular in these parts - especially during overrunning events Models can’t even agree on this Sunday ordeal (48 hours out) yet folks are committing weenie suicide run to run over the 15th ordeal. Makes no logical sense to me. Let’s reel this sucker in! .

I’ll go with p26. P30 from earlier smoked the northern tier but left the cities with a smaller, yet still respectable snow. If this is going to pan out and be a biggie, I hope as many of us as possible get smoked. .

Sure, I’ve “seen worse” too, but we need the high way SW of where it is given the lack of cold air in Canada to have any shot with a marginal airmass. Just north of NY/CA border would be much better. .

That high pressure in Canada is in a shitty position for starters. .

LOL, just as I post this… we get another huge change in a subsequent run. Point = proven. Precisely why we shouldn’t care about minute details this far out. It’ll probably lose it at 18z and get it back at 0z

All we need is the ICONs temp profile (which is on its own island) with the GFS’s track (basically on its own island too). What could go wrong? [emoji23] - joking. In all seriousness, not a great set of runs so far today, but again, we’re mainly discussing OPs from 8 days out. They’ll change at 18z, 0z, and then again tomorrow, etc. No use in getting too worked up about it. Yesterday we saw the cash in side of the outcome envelop. Today we’re seeing the opposite. I also don’t love the idea of analyzing a secondary storm which partially depends on what an initial storm does from this range - especially when neither piece of energy is onshore yet. Models are missing far too much data to get an accurate picture of the players on the field for a storm over a week out. They aren’t even in agreement on the 8th-9th small ordeal yet [emoji2369] Peeping at the 6z GEFS, which I give far more weight to than the GFS or ICON at this range, there’s still a shot. Timing needs to be near perfect though, otherwise there’s virtually no cold air to work with…. which is a tall ask in these parts. A full phase could also do the trick. A few of the individual members get it done with proper timing, but most panels are a swing and a miss. Can’t say I like the way things look at this point, but I also can’t say with any semblance of confidence that this is the way things will look by the time the 8-9th rolls around. We could see a situation like last January where the storm sneaks up on us in the D5 range once models get a better grasp of what we’re dealing with up top.

Wonder if it’s attempting a Miller b’esque transfer to a coastal there .

I’d take this all day. 2-4” for many would be a welcome sight. Our VA brethren wouldn’t be thrilled though. .