jayyy

To the naked eye on my cell phone, the main driver of the differences between models / individual runs doesn’t seem to be track. All of the models show something pretty similar in that regard. The difference seems to be whether or not the low is more or less organized and whether the wave gets torn apart by the Apps. The solutions with a more organized wave have a more mature precip shield. Snow is definitely heavier and the extent of the precip shield is further north. CMC HRR ICON all look pretty decent for CMD and points S and E. The latest HRRR adjusted north with the precip shield, but the track itself remained pretty identical. 2-4 hours of heavy snow for the DC - BAL corridor per the HRRR would leave a lot of folks smiling - minor event or not. Would be really nice to see us come out on the winning side of a potential wave, even if it’s not a biggie. Loss after loss after loss when you’re tracking is just as depressing than the lack of snow itself. .

A wise woman once said to enjoy it while you can!

Sure was .

Rapidly approaching nowcast time in tracking the actual wave and not models, outside of the HRRR or 3K NAM. Last second adjustments to get us an inch. Gotta love it. [emoji23] Someone just outside DC (cooler) to Columbia over to CAPE may get 2” out of this if all goes right. .

Happening now! Light snow at 36 Edit - 35F

Triple phaser or bust? .

LOL, models this AM are terrible for 90+% of us. CAPEs area has the best shot at some snow as the wave hits the water and intensifies. Can’t even cash in on a few hours of snow. Yeesh. .

Bingo .

Helluva lot better than earlier today .

Show me young Jedi .

I’d argue that there are more hits on the GEFS than at 12z. The problem is that this can fail multiple ways. Temps, a poor track, or possible lack of moisture if energy gets eaten up by the Apps. Other models which show lackluster solutions have one or more of these scenarios playing out. Really hope we can thread the needle and at least get a wintry scene across the CWA .

I assume he means because of the spread among ensemble members. They mostly show either a hit with a couple inches or zilch.

Fixed. .

There’s actually a decent # of members with pretty solid depictions on the GEFS. Issue is there are far too many strikeouts to balance the shit scale back to neutral.

I think the creation of the “will it ever snow again” thread as a result of this epically shitty winter qualifies

With the occasional dick joke.

ensemble member 2 clearly will pan out. (The second member 2 at the bottom) NOT .

No .

RGEM 1-3/2-4 for many. VERBATIM, up to 5” in WV, with the second jackpot spanning from the DC ENE to CAPEtown and southern NJ. 2-3” in and around Baltimore. Some 4” totals just south of the city. Clearly the most juiced up model.

The RGEM is so consistent. Really hope it scores a coup Bar set at 0.1” by NWS so we can’t be disappointed [emoji1787]

RGEM has been insanely consistent, while other models keep waffling run to run, so I’m curious what its handling differently versus other models. Not saying it’s right.. especially being on an island with the ICON…but curious nonetheless. For you seasoned gurus in here, what leads to its better outcome for the area?

RGEM / ICON say yes, GFS NAM Euro say no… what could go wrong [emoji23]

First NAM run im paying attention to for wave 1 coming up here shortly. Would love to see it be near the RGEM .

18z GFS was close initially and things slid south from here. Plenty of time for precip to bump north, but with this comes warmer temps - which are already dangerously borderline. .

Creeping closer. P16 would make some folks happy for sure .