RodneyS

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 3.2 0.0 -1.0 -1.5 3.1 1.1 -2.1 0.0 2.7 99 98 96 95 99 101 98 116 92

Congratulations to Olaf for his razor-thin victory over Stormpc, and many thanks to PFDKWx and Roger for doing the heavy lifting. As of late February, this contest could have gone a dozen different ways, as many pre-season forecasts were for a snowy March. However, the Snow Gods had other ideas, as they usually do.

Yep, the Fat Lady has sung for all contestants except Stormpc, and even for him, she's warming up in the bullpen. However, since this is the Mid-Atlantic -- i.e. Nats' -- bullpen, it's not quite over, even with an 10-run lead in the 9th inning.

This appears to be the winner, with the following departures: IAD 0.9, DCA 0.1, BWI 0.8, and RIC 0.0; for a total departure of only 1.8".

I'm sure that Stormpc is hoping that another 0.1" can be found for RIC. In my case, I now need at least 1.8" at BWI, which has never happened there this late in the season. However, prior to BWI, there were a few Baltimore snowstorms during April 3-11 that exceeded that total. The big one was a mere 125 years ago -- April 10-11, 1894, when a two-day storm produced five inches.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.9 1.9 2.0 0.9 1.7 0.7 1.1 1.8 1.5 

And I can still win with the first 1.9" or better April snow event in Baltimore since 1924, provided that IAD gets no more than 1.9".

A faint ray of hope for Stormpc: The last weak El Nino winter before this one was 2006-07. That season an inch of snow fell at RIC on April 7, 2007. On that same day, DCA received 0.4", and IAD and BWI each received 0.2". So, that combination, or merely 0.1" at RIC with no measurable snow at DCA, would do it for him. For the rest of us, we need a miracle!

Also, if there are 0.4 inches or more at DCA, Stormpc could still take the lead with 1.7-1.8 inches at BWI. But if BWI reaches 1.9 inches, he's out, unless there is more snow at RIC. So for Stormpc's best chance of winning, he does not want any more snow at DCA and little at BWI, which raises an interesting point about yesterday's snow at DCA. It was officially a trace, but I'm thinking it could have easily been 0.1 inches, depending on the measurement technique. According to https://www.weather.gov/gsp/snow -- Snow often melts as it lands. If snow continually melts as it lands, and the accumulation never reaches 0.1 inches on your measuring surface, snowfall should be recorded as a trace (T) and record in your remarks that the "snow melted as it landed." So, evidently the snow never reached 0.1 inches at DCA because it "melted as it landed."

It appears the key thing for you is to have IAD come in under 2.5 inches for the rest of the snow season. If it receives that much or more, Bob Chill would catch you. In my case, I need IAD to come in under two inches, with BWI picking up at least 1.9 inches.

I'll settle for the 2.9" at BWI, provided that IAD and DCA get very little. (I'm assuming that Richmond is done.) For example, 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.3" at IAD and 0.1" at DCA allows me to take the lead. However, if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD, I'm out, and Bob Chill would take the lead, provided that DCA gets less than 0.3". But if it's 2.9" at BWI combined with 2.4" at IAD and 0.3" or more at DCA, you take the lead. Needless to say, there are countless other far-fetched possibilities that keep most other contestants alive, such as a late March Mid-Atlantic storm similar to the March 29, 1942 (Palm Sunday that year) storm; see https://www.baltimoresun.com/news/bs-xpm-1992-03-23-1992083144-story.html

If Sterling revises the totals enough, you can still win it. Otherwise, it looks as if you could finish 2nd, behind Weather53 by only 0.3, if you nail BWI.

FYI, yesterday's BWI snow total has been revised from 2.3 to 2.2 inches. For most of us, our overall departure is now 0.1 higher, and so there is no relative change, but MN Transplant now has BWI on the nose. See https://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=lwx

Today's storm was a thread-the-needle masterpiece for me. I still need at least 2.2 inches at BWI and no more than 2.9 inches at IAD, but that's more doable than what I needed prior to today, which was at least 4.4 inches at BWI and no more than 3.5 inches at IAD.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.8 -1.5 -1.1 -4.9 -0.7 -0.4 -4.6 -0.1 -0.8

I had not noticed that, but had noticed that overall that snowstorm tied for 23rd on the all-time DC list (with February 22-23, 1987). Also, the 10.6 inches received at Dulles in that storm was 16th all-time there, displacing the 10.3 inches that fell at Dulles during the infamous (poorly-forecast) 10.3-inch snowstorm of January 25, 2000.

IAD 1.0” DCA 0.5” BWI 1.5” RIC 0.0” MBY 0.9"

Since ENSO events began to be tracked during the winter of 1949-50, weak El Ninos have averaged 2.6 inches of snow at DCA during March and April, with the range being a trace on three occasions to 8.3 inches in 1978 (12 prior weak El Ninos).

I think the DCA and RIC parts are plausible. The BWI and IAD parts -- not so much, particularly regarding the greater amount of snow that has to fall at BWI in a moderate area-wide event (or events). However, at this point in the snow season, almost everyone who is not mathematically eliminated can cling to a thin strand of hope, so that's what I'll do.

I believe I could theoretically win with 4.4" at BWI, assuming DCA gets shut out and RIC gets no more than 0.2". However, if BWI gets 4.4" or more, isn't it very likely that IAD will get at least 3.6"? And if that happens, Bob Chill will close me out. So I have to thread the needle in a very unlikely manner. As our President might tweet: SAD!

I think the odds are better than 50-50 that either Stormpc, olafminesaw, or Bob Chill wins. I'm in the sad position of "so near, and yet so far."

BWI: 4.1” IAD: 3.4” DCA: 1.3” RIC: 0.3” Tie: 0.85”

In my case, you're correct -- my snow forecasts were based significantly on historical averages for weak El Nino winters.

Today's high temperature of 74 at DCA was 50 degrees warmer than the high of 24 recorded there just four days ago. As best as I can tell, that 4-day warm-up of 50 degrees in the DC maximum was second only to the 52-degree 4-day warm-up in maximum temperatures that occurred from February 16, 1930 (24) to February 20, 1930 (76).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.4 1.0 1.1 0.3 2.4 2.7 -0.3 0.3 -1.3