RodneyS

Congratulations to you and the rest of the Top Five, as there was a big gap between the Top Five and the rest of the field.

Barring a Palm Sunday 1942 type of event -- https://instaweatherinsights.wordpress.com/2007/03/28/palm-sunday-snowstorm-of-1942 -- it appears that only Dr. Dews was conservative enough (for Richmond) to nail the snow total at any of the four locations. Even our 99% certain winner, Prestige Worldwide, went too high at each location.

February 2020 averaged 43.8 degrees at DCA, with the meteorological winter there at 42.8 degrees, each 7th on the all-time DC list, although February 1984 also averaged 43.8.

DCA_NYC_BOS __ ORD_ATL_IAH ___ DEN_PHX_SEA 4.6 3.7 4.0 4.2 2.2 3.0 2.6 1.8 0.0

I have now done some additional analysis that shows that in several other eastern cities January temperatures during the most recent 30 years have peaked on or about January 13th and bottomed on or about January 21st: Raleigh-Durham: 46.9 vs 37.7 degrees Richmond: 43.6 vs 34.0 degrees Philadelphia: 38.4 vs 29.3 degrees New York: 37.3 vs 28.9 degrees Boston: 34.1 vs 26.2 degrees Portland: 26.4 vs 19.5 degrees

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 4.6 4.2 4.0 2.7 3.8 3.4 -2.5 -1.7 0.8

I don' t know about the deep low on March 1-2, 1914, but DC recorded only a trace of snow on each of those days. However, it recorded 0.3 inches on March 5th, 4.0 on March 6th, 0.7 on March 7th, 5.3 on March 11th, 5.2 on March 20th, and 3.8 on March 22nd. What is remarkable is how similar that winter was to 1959-60 in terms of no measurable snow falling until February 13th, and then way above average after that. This year, DCA has recorded on a percentage basis infinitely more snow so far than those two seasons: 0.6 inches divided by zero.

Here is an interesting historical fact about two prior DC winters. According to https://www.stormfax.com/elnino.htm, both 1913-14 and 1959-60 were ENSO neutral, just as this winter is. In the winter of 1913-14, no measurable snow fell in DC until February 13, 1914. Then a Valentine's Eve/Valentine's Day storm dropped 4.5 inches. That seemed to open the snow gates, as after that snow fell on an additional nine days through March 22, 1914, resulting in 28.6 inches of total snow for the season, of which a record 19.3 inches fell in March. In the winter of 1959-60, once again no measurable snow fell in DC until February 13th, and once again a Valentine's Eve/Valentine's Day storm dropped significant snow -- this time, 6.2 inches. And once again, that seemed to open the snow gates, as after that snow fell on an additional seven days through March 16, 1960, resulting in 24.3 inches of total snow for the season, of which 17.1 inches fell in March -- the second most ever -- second only to March 1914.

Time for another update. Once again this year at DCA, January 13th was much warmer than January 21st (48.5 degrees vs 31.5). So, for the most recent 30 years (1991-2020) at DCA, January 13th has averaged 41.6 degrees vs. 32.6 degrees on January 21st. A two-tailed T-Test shows that the odds of this being a random variation are less than 1 in 18,500. So, how will the NCDC handle this inconvenient fact when it calculates its new daily 30-year January temperature normals at DCA? The 1981-2010 January temperature normals there show temperatures bottoming out in mid-January, not January 21st. Further, even if the new DCA normals were to reflect a bottoming out on January 21st, the January 13th normal would likely be calculated using standard methodology as only 0.2-0.3 degrees higher than January 21st, and not the actual 9 degrees higher. Could someone at NCDC think way outside of the box and develop a radically new January temperature model, showing an annual thaw at DCA occurring around January 13th? And if s/he did, would s/he be given an award or fired? A thorny problem for NCDC, it seems to me.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 4.3 3.5 3.5 4.2 4.0 3.5 0.2 -1.7 0.3

Basically, but as Al Gore can tell you, there is a big difference between narrowly winning and narrowly losing.

Congratulations to wxdude64, who appears to have caught me at the wire when I bobbed my head. As always, the great majority of the credit belongs to Roger for organizing the contest and doing the bookkeeping. I'll give it another try in 2020, as long as Roger continues to do the heavy lifting.

It's remarkable how the early rainy DCA weekend pattern reversed during the last 31 weeks of 2019. During the first 21 weeks, 54% of weekend (Friday-Sunday) days had measurable precipitation vs. only 23% of weekdays. However, during the last 31 weeks, only 17% of weekend days had measurable precipitation vs. 41% of weekdays. Overall, 32% of weekend days had measurable precipitation vs. 34% of weekdays.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.7 -0.3 -0.3 2.6 0.7 2.4 0.3 0.4 0.6

Snowfall (11/23): DCA: 14.4" NYC: 25.1" BOS: 40.0" ORD: 35.0" DTW: 38.0" BUF: 100.0" DEN: 80.0" BTV: 88.0" SEA: 4.0"

BWI: 18.9" DCA: 14.4" IAD: 22.3" RIC: 10.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 6.4"

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.3 -1.5 -0.8 -2.2 -2.1 0.1 -3.0 0.8 0.2

October 2, 2019 is in the record books for the hottest October maximum in DC, Baltimore, and Dulles. The respective maximums today were 98, 98, and 96. The previous record for DC and Baltimore was set on October 5, 1941, with respective maximums of 96 and 97. The previous record for Dulles was set October 9, 2007, at 94.

Minor correction for DCA: According to the Capital Weather Gang, September 2019 was the 3rd warmest and 4th driest September in DC history; see https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/10/01/washington-just-posted-its-rd-warmest-th-driest-september-record

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.3 1.2 0.3 2.3 2.6 2.9 0.7 0.6 -0.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.6 0.2 2.7 2.6 1.2 2.1

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 0.6 1.1 1.5 0.6 -0.3 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.8

You're looking good right now, while I'm headed from first to worst. By the way, I think Richmond hit 99 a couple of weeks ago, but that may look cool by the time the weekend ends.

Another DC precipitation record has just fallen. The previous DC record precipitation from the second half of one year to the first half of the following year was 62.16 inches, set during July 1885 to June 1886. With 0.62 inches already recorded at DCA tonight, the July 2018-June 2019 total there is 62.53 inches and counting.

BWI: 97 DCA: 98 IAD: 97 RIC: 98 HGR: 97