RodneyS

Very true, and according to my calculation, 12 have been eliminated. That includes WxWatcher007, who is currently tied for second, but is closed out by olafminesaw.

Congratulations, Don, nicely done once again.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.0 1.5 1.4 -0.5 1.5 2.0 -0.1 0.1 -2.1

Another interesting fact about December 2021 is that there were only 0.63 inches of precipitation at DCA -- the 6th driest December in DC history, with 1889 the driest at 0.19 inches. (1901 was the wettest December in DC at 7.56 inches). Moreover, November and December 2021 combined totaled only 1.61 inches at DCA -- the 2nd driest November-December in DC history, with 1965 the driest November-December at 0.84 inches. (2018 was the wettest November-December in DC at 13.39 inches, and was also the wettest year overall, at 66.28 inches). However, unlike 1965, which was the second driest year overall in DC at 26.94 inches (1930 was the driest, at 21.66), 2021 was relatively wet overall, at 44.09 inches (tied with 1912 for 47th wettest out of 151 years).

December 2021 at DCA could not match December 2015's average of 51.2 degrees, but it was the second warmest December in DC history at 47.6 degrees -- 3.6 degrees cooler, but 2.0 degree warmer than the December record holders prior to 2015, which were December 1889 and 1984 (45.6). That also makes December 2021 the fourth warmest meteorological winter month in DC history, behind only December 2015, January 1950 (48.0), and February 2017 (47.7).

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.1 1.6 1.3 3.2 3.7 4.7 5.6 4.1 0.4 DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ DTW _ BUF ___ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 12.8 25.0 45 54 42 91 48 12 75

BWI: 12.2" DCA: 12.8" IAD: 17.8" RIC: 6.0" Tiebreaker SBY: 5.2"

Whoops, I forgot to sign in.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.2 3.1 2.8 3.1 1.6 1.1 1.4 -0.4 -0.4

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH __ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -1.0 -0.1 1.3 0.6 0.1 0.6 1.3 -0.9 0.6

And the NHC seemed to tilt heavily toward those models, even though they seemed implausible to most experienced forecasters. I think what NHC did was unwise, as mistakes of this type can cause the general public to be skeptical of future projections that may legitimately forecast a scary scenario requiring an evacuation.

You may want to volunteer to assist the National Hurricane Center. At 5 PM on Saturday (4 hours after you posted), the NHC "Wind Probs" were vastly inflated for just about every location. For example, they showed a 99% probability that Providence, RI would experience sustained tropical force winds over the weekend. The reality: The highest sustained wind at TF Green Providence International Airport was only 35 mph.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.4 -0.1 0.9 1.7 -0.5 -0.7 0.4 -0.8 1.2

-0.3 _ 0.5 _ 0.5 _ 0.9 _ -0.9 _ 0.1 _ 1.1 _ 0.5 _ 2.0

DCA __ NYC __ BOS ___ ORD __ ATL __ IAH ____ DEN __ PHX __ SEA 1.0 1.4 1.8 0.5 0.0 -0.9 0.3 0.9 1.5

Today has an interesting distinction, with a high of 59 at DCA, which was recorded at 12:33 AM. Officially, that is the second lowest DC maximum ever for May 29th, with May 29, 1893 being the record-holder at 58 degrees. However, that record is likely the result of the temperature not being observed when the day dawned, because the official DC temperature range for May 28, 1893 is 60-69 degrees. If that is correct, which I think is likely, May 29th, 1893 had to begin with a temperature of at least 60 degrees. So today's high of 59 is likely the new unofficial record-holder for lowest DC maximum on May 29th.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 1.4 0.6 0.4 -0.1 0.8 0.7 -0.2 0.2 0.1

The photo is gloomy, but last year's maximums were colder in Northern Virginia at this time of year. The average maximum at DCA during April 14-23, 2020 was 60.2, vs 64.7 this year. Moreover, there is a major warm-up coming this year. Last year, maximums at DCA during April 14-May 13 averaged only 63.6 -- the coldest DC average for those 30 days since 1882. Last year's DCA maximum on May 9th was 52 -- a record-tying low for that day.

Congratulations, NorthArlington10 1! By the way, I note that rhino16 nailed the DCA total. According to the Capital Weather Gang: "Out of more than 750 participants who entered our snowfall prediction contest, six were on the money, calling for 5.4 inches. Congratulations to: Keith Ernst Anne Kubelik Doug MacIntyre Heather Pierce David Sanders Margie Yeager" See https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/04/05/dc-snow-contest-winners-2021

So, with this year's 5.4 inches at DCA, we broke the 5-year minimum DC snow total by 3.6 inches, as the last five snow seasons at DCA have totaled just 34.1 inches, vs 37.7 during 1997-2002. However, we exceeded the 2-year minimum DC snow total by 0.9 inches, as the last two snow seasons at DCA have totaled 6.0 inches, vs 5.1 during 2011-2013.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.5 -0.2 0.0 1.6 0.3 0.6 3.7 1.1 -1.6

My designated snow counters -- Vladimir Putin and Nicolas Maduro -- have informed me that a totally objective hand count reveals that the true amount that fell at DCA was 4.4 inches. By an amazing coincidence, that's exactly what I forecast! I have instructed Vlad and Nick to now do a similar hand count at the other three airports . . . I do note, however, that should my effort to steal win the contest fall short, NorthArlington101 has to watch his back at IAD. Should an additional 1.5 inches fall there, Cobalt would eliminate him.

I think it's now fair to say that both DCA and IAD have broken their high winter minimum temperature records set just last winter. DCA's record high winter minimum temperature is now 23 degrees, and IAD's is now 16. However, I discovered that way back in the winter of 1952-53, and more recently in the winter of 2001-02, the DCA minimum was 19. So, that 19-degree record DCA (and DC, back to 1872) high winter minimum stood until last winter, when it was broken by three degrees. This winter, that record high minimum was broken by another degree, as was also true at IAD.

I have based my 2021 forecasts on the 1981-2010 normals because otherwise I would just be engaging in informed speculation about the forthcoming 1991-2020 normals. It doesn't matter to me what the base is, as long as I know what it is. For example, you could set the base as historical average temperatures back to the 19th Century, in which case I would rarely submit a negative value. So, if I were running the contest, I would continue to use the 1981-2010 normals as the base until the 1991-2020 normals are officially established.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ____ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.1 -0.2 -0.1 0.8 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.6 -0.5