RodneyS

BWI: 25.5 DCA: 18.4 IAD: 28.1 RIC: 13.5

For the 2023-24 snow season contest, we have 75 entrants, up from 64 in 2022-23. Assuming that none of last season's entrants changed their user names, 49 entrants this season are returnees and 26 are new. The average amount forecast for the four airports combined this season is 85.6 inches, up from 63.3 last year. The median is also 85.6 inches, up from 58.9 last year. Below is the summary table, listed in ascending order of the snow forecast at the four airports combined:

This snow season my strategy consisted of: 1) 1% inspiration 2) 1% perspiration 3) 98% dart throwing.

Lock Day 2023 has arrived, and so 11:59 PM EST is the last chance to submit or modify your entry. Here is mine: BWI: 6.6" DCA: 6.7" IAD: 6.7" RIC: 5.0" Tiebreaker: SBY: 2.2"

Thank you @AtlanticWxfor adding Richmond.

DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _ATL _IAH ____ DEN _PHX _SEA 1.0 1.2 1.3 2.7 0.8 1.8 1.7 0.1 0.0 DCA _NYC _BOS __ ORD _DTW _BUF ____ DEN _ SEA _ BTV 6.7 12.9 24.3 30.0 34.5 79.9 65.4 3.9 64.3

November 2023 at DCA came in slightly below the 1991-2020 normal, at 49.6 degrees, which was higher than November 2012 (46.6), but lower than November 2017 (49.8). So, the first 11 months of 2023 gained a little on 2012, but edged further behind 2017, with an average temperature of 62.7 degrees versus 63.1 for the first 11 months of 2012 and 62.8 for the first 11 months of 2017. However, because December 2012 was quite warm at DCA (45.3) and December 2017 was relatively cold there (39.2), 2023 will very likely finish behind 2012, while probably finishing ahead of 2017. Specifically, if December 2023 averages between 40.4-49.1 degrees at DCA (1991-2020 normal is 41.7), 2023 will finish as the second warmest calendar year in DC history. For 2023 to beat 2012 as the warmest calendar year in DC history, December 2023 at DCA would have to be the second warmest meteorological winter month in DC history, behind only December 2015 (51.2)

Paging @AtlanticWx, I need your snow forecast for RIC in the below thread. You did not supply that number, and you cannot receive private messages.

Reminder: This is the final week to enter the contest. Entries will lock Friday at 11:59 PM EST.

Thanks, but I need a number for RIchmond.

It would appear that integrating AI with traditional models could improve the latter. For example, if AI is forecasting snowstorms for a given area more accurately than traditional models, that may indicate that traditional models are paying insufficient attention to historical data that could inform the models.

Thanks.

Okay, but I need a tiebreaker for only one of the two airports, in the event that you and another contestant tie for 1st place when the contest ends. So, why don't you choose from one of these two midpoints: Lynchburg 13.5 inches or Salisbury 10.5 inches?

Do you have a tiebreaker for Salisbury or Lynchburg?

Do you have a tiebreaker (either Salisbury or Lynchburg)?

That would put @EastCoast NPZin a tight spot.

That pick last year would have won easily.

A repeat of Feb 5-6, 2010?

It's time for the 9th annual Mid-Atlantic snowfall contest! Those who participated last year will doubtless recall the excitement of that contest in which measurable snow managed to fall at BWI International (BWI), Reagan National (DCA), and Dulles International (IAD) on exactly one day -- February 1st. And even that did not happen at Richmond International Airport (RIC), where the snow gods pitched a shutout. However, we all know things will be different this time around because it is not a La Nina, but rather an El Nino, snow season. And an El Nino has never produced at DCA less snow than . . . one-tenth of an inch. (1972-73 and 1997-98). Then again, the El Nino winter of 2009-10 set the all-time DC snow record of 56.1 inches. So, that narrow range should assist with your pick. Everyone is encouraged to play, including lurkers, new members, and people outside the region. Please note that you are forecasting the total snowfall for the entire snow season (NOT just Dec/Jan/Feb) to the nearest one-tenth of an inch for the four major Mid-Atlantic airports: BWI, DCA, IAD, and RIC. Generally, snow does not fall after early April at any of these airports, and so the contest is usually finalized by early to mid-April. For the tiebreaker, please choose one of the following two airports: Salisbury, MD (SBY) or Lynchburg, VA (LYH). Choose only one -- in the event of the tiebreaker, the difference at the airport you chose will be compared with the difference at the airport your opponent(s) chose. The winner will be the person who has the lowest combined absolute value departure for all four airports. For example, if you forecast: BWI: 0.0" DCA: 0.0" IAD: 0.0" RIC: 10.0" And the actual seasonal totals turn out to be: BWI: 2.5" DCA: 2.5" IAD: 2.5" RIC: 2.5" Your absolute value departures would be: BWI: 2.5 DCA: 2.5 IAD: 2.5 RIC: 7.5 Thus, your total departure would be 15.0. Please use the following format when posting your forecast, in this order: BWI: DCA: IAD: RIC: Tiebreaker (SBY or LYH): The deadline for entries is Friday, December 1, at 11:59pm. You are welcome to update your forecast at any time up to the deadline. However, please do not edit your original post -- either submit a new post or send me a private message. If there's any accumulating snow before the deadline, please include that in your forecast as well. I think the best approach is to submit your forecast in advance of the deadline and update if necessary, just in case you get tied up on December 1st, when the contest will lock -- no late entries will be accepted. The winner gets an E-trophy made of snow and an induction into the Hall of Fame with the previous winners: 2015-16: @Shadowzone 2016-17: @Stormpc 2017-18: @olafminesaw 2018-19: @olafminesaw (tiebreaker win against @Stormpc 2019-20: @Prestige Worldwide 2020-21: @NorthArlington101 2021-22: @IUsedToHateCold 2022-23: @LittleVillageWx Good luck everyone!

October 2023 at DCA came in above the 1991-2020 normal, at 63.1 degrees, which was higher than October 2012 (61.0), but lower than October 2017 (64.9). So, the first 10 months of 2023 gained on 2012, but fell behind 2017, with an average temperature of 64.0 degrees versus 64.7 for the first 10 months of 2012 and 64.1 for the first 10 months of 2017. 2023 could still be the warmest year ever in DC, if it were to average about 50 degrees during November and December. Under that circumstance, the final two months of 2023 would be the third warmest ever, behind only 2015 (52.5) and 2001 (50.2).

DCA_NYC_BOS__ ORD_ATL_IAH__ DEN_ PHX_ SEA -1.1 0.1 0.1 -0.3 -1.4 0.7 -0.7 0.1 0.9

September 2023 at DCA came in above the 1991-2020 normal, at 73.4 degrees, which was higher than both September 2012 (72.2) and September 2017 (72.6). So, the first nine months of 2023 gained on both 2012 and 2017, with an average temperature of 64.1 degrees versus 65.1 for the first nine months of 2012 and 64.0 for the first nine months of 2017. Thus, while 2023 is averaging about a degree cooler per day than 2012 did during its first nine months, 2023 is averaging a tad warmer than 2017 did during its first nine months.

DCA _ NYC _ BOS __ ORD _ ATL _ IAH ___ DEN _ PHX _ SEA -0.3 0.5 1.0 1.7 -0.8 2.5 1.0 -0.6 0.6

Awesome job for many years, Roger -- many thanks.

A remarkable 4-day run at Dulles. In the 60 Septembers prior to 2023 at IAD, only three 99-degree readings had been recorded, with no September day exceeding 99. Beginning Sunday (9-3-2023), we have reached 99, 99, 99, and 100 on consecutive days.