SnowGoose69

2 minutes ago, Cheeznado said:

Based on everything I see, from over half of the GEFS members with at least 1" here, some with 5" +, the Euro ensemble mean being over 1", the new very impressive NAM- I think we see snow almost for sure now, some accumulations possible on grass, cars etc area. Fingers crossed for the NAM to be right, but need to see more evidence, but the trends are favorable right now for it at least not being a total bust.

These types of systems are probably the most favorable for that region because they do not tend to move NW as much with time because they don’t have the deep surface low.  I’ve seen plenty end of destroying MCN though and missing ATL 

The RGEM is in though 42 and is insanely far NW at 42 compared to the 06Z run at 48 

9 minutes ago, tmagan said:

Remember how much Gloria weakened moving up the east coast in 1985, coincidentally around this time period? At one time east of the Bahamas, recon measured one of the lower pressures ever found in an Atlantic tropical cyclone. Of course that has been surpassed many times in the last 32 years.

Gloria was still likely stronger than people think though.  The insane 125-130 mph forecast they had out was wrong but I still think it was probably 95-105 when it hit.  Those winds were purely east of the center and east of it by 20-30 miles since Islip gusted to only 85.  BDR gusted to 97.  I was in Rocky Point at the time and easily thought we had winds over 100 

Even if it hits the US I'm not sure what sort of shape it's in at that point.  It's not really taking a trajectory over a favorable area.  I'm thinking a 75-90 mph cane at the worst 

Inevitably the solution all models show now with the scare and then kick out will likely be wrong.  Mostly because it's remote the models could have this handed so correctly this far out.  I'd almost rather see them unanimously showing a direct hit right now 

3 minutes ago, thess said:

(Dumb tech nerd question: wouldn't it be desirable to make these instruments extremely rugged, like aircraft black boxes?)

I think they just don't see the value in it.  Much like the 25000ft sensors for the ASOS never really came to pass.  They didn't see any reason since these are mostly for aviation purposes and you won't have any operation in these conditions ever 

Just now, OceanStWx said:

It's not really the speed that's the problem, it's power to the system.

I assume many of them go out due to power but I see many cases where the rest of it keeps working the entire event but the anemometer fails 

92mph just broke the ASOS.  They should use better equipment on these 

1 minute ago, catdaddyfalcon15 said:

thanks. if and how much do you think maria will weaken before landfall in PR. i know its going to be bad regardless, just wondering.

15-20 mph if it completes or nears completion.  The eye having become bigger today probsbly prevents a 30 mph plus drop from occurring. 

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Direct hit on PR.

I could see it clipping the northeast corner if it were to wobble NNW a bit longer which it seems to be doing now.  But it's probably going to resume more WNW motion at some point tonight 

5 minutes ago, CoreyandFrosty said:

Is there any chance Maria could eventually head into the Gulf of Mexico? Or is that very unlikely?

Probably little to no chance right now.  The coast from NC northward there is still a risk 

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

The so called second eyewall forming seems a bit displaced distance wise from the actual eyewall. Maybe that changes but for now, seems a little early to proclaim it's trying for an ERC. At least to me anyways.

Yeah I was thinking the same thing.  Seems way too far out for it to be an ERC 

2 minutes ago, Paragon said:

Jose is so weak and over such cold waters, I wonder what's keeping him on life support for so long.

Hurricanes typically don't weaken as much as people think north of the VA/NC 80 degree SST cutoff after late August.  They will usually plummet to around 85-90 mph and then can be stubborn beyond that because they are often being aided by some sort of upper level feature and or semi ET transition.   In June/July/most of August more weakening seems to occur.  This is likely due to SSTs being cooler as there is frequently a lag and less likely to see ET transitions or dynamic upper level features helping systems in summer 

6 minutes ago, David Reimer said:

Wouldn't it be something if it just started right back up right where it left off? Latest vortex reported a 12 NM closed circular eye. Almost makes me wonder if the island's interaction may have 'helped' Maria to avoid an ERC by causing a temporary disruption and helping the eye get a tad bigger. Just speculation and absolutely no meteorological basis to that speculation, but what a fascinating storm to watch. 

I'm pretty sure you can have an ERC delayed by 24-36 hours easily by a landfall.  Even a brief one such as a small island 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks like TDPD and TDCF stopped reporting.

Some hours those obs have come in a good 30 minutes after the hour 

2 minutes ago, Justanobody said:

So FFC going with EURO/CMC blend, and throwing the GFS to the wolves. What ever show less is what they do.

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Climatologically wise that is not the worst idea.  I always tell people, do not forecast near record or record amounts unless model agreement is high.

Xiamen gusting to 80mph and their wind is offshore which means the center passed northeast of them.  You'd have to think places just east of center gusting to 100-110.  Satellite appearance I think this is a 95-100mph storm, not 125 as JTWC has

Rgem is faster and looks like a big soaker

The RGEM had been dreadfully slow since its upgrade last year with most events. Using the NAM though which also tends slow I would say anyone from about central northern NJ east sees nothing before 10pm other than spotty light rain here or there.

We will see, the band isn't making tremendous landward progress off ACY...it still is further north, and the RGEM very clearly leaves it a little west of where it is now for several hours overnight. I mean it's clearly there on the model, but it also lifts the stuff aligned WNW to ESE towards SNE.   Hey maybe in 90 minutes I'll be totally wrong....

 

 

I said it would be one of the poorer euro performances.  I'll stand by that in general, I think it'll continue shuffling, but i'm hoping this RGEM quick exit is very much an error.  That'd su(k tomorrow.

Its gonna be tight for NYC, my hunch now is it will make it and stall just west of them the stuff off NJ is slowing its west progress which likely means we'll see the west progress slow up north within 1-2 hours.

I think the euro is going to cave harder than we think tonight.

Down in NYC the Euro may still end up more correct than the GFS or RGEM, the RGEM is verifying too far east right now down there, we have mod-heavy snow in portions of west-central LI it is not seeing or has 50 miles further east.  The 12Z Euro will probably end up being off 30 miles on its west edge but because its impacting 20 million people, everybody is going to notice it, if it was over AVP or ABE hardly anybody would.

It was wildly inconsistent from last run and has many in the NYC area jumping off bridges. Jeez...

 

It's times like this I'm almost glad I'm so far away from it all now (reverse psychology )

I was joking when I said Newark may see 8 inches and JFK 20 but it may be close to that.

I feel bad for the beating OKX is going to take if they only get 5-10"/6-12" of snow after a forecast of 24-36" within 24 hours of start time.

They'll verifiy 2 feet on central and ERN LI, its NYC they may get killed, but even there I think ends up around 12-14, the RGEM has about that for NYC.

GFS is my least favorite model in coastal systems....but the RGEM being east would be giving me a lot of pause if I forecasting in the ALB CWA.

The RAP's forecast at the end of it's run would suggest the GFS and RGEM are closer to reality than the NAM or Euro, the RAP has a known west bias beyond 12 hours and it's barely getting heavy snow to NYC, the Euro may be going down on this event

Someone in NYC thread was saying the servers came under attack by millions of requests. Anyone know if there's anything to that?

It sure appeared to be another DDoS attack to me

Yea their western zones into nyc will be cutting it close. Very tough call.

Eastern LI is safe but I could easily see NYC seeing 12 or 28