weatherpruf

I don't think so Ant. The super warm temps have got everyone pessimistic. Get us some cold and a few inches, even after a front end dump that turns to rain, and people will fell better about things.

Snowfall has been unimpressive since 2016 IMBY. Many of the other storms since were misses out here, some by quite a lot.

I do....saw a lot of them. Never with this much warmth and so sustained though. 80's were paltry, but not this warm.70's weren't great either. And neither were most of the 90's. We've had a good run from 2001-2016, with a few lean years in there. Been meh ever since for a lot of us.

Still rain for 2/3rd of us if I am reading correctly

think you mean 2014/15, the winter of the nickel and dime events which totaled 50 some inches.....15/16 was one big storm in Jan. and one small one in Feb.

None of us really knows, not even the most diligent scholars of this stuff, but I would never bet against any snow in the metro area this early. By the end of Feb I might make the bet, but the last two years I would have lost...

Did some garden work today. Still have fresh herbs going strong, thyme, rosemary, and some other stuff my wife planted, maybe sage. Have creeping charlie invading the pots. Still not the tomato seedlings I had growing in Dec 2015, but close enough. Blueberries started budding. All very disorienting. Looks like winter will return shortly according to people here. we'll see.

I'm in NJ and it has gotten cloudy and quite windy, not really a nice day just warm....people outside doing stuff but it's just to get a break. It was sunny briefly but that's gone.

Yeah, last May was definitely colder than this....

I'm not expecting much. Strictly anecdotal, but good winters ( well, most would consider this a "good" winter so far, due to mild temps ) in my experience usually show an early signal with a cold, icy or snowy Dec. Likewise, dud winters usually follow snowless or mild Dec. But we can still sneak in a good storm, like Jan 2016. That said, I have been following PB's analysis and I give him great weight, so hope he is right.

Probably a straight south wind there? A southwest wind will always blow up during these kinds of warmups. At least in my experience.

It's shocking and I see there are violent storms that could be triggered south of us. People talk about the dangers of snowstorms, but these winter warmups tend to have their own problems. We'll see.

These systems rarely deliver much snow to us, a few inches that gets washed away in a hurry.

So we'd be looking at fast moving systems, no huge events, if they happen, no? That's fine, my favorite recent winter was 2014, not a blockbuster among them, just solid 6-10 in. storms.

No, but we have not been the locus of any but Boxing Day and Jan 2016; and western parts of the county may not have done was well Boxing Day, not sure. Although they still had a lot. I always remind myself that most people think of a "bad" winter as one that features any amount of snow and ice, people around these parts complain about the winters incessantly.

Depends on your location. Few of the storms outside of Jan 2016 were much to talk about in my region, relative to others. Only the last March 2018 storm delivered ( about 9 inches give or take ) and we did have the Easter Monday snow of 3-5 as a consolation prize, but other than that it has been near misses, subsidence, mixing issues, dry air, you name it.

I'm coastal plain, but near Raritan Bay. Don't get the same as the coast or interior. So a little too far west for that one.

Widespread, but paltry for a lot of us in this subforum....

Yes, but it was devoid of a snow storm. Couple sleet events.

This is why I don't come to banter during the work day....

I suspect it is rooted in the magic of childhood snow days; a day off from school, unexpectedly, and a day with friends sledding and having snowball fights. In the past kids in the neighborhood all did this together, differences were put aside, and there were no cellphones and only a handful of tv stations. There was the thrill of hiding behind a snow bank and tossing snowballs at passing cars, before there were cameras everywhere to record the deed. You never knew what would happen til the next morning. You didn't get calls the night before or an email or a posting on a school website canceling the next day because the Euro said you were going to get 2 feet, when you wound up with 3 inches....no, you had to wait til the next morning, and it if it wasn't cranking, you were going to school. Bummer. It was before life became complicated, with mid-terms, exams, dating, teen angst, the drudgery of becoming a wage slave, and having to drive to work in the snow to satisfy the boss man ( or lady ) who expected fealty for giving you the privilege of a job....think "Rosebud." Anyone who has watched through curtains at night, longing for the snow to fall, could understand the meaning of that last gasp...."Rosebud"......indeed.

Ok, this is rather unusual....

We have a few of them around here.....

Light rain here.

It was sickening and abnormal. And yes, we are going to see it again, because the planet is burning up. I had tomato seedlings popping up that December. A tropical plant. Quite disturbing.