PrinceFrederickWx

The 2001-2030 snowfall normals for BWI and DCA will be single-digits LOL

I don't see how BWI could have a Trace, I have family that lives in Glen Burnie a few minutes away and they said it was definitely not just a dusting. Not to mention all the spotter reports surrounding it around 0.4-0.7" or so.

0.5” here. I have already exceeded last year’s total by… 0.5” lol

The feast-or-famine pattern that started in the 1970's was always predicted to turn into just famine only eventually. That may have started in 2017.

You people are talking about snow while my kids and I are heading to one of the beaches here tomorrow.

That's correct, I had 9.3" IMBY, just north of me in Huntingtown was the bull's eye at 15". Much of Southern MD did better with that storm than HECS 2016.

Looking at IMBY records the last ten years, this is true. I have had three WSW events in March (2014, 2015, 2018). In December I have had ZERO. It does seem like winter IMBY is increasingly being boxed into January. I've had six WSW events in January in the last ten years, while February has had only two, and it's been a long time too (President's Days 2015 & 2016).

I couldn't help myself so I looked this up now for BWI and DCA. There is one winter I can find which should give weenies hope: 1913-14. BWI was shut out until Feb. 6, when 0.2" of snow fell. That was the start of a pattern change featuring below average temps and numerous nickel-and-dime events, until the season finished at 23," which was 3.7" above the 1991-2020 average. DCA was shut out until Feb. 13-14, when 6" of snow fell. The final total at DCA was 28.6" which was 14.9" above the 1991-2020 average. Second place goes to 1965-66, where BWI was shut out until Jan. 22-23, when 2.1" fell. DCA was shut out until Jan. 26, when 6.9" of snow fell. The airports ended with seasonal totals of 32.8" and 28.4", respectively. As 1965-66 has been touted as one of the top analogs to this winter, it's probably best to wait until around then before being reaped.

I’m actually really curious now as to what the last date is that the airports have been shut out, yet still ended up above-average snow for the season. My cursory research over the weekend seemed to put the date around Jan. 23, but I’m going to look into it more if we’re still shut out next month.

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I’m going to assign you to handling option 2 (Trouble with your El Nino performance) from here on out. We’re expecting a large influx of callers in the coming weeks and unfortunately do not have the budget to hire more staff, as half our annual expenses are now going to pay @WxWatcher007 cushy retirement pension.

In recent years I’ve become a big fan of taking a Jebwalk on dark foggy 50ish degree evenings like this, especially through the field next to my neighborhood. Seems like we get a lot of these in December and I love them.

Idk about that, winter can start pretty late here yet still wind up average or even above-average. 1987, 1966 and 2016 didn't get started until around Jan. 19-23 and all three ended above-average. My original point was separating the God-tier winters from the "good, but not great" ones. It has to snow early and snow often to get to that level, and if we're still shutout by the second half of December, you can pretty much kiss all those goodbye.

@Eskimo Joe Here's the bottom ten.

I'm about to head out but I can when I get time.

Here's a little chart I made of the top ten winters at BWI from 1893 onward, along with the corresponding first snow. (Note: LWX has said snowfall data before 1893 for BWI is of questionable quality, so I excluded those). For all of the winters, there was at least one accumulating event by Dec 13. My only point is that if we're going to be having an epic winter, it probably needs to start snowing really soon to keep up. If it doesn't, then our upper limit is the next tier down like 1987, 2016, 1966, etc.

We could obviously still get above average, but the epic winter calls like 02/03 and 09/10 are already in serious trouble IMHO. We would need to start getting on the board soon or we’re already falling behind.

^our dark lord has returned. Cue the entrance music:

I think I know what you’re doing here? That’s an interesting strategy, it might work. (or maybe I’m overthinking it and you just think a big southern slider is happening lol)

@RodneyS I'm upping this just a bit. BWI: 4.3" DCA: 2.1" IAD: 5.8" RIC: 1.5" Tiebreaker SBY: 2.2"

Please sir, just drop a couple dimes into the slot, and I will happily complete your call as requested: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ebcrRFzJmWQ

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