PrinceFrederickWx

QFT, with one minor adjustment lol I don't think there's a way to add in a poll option though.

12z GFS is looking better for us IMHO

Yup. Keep that line going straight and it takes you right through Prince Frederick and just south of Charlotte Hall.

In all the models snowfall maps (from what I've seen), you have the snow amounts start to drop off in central/southern Calvert and St. Mary's. It mostly looks like they have us around the 10" mark or so? My concern is still we wind up with something like Feb. 2014 where after the front end snow, we struggle with mixing while BWI/DCA and all points north/west get clobbered. That storm underperformed in my area. DC/Baltimore can sit comfortably but I feel like my area is flirting too much with that rain/snow line. I've set the bar IMBY at just getting at least 5-6 inches, then I'll be happy. Salisbury may wind up with more snow last Saturday than this weekend.

In all seriousness, I wish there was more talk about NHK and SBY in addition to DCA/IAD/BWI/RIC/CHO

None. I expect it to rain all the way through. j/k

I think we might be doing a lot of complaining in here next weekend...

Sticking to everything now except roads. Down to 36. Heaviest of the day so far.

Moderate snow here, best its been all day. Temp down to 38. Still not sticking yet.

Nice! It looks like the southern tip of St. Mary's is getting it good. Radar looks like it might fill in enough to get up here? I had some light/moderate snow this morning but it stopped. No accumulations though. We're back! Need some GIF's up in here lol

I haven't looked at it much cause its still too far out for me to be fully invested in yet, but if we get a repeat of the 2/21/15 disaster I'm gonna lose it! How's the snow event today going for you? Sounds like Salisbury is doing well at least. Edit: Took a peek at 6z GFS. Ouch.

Will be adding this to my bookmarks, thanks! I use this page a lot- you guys probably already have this, but if you don't, its got a lot of good data: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/lcd/lcd.html

I figured not getting a subfreezing high in DJF (yes, I mean 31 and under) would be more common at DCA than BWI. Other than 31/32, the only other one I found was 97/98 (which was tied for 8th hottest winter overall). But there may be others, I can't check them all. Some of BWI's hottest winters and the first subfreezing high they had (also included the super nino of 72/73 out of curiosity, even though its way down on the list at 25th hottest): 32/33 - 12/16 (23 degrees) 48/49 - 12/26 (25 degrees) 49/50 - 2/26 (31 degrees) 72/73 - 12/17 (30 degrees) 01/02 - 12/30 (30 degrees) 11/12 - 1/4 (31 degrees)

This is something else I've been thinking about but don't have enough info- how often do we go through an entire winter without at least one subfreezing high? Looking at some of BWI's hottest winters I can't find any that didn't have at least one for DJF except 31/32 (and even that winter had several in March). So I can't find any for DJFM at all. Although not having any subfreezing highs may not correlate to an overall torch winter, so I could be looking in the wrong places. I'd assume DCA has had several without. Still early though- and BWI might get one next week?

BWI already had a T in December, but if you're looking to track snow futility, the only January that ever had a 0 (not even a T) was 1937. Its still early, but we're at zero so far and no snow in sight. Should probably mention that 1937 really delivered in February and March and was an above average winter though.

BWI would only need a +1.5 departure in both January and February to tie for top ten hottest winter.

Some more stats for BWI- this was the 2nd hottest November-December period. The top ten are listed below (in degrees). We came close to beating 1931, and there's a huge gap between 2nd and 3rd. You'll see some familiar recent years in this list too: 1931: 50.2 2015: 50.0 1946: 47.4 1994 & 1941: 47.3 1948: 46.9 1881: 46.6 1889 & 2011: 46.5 2001: 46.4 This was also the 10th wettest December at BWI, with 5.85"

December finished at 49.0 degrees (+12.3) at BWI. I don't have a lot of time today but just at a quick glance, this was the hottest DJF month ever and would also be 12th hottest March. Would also be an above average November.

I can't believe DCA's only had a zero in Dec. only once. Its happened five times at BWI.

Yeah, it looked like the pattern finally flipped in March- below average temps and 2.7" of snow. Had it not been for March it would've been a near-shutout. I remember in another thread awhile back (I think it was in WestminsterDeathband's outlook thread) that '31/'32 still had the hottest DJFM record despite the cold March. '11/'12 was the opposite and took 2nd place mostly because of the extreme March. Getting the hottest DJFM might be more doable if we'd somehow wind up torching the whole winter but I'd have to look at it closer.

I don't know about DCA but BWI, despite being 3 degrees ahead, would still have to get somewhere around a +11.5 dep. (3rd hottest) in January just to keep pace. And then Feb. '32 was also 4th hottest (+7 dep.). I guess anything's possible but it sounds like long range isn't showing warmth anywhere near December levels.

The most anomalous month at BWI is January 1932 at +14.5. We're not getting that high this month, but I assume Dec. 2015 will be in the top ten of positive departures of any month though. Edit: you all ever look at some of the departures in 1931-32? Crazy stuff. I think Sept. 1931 - Feb. 1932 may be the most anomalous heat in modern history. We'll never beat 31/32 for hottest winter lol

This is currently ranked as the 12th hottest March... we might have a shot at top 10 but I haven't run the numbers.

Its all about the dewpoint... 73 with sunny blue skies and a dewpoint of 40 is awesome. 73 with a dewpoint of 66 at 3am after a rainfall, with bugs and worms everywhere? -not so much lol

I use "hot" just to denote records- I like to have my page consistent. It gets sloppy when I write "hottest July" but "warmest December". Honestly some of the dewpoints and highest minimums felt quite uncomfortable to me- though technically not "hot" I guess.