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Everything posted by jpeters3

  1. There are clearly several regions on the south end where echoes drop below 20 dBz though. So the intense eyewall convection is fairly degraded down there. I'm not saying that recon will find this region completely devoid of convection and bright moonlight shining in, and these asymmetric eyewall structures are somewhat common in event intense hurricanes. All i'm saying is that this may but a damper on continued strengthening. But this seemed to have ignited a massive controversy.
  2. For all you idiots who are acting like I just insulted a member of your family, here is the KHGX view which shows the same structure. These ignorant comments about radar attenuation need to stop.
  3. This is is not attenuation for the last time. It shows up on multiple radars in the same location. Rain doesn't typically attenuate WSR88Ds at this range.
  4. IR satellite does not tell you about eyewall structure in nearly as much detail as radar.
  5. It's not radar issues. We've been over this.
  6. Southern eyewall appears to have eroded completely. Show might be over in terms of strengthening.
  7. That's probably it. There was a weak signature in IR. I have never heard of this before today.
  8. There is obviously still time, and pressure seems to still be falling. New recon is inbound, so lets see what they find in the NW quad. But I doubt there will even be a post-season upgrade unless there is something unflagged > 140 combined with dropsonde data that at least implicitly supports this intensity.
  9. There were numerous indicators of > 140 kt in the case of Michael. We haven't seen that yet here.
  10. I agree with this. Upgrade to cat 5 probably means confident SFMR > 140, perhaps with dropsonde support. We definitely don't have that yet.
  11. He clearly meant the first landfall in LA.
  12. There needs to be an all encompassing "you're just f**ed" warning.
  13. SFMR on the northern side getting MIGHTY close to 140 kt
  14. The 155 mph cat4 vs cat5 on PR is quibbling, given that the threshold for cat 5 is 157 mph.
  15. I actually found it quite humorous
  16. Yeah i'm with you. Saying the outflow looks restricted seems like grasping for straws at this point. Satellite presentation looks better than ever. ADT holding at T6.5, as high as ever.
  17. Yeah, you were right to argue about that one. I can't think of another comparable example.
  18. FWIW, KTLH is consistently showing 160-170 mph maximum inbound returns in the right quadrant.
  19. You can also look at the KLCH radar - no indication of secondary reflectivity max there. Just a MASSIVE inner eyewall.
  20. Recall the argument over whether a 929 mb cat 5 was possible in the Gulf? Seems like we could end up with a ~940 mb cat 5 by the time this is over.
  21. Regarding the weak returns in the southern eyewall, this appears to be a robust signature (It has been persistent from all radar vantages), and is probably indicative of southwesterly shear. Doesn't necessarily mean the onset of weakening at all - to the contrary, the satellite presentation looks the best it has yet. If you recall, Harvey made landfall with a similar "incomplete" eyewall signature, whilst rapidly intensifying. It's simply an observation that indicates the presence of some shear in the environment.