jpeters3

3 minutes ago, dan11295 said:

Regarding Rainfall. Hilo has had 9.92" in the last 18 hours. Radar looks to continue to hammer that area in the coming hours.

Rainfall totals like this probably happen there once a year (Hilo is one of the rainiest cities in the US).  Hopefully this means the soil/infrastructure/ground substructure can handle what's to come...

54 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The 6z HWRF is a landfall in Oahu in 36 hrs as major.... 

Largely on its own, with only a few members of EPS hinting at this potential. 

That said still significant track/intensity uncertainty with Lane over next 48 hr. Part of this, I presume has to do with the development of another weak tropical disturbance to his east. The euro has this disturbance develop into a weak TS and head towards the big island. I would think —all else being equal —-that could cause Lane to track more north, than west. Imo it also helps explain the significant divergence (split)  in modeled tracks over the next 24 hr....

Correction, this run has landfall on Lanai and then Molokai as Major.

6 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

The big island is barely populated. Maui is populated but most of Hawaii’s population lives on Ohau.

This is kind of an ignorant post.  The big island is the second most populated island, with over 100,000 people.  Though HNL is the most populated island, there is still plenty of population and infrastructure on Maui and the Big Island.  The central and SW coasts of Maui and the western coast of the Big Island are particularly vulnerable.  

4 hours ago, NJwx85 said:

IR looks like ERC underway, but hard to tell. Overall appearance still looking stellar.

Edit: Perhaps some southeasterly shear starting to take affect. Outflow seems a bit restricted in that quadrant.

Yep.  You can see the southeasterly shear blowing cloud tops toward the NNE in the lower-left part of the AVN loop.

20 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

 

I'll bet CPHC is a bit more used to relying on DT/ADT numbers than NHC (at least for the atlantic).  ADT numbers are still ~ 130 kt, which is probably why they are staying conservative.  Regardless of the official intensity, the actual intensity is what it is.  Their decision is a bit questionable, but the official forecast has no impact on what the actual intensity is.

2 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

well if it goes offshore from san juan st john and st thomas would be blasted...

Ugh.  You're right.  That's probably an unfavorable scenario.  Can't really win at this point.

1 minute ago, bobbutts said:

Barring a change in direction it looks to make a close run at San Juan.

 

Ugh! Given the unfavorable wobble over Dominica, maybe we'll get a favorable wobble offshore (or westward) upon landfall away from San Juan and population.  A guy can hope...

1 minute ago, Hotair said:

HMON projecting 880 mb. Can someone please confirm?

HMON pressures are not reliable.  HMON predicted something like 857 mb over the FL keys with Irma, which didn't even come close to happening.

Just now, Superstorm93 said:

I'm not really sure what the actual intensity would be after seeing that sonde.

A few have malfunctioned, but definitely need more data here. 

Could be at least 160 knots now. 

Yeah - the average wind from ~ 900 hPa to ~ 920 hPa was greater than 160 kts.  Pretty incredible.

Just now, Superstorm93 said:

 

Instantaneous 

 

That was the SW eyewall. Winds might be stronger. 

That's still pretty spectacular, given that it was the SW eyewall.  And it hit the surface at 921 hPa, which suggests to me that the center might have gone below 909.

Does this graphic show 10s average or gust?

I don't typically use this site, but is this forreal? 168 kt at surface?

9 minutes ago, mattb65 said:

Raw T#s were specifically mentioned in the NHC discussion and they are definitely pertinent to monitor as a pretty reliable sign of cyclone intensification or weakening.  Raw T is still slowly rising as you mentioned.  The drama yesterday was uneccessary.

 

Likely this cyclone is still intensifying.  The environment still looks ideal with only internal processes that could possibly lower max intensity until land interaction. 

Agree.  I for one appreciate the Raw T updates (they save me from having to go look them up myself!)

3 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Hurricanes can influence earthquakes - but not a 50km deep quake like what just hit Mexico City.  That quake was likely triggered by the quake 'upstream' in the subducting slab several days ago, which might have increased strain deeper down and also weakened the fault.

This sort of discussion is probably better left to seismologists, and not weather weenies like us.

8 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

With the eye looking so good on infrared Im surprised the vis. shows a low cloud cover.  We will know very shortly what's going on, recon getting close...

Some degree of low-cloud cover is common, even among the most intense hurricanes.  This probably because subsidence cannot penetrate into the boundary layer, so you get a thermal structure with a warm moist boundary layer, and a warm cap a few km up.  Below that cap, shallow convection is possible. 

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Could be stadium effect playing optical games with you. 

I noticed this with Andrew, where the eyewall "ring" on radar actually looked like it fit inside the eye visible in infrared imagery.

 

Recon is currently entering the outer circulation

2 minutes ago, adiabatic13 said:

I'll go for 150kt min at reconn, they don't look much better than this and it's a tight core

For the sake of comparison, Patricia had a raw T of 8.3 after its bout of rapid intensification, with 190 kt (current storm is up to 7.3).  Your estimate could actually be realistic.

5 minutes ago, cmasty1978 said:

thanks, ive have been following TC's for decades.

but please feel free to tell us every time it fluctuates. super useful.

This post is ignorant and uncalled for.  This storm is clearly rapidly intensifying (rather than simply fluctuating to a temporary high T value).

Raw T to 7.1.  That's higher than it ever was for Wilma.

1 minute ago, adiabatic13 said:

NHC intensity estimate is much too low, Dominica will experience damage on par with Irma in BVI, hope Dominica's much larger population is aware that the strongest hurricane in the island's history is on her doorstep...just look at the trapeziodal eye, very very impressive

Fortunately, preparations for a 115 kt storm are pretty much the same as those for a 130-140 kt storm (which is probably closer to reality).  GTF away from low-lying areas, take shelter from debris.

1 minute ago, Amped said:

Only a 7 knot boost for rapid intensification?  I would have upped it to just shy of cat 5

Regardless of the advisory intensity, the storm's actual intensity is what it is - and Dominica is about to feel the full brunt of it.  Was really hoping this storm could threat the needle between islands :-(

2003 census puts the population at 71,727.

9 minutes ago, Amped said:

Raw T 6.7, probably around 130kts.  Gotta hate those 1.3T/6hr constraints during RI.

Raw T is up to 6.9 right now.  Given the satellite presentation, I wouldn't be surprised if we have a borderline cat 5 on our hands, and after what was probably a very rapid deepening. 

Wilma experienced a very similarly rapid jump in raw T to 7.0 (below is from Wilma)

5OCT18 221500  4.6  983.0/  +5.8 / 79.6  4.6 4.6 4.6 4.6  NO LIMIT   OFF  -67.86 -71.70  UNIFRM   N/A    16.73   81.55   SPRL   
2005OCT18 224500  4.6  983.0/  +5.8 / 79.6  4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7  NO LIMIT   OFF  -68.36 -72.47  UNIFRM   N/A    16.76   81.60   SPRL   
2005OCT18 231500  4.7  981.2/  +5.8 / 82.2  4.7 4.7 5.1 5.9  0.5T/hour  OFF  -57.56 -75.92  EYE/OB   N/A    16.69   81.64   SPRL   
2005OCT18 234500  4.7  981.2/  +5.8 / 82.2  4.7 4.7 5.1 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -66.26 -77.70  EYE/OB   N/A    16.73   81.68   SPRL   
2005OCT19 001500  4.8  979.5/  +5.9 / 84.8  4.8 4.8 5.2 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -65.36 -79.40  EYE/OB   N/A    16.66   81.73   SPRL   
2005OCT19 004500  4.9  977.7/  +5.9 / 87.4  4.9 4.9 5.2 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -64.96 -79.99  EYE/OB   N/A    16.59   81.77   SPRL   
2005OCT19 011500  5.0  975.9/  +5.9 / 90.0  5.0 5.0 5.3 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -65.36 -80.42  EYE/OB   N/A    16.63   81.81   SPRL   
2005OCT19 014500  5.1  973.9/  +5.9 / 92.4  5.0 5.1 5.4 6.0  0.5T/hour  OFF  -57.26 -80.64  EYE/OB   N/A    16.66   81.86   SPRL   
2005OCT19 021500  5.2  971.8/  +5.8 / 94.8  5.1 5.2 5.5 6.5  0.5T/hour  OFF  -52.96 -81.04  EYE/OB   N/A    16.69   81.80   SPRL   
2005OCT19 031500  5.4  967.8/  +5.8 / 99.6  5.2 5.4 5.6 6.5  0.5T/hour  OFF  -34.96 -81.24  EYE/OB   N/A    16.76   81.87   SPRL   
2005OCT19 034500  5.4  967.7/  +5.7 / 99.6  5.3 5.4 5.7 7.0  0.5T/hour  OFF   -7.96 -81.37  EYE/R    N/A    16.87   81.82   SPRL

Looks like concentric eyewalls may be forming on the Martinique radar.  Hoping this can thread the needle between Martinique and Dominica...

5 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

The dry air has really gotten to Maria this morning.  The core convection has collapsed.

Shear associated with the upper trough to the system's west.