
jpeters3
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Posts posted by jpeters3
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Just now, thunderbolt said:Listen dude we can go back-and-forth all day long all I was doing was posting with the national Hurricane center was saying that’s all if you want to say it’s weakening Will go with it either way strong category four with category five it’s still going to be devastating we both can agree to that
We can agree on that. Devastating impacts regardless of whether it's a cat 4 or 5.
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Just now, thunderbolt said:Once again do you work for the national hurricane center
You clearly don't understand what you are talking about. Just because someone doesn't work for the national hurricane center doesn't mean that they aren't a professional in the field.
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1 minute ago, thunderbolt said:So you work for the national hurricane center
I am a meteorology professor.
Why don't you go find me an observation from the previous two recon missions that supports a cat 5 intensity?
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3 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:Before you make a comment that it’s weakening an hour before the hurricane center put out a statement I believe is totally unprofessional Then again they are professionals and you’re not
First of all, what you posted doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but I gather that it was meant to be condescending. Second of all, I am a professional. Third of all, go look at the data yourself. Don't just keep saying I'm wrong.
Edit: the last several missions are available to you on Tropical Tidbits. -
Just now, hlcater said:Perhaps even more puzzling:
7:00 PM EST Mon Nov 16
Location: 13.6°N 83.0°W
Moving: W at 9 mph
Min pressure: 918 mb
Max sustained: 160 mphThis portion of the track will probably be downgraded in post-storm analysis.
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3 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:917 mb per the dropsonde, so the pressure is not rising at all. It's just a structure issue knocking the wind down.
I see 919, but with a 17 kt surface wind. This suggests 917ish.
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2 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:Then why did they say it is a category five then
Not really sure, and the forecast discussion seemed to acknowledge that it probably wasn't actually a cat 5. But they have the same data we do, and it's pretty easy to look at the data yourself by simply paging back in this thread. The last recon mission did not obtain one observation that supported cat 5. The current recon is finding even weaker winds at the surface, which continues to support weakening. So before you tell everyone in the thread they are wrong, I suggest you browse the available information.
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18 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:For those who thought this was possibly weakening. Not
The discussions of weakening were based on numerous recon observations. Suggest doing some reading before making these sorts of statements.
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5 minutes ago, Morris said:It seems pretty clear that we have a strong cat 4, with anomalous low pressure.
Yes. For what it's worth, the pressure has probably ticked up a few MB since passes earlier today, which is also consistent with a slight weakening.
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9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:919 mb per dropsonde
3 kt surface wind. You don't hit it more "dead on" than that!
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6 minutes ago, BYG Jacob said:Its a category 5
Recon suggests only cat 4 winds at the moment.
This is what @Orangeburgwx was referring to
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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:Lol. Lorenzo was so boring that we’ve forgotten.
oh yeah. Lorenzo was indeed boring. It spent like 5 seconds as cat 5?
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1 minute ago, Amped said:The intensity matches the T number and it's moving in a straight line. It's been so boring since that 10mb/hr pressure drop last night.
Most boring cat 5 since Matthew.
Edit: is there a consensus on the most boring cat 5?-
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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:We still have to see if Eta gets a post-analysis upgrade. Remember we had the recon problems at its peak. Still could be 2 cat 5's for this season.
I strongly doubt this upgrade, with literally no evidence (besides clearly biased RAW T) to support cat 5.
Though, if we could my egregious prediction of 882 mb for central pressure on that one, maybe they will upgrade it-
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6 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:It's so bizarre to me how storms this year can't go beyond that 150-155 mph hump....
It's quite likely that it was above the 155 mph hump in earlier recon passes. There are some hints in the IR of a bit of core degradation relative to the peak earlier this morning.
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Just now, sojitodd said:Iota is extraordinarily beautiful on satellite presentation.
I agree they really should do a special update or something to acknowledge a cat 5. If it warrants a cat 5 it should be acknowledged, especially since "cat 5" will make anyone in the path of it even more likely to take any and every precaution, and they will expect a cat 5 surge, which they will likely get even if it weakens at this point.
Regardless of whether there is an upgrade right now, I think there is enough data (i.e. multiple > 140 kt unflagged SFMR, pressure < 920 mb) for a post-season upgrade.
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9 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:916 ON THE SCONDE!
Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
Looks like this was a sonde that terminated prior to reaching the surface. Lowest sonde measured pressure was 920 (as indicated by @JasonOH's post).
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Just now, Floydbuster said:Why have three recons turned around in 24 hrs? What in the world??
Just now, StormChaser4Life said:Seriously....why?!
Evil exists.
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1 minute ago, Windspeed said:Some left the party too fast. lol... Eta is still reaching for peak.
Still here
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Eye sonde 928 mb at 17 kts. So ~925-927 sounds about right.
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Just now, JasonOH said:That north eyewall didn't have a surface report though. We only know the last report was at 929mb before it cut out.
Ahhh, got it.
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Wait, 929 mb at 75 kt??? Something smells fishy here. Methinks they didn't hit the center.
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Just now, the ghost of leroy said:call me a traditionalist but gilbert and allen kinda slay what comes after...just based on looks...
Gilbert at peak.
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Category 5 Hurricane Iota
in Tropical Headquarters
Posted
I was not. But I study thunderstorms/convection, so I I think that qualifies me as a "professional"