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Posts posted by jpeters3

  1. 7 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

    Question?? Does the strength of the hurricane have any track implications?

    Probably not when you're talking about the difference between cat 4 and 5, but certainly when you're talking about the difference between a Ts/weak disorganized hurricane and a major hurricane.

    • Like 1

  2. 1 minute ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    Tonight into tomorrow morning is it. Once it ERC’s it’ll go full crazy truck tire and then we are rooting for an Isabel situation. 

    I had quite a chuckle at "full crazy truck tire" ;)

    Next NOAA mission about to penetrate the core.

  3. Just now, JasonOH said:

    2130z (~1 hour ago) microwave pass. Eyewall isn’t even symmetrical as of that pass. This definitely has a chance at making a run for cat 5 if that hot tower can swing all the way around and strengthen the south side.


    Radar attenuation?? :axe:

    • Haha 15
    • Weenie 1

  4. 1 minute ago, WxWatcher007 said:

    After sputtering a bit early this morning, Teddy is humming right now. Definitely looking like a contender to continue the streak of category 5 hurricanes in the basin if it can stay away from an ERC. No indications of that cycle beginning at the moment. Recon entering now.


    I was about to make fun of all the people who keep saying this will make a run for cat 5, but ADT is now solidly at 6.6 (corresponding to 130 kt) with Raw T at 7.0.  Doesn't really have that far to go to pull a Lorenzo...

  5. 4 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    What do you think about its appearance on various IR channels? Looks great on vis but I switch to anything else and then go “oh that’s why it’s a cat 3”. The east side is really kinda grungy still.  

    Yeah, I honestly think it could go either way.  There is clearly some shear affecting the CDO (making it asymmetric). 

  6. 38 minutes ago, the ghost of leroy said:

    Not quite yet. Dropsondes don’t measure sustained winds. This is close but I they may go 110 kts instead of 115 because the SFMR readings are a little low

    Though, it doesn't look like that surface wind was related to a gust/mesovotex.  The consistent readings of 130 kt aloft as well suggest to me that 115 kt might be a reasonable intensity.

  7. Just now, JakkelWx said:


    Again, is anyone in this forum **really that surprised** to see a comment like this??

    But to answer the question, no **that** (whatever "that" is) is probably not an eye clearing out.

    • Like 6

  8. 2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said:

    It really is shocking how cold Sally's cloud tops are, especially in the middle of the day. Looks like something right from the bowels of the WPAC

    There were consistent radar echo tops > 60,000 ft this morning - not sure I have ever seen this in a TC.

    • Like 1

  9. 2 hours ago, Normandy said:

    One question I have:. Why do people dismiss/downplay high wind readings because they are associated with mesovorticies? Are these not a part of the storm and this representative of sustained winds?  If a mesovort produces one minute sustained winds of 140 mph, is the storm not a 140 mph storm? Perhaps some pros can chime in

    If a mesovortex produces sustained winds of 140 mph, than it's a 140 mph storm.  However, meso-vortices are more likely to produce really fast instantaneous gusts, but not necessarily contribute a lot to the overall sustained winds.  So people are probably discounting instantaneous gusts as being part of meso-vortices.

    • Like 1

  10. 1 hour ago, Windspeed said:
    7 hours ago, NJwx85 said:
    Honestly, who gives a damn what the seasonal ACE ends up being if most of the activity stays out to sea. I think the majority would agree that a category 2 hurricane making landfall in the US is a lot more interesting from a hobbyist standpoint than a category 4 hurricane re curving way out to sea.


    I mean part of an active season, especially hyperactive is your general September central Atlantic hurricanes. They usually produce a big chunk of ACE and most of the hyperactive years have them. I just enjoy tracking, attempting forecasts and observing the outcomes. Whether they are land threats or not matters little to me. Though I would prefer they avoid populated areas. A big CV hurricane is my favorite even if it threatens nothing but shipping. Aside from Dorian, Lorenzo was an incredible storm to track as well last year. Perhaps we'll get a few beasts over the next month.

    Yeah I'm with you.  I would rather see a monster cat 4 or 5 storm that remains out to see, than mayhem/destruction related to landfall.  This is why I find the east pac season fun to track.

  11. 13 hours ago, the ghost of leroy said:



    13 hours ago, hlcater said:

    I still maintain that the amount of attenuation going on was negligible. This is especially true when in Laura's case, the southern part of the eyewall was weaker the entire day on both HGX and LCH and this is a weakness that was also evident on recon data. So while attenuation may be a convenient explanation, at least from what I can tell(and who knows maybe im wildly off the mark here) it doesn't seem to be the correct one.



    Then watch as the eyewall consolidated on LCH and HGX on final approach to the coast. My best guess is that frictional convergence played a role in this process but this consolidation was very much legitimate and not some radar enhanced artifact. There was almost certainly some attenuation going on from LCH (especially earlier in the day at higher beam heights) but in the hours before landfall, as @jpeters3 had explained, the amount of attenuation occurring was not enough to sufficiently explain such a weakness there on its own. 



    Appreciate the support ;)

    Certainly an interesting feature, and again seems to have occurred in past intense TCs (Harvey, Michael).  My suspicion is that it has to do with the modest southerly shear.

  12. Just now, JasonOH said:

    The good news is that there’s no datapoint for the surface on that sonde so we don’t know exactly how high that is. Sondes measure wind instantaneously so it may have caught a gust in a mesovort.

    This is probably what happened.  Seems like there is a reasonable case for 125 kt as the current intensity based on the most recent AF mission.