jpeters3

Meteorologist
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Posts posted by jpeters3


  1. Just now, thunderbolt said:

    Listen dude we can go back-and-forth all day long all I was doing was posting with the national Hurricane center was saying that’s all if you want to say it’s weakening  Will go with it either way strong category four with category five it’s still going to be devastating we both can agree to that

    We can agree on that.  Devastating impacts regardless of whether it's a cat 4 or 5.

    • Like 1

  2. Just now, thunderbolt said:

    Once again do you work for the national hurricane center

    You clearly don't understand what you are talking about.  Just because someone doesn't work for the national hurricane center doesn't mean that they aren't a professional in the field.

    • Like 3

  3. 3 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

    Before you make a comment that it’s weakening an hour before the hurricane center put out a statement I believe is totally unprofessional Then again they are professionals and you’re not

    First of all, what you posted doesn't make a whole lot of sense, but I gather that it was meant to be condescending.  Second of all, I am a professional.  Third of all, go look at the data yourself.  Don't just keep saying I'm wrong. 

    Edit: the last several missions are available to you on Tropical Tidbits.


  4. 2 minutes ago, thunderbolt said:

     Then why did they say it is a category five then

    Not really sure, and the forecast discussion seemed to acknowledge that it probably wasn't actually a cat 5.  But they have the same data we do, and it's pretty easy to look at the data yourself by simply paging back in this thread.  The last recon mission did not obtain one observation that supported cat 5.  The current recon is finding even weaker winds at the surface, which continues to support weakening.  So before you tell everyone in the thread they are wrong, I suggest you browse the available information.


  5. 5 minutes ago, Morris said:

    It seems pretty clear that we have a strong cat 4, with anomalous low pressure. 

    Yes.  For what it's worth, the pressure has probably ticked up a few MB since passes earlier today, which is also consistent with a slight weakening.


  6. 1 minute ago, Amped said:

    The intensity matches the T number and it's moving in a straight line. It's been so boring since that 10mb/hr pressure drop last night.

    Most boring cat 5 since Matthew.


    Edit: is there a consensus on the most boring cat 5?

    • Haha 2

  7. 4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

    We still have to see if Eta gets a post-analysis upgrade. Remember we had the recon problems at its peak. Still could be 2 cat 5's for this season.

    I strongly doubt this upgrade, with literally no evidence (besides clearly biased RAW T) to support cat 5.


    Though, if we could my egregious prediction of 882 mb for central pressure on that one, maybe they will upgrade it ^_^

    • Haha 6

  8. 6 minutes ago, LovingGulfLows said:

     

    It's so bizarre to me how storms this year can't go beyond that 150-155 mph hump....

    It's quite likely that it was above the 155 mph hump in earlier recon passes.  There are some hints in the IR of a bit of core degradation relative to the peak earlier this morning.

    • Like 2

  9. Just now, sojitodd said:

    Iota is extraordinarily beautiful on satellite presentation.

    I agree they really should do a special update or something to acknowledge a cat 5.  If it warrants a cat 5 it should be acknowledged, especially since "cat 5" will make anyone in the path of it even more likely to take any and every precaution, and they will expect a cat 5 surge, which they will likely get even if it weakens at this point.

    Regardless of whether there is an upgrade right now, I think there is enough data (i.e. multiple > 140 kt unflagged SFMR, pressure < 920 mb) for a post-season upgrade.

    • Like 1