wdrag

Interesting counterpoint... good to have this further discussed, if there is any other science.

Good morning NYC--- and all surroundings! Wish I had better news, for something more than mood flakes-dustings-coatings Sunday morning, probably by 10AM, possibly as soon as midnight tonight in the western suburbs. Model disagreement says, no guarantee, and this could be showery or if you weren't up to see it-you might miss whatever. Also don 't think it's worthy to stay up for, except that from my view, due to EC consistency, NYC should (or is it could?) receive it's first Trace of snow in the air Sunday (not the hail Trace of the 13th). Some of the models are dry, so that tells me, miniscule...but I'll probably start a thread (mood flurries, or dustings Sunday morning), pending the 18z cycle from today, presuming there is still a chance in the coastal plain. The lead short wave diving southeast from the Great Lakes is the driver...it weakens as it crosses PA early Sunday, and with low dew points in place, some (maybe most) of the falling snow aloft will dry out in the coastal plain, ne PA/nw NJ hills could see spotty 1/2", maybe too se NYS with less, if any in CT. The following primary trough aloft passes through our area Monday, when we could see a snow shower or flurry. Nothingburger as some would say, but for a first somewhat widespread hour to 3 hours of snow (no guarantee widespread), that's what makes it worth it. Certainly wouldn't thread something like this in mid winter, though with the much discussed future winter pattern, is this all there is going to be (-NAO to boot)? Happy shopping! 619A/27 Corrected nothingburger spelling at 922A.

Bumpy?

Wantagh NYS Mesonet and ISP have hit 40-42 knot. Minor impacts.

Ditto harmless a little bit around here in nw NJ. mPING helpful. 37.6F at 740'MSL. Max G 26MPH so far today. My guess is that gust will increase this evening.

Let's add the misery map starting to show some wind related delays. My guess is this will increase through 10 PM. s NJ in the upper 30s (knots) and even near NYC now in the mid -upper 30s knots. Click the images for greater clarity.

CMC a little later than I'd like (Monday). EC still on board. UK sort of odd 12z/26 OP 500MB evolution. I still don't know for sure. IF it's going to snow Sunday morning I'd like to see the GFS/NAM on board as well as GGEM/RGEM. fwiw: very recent wind gusts over 40 knots... just sw of our area. KACY: Atlantic City, Atlantic City Intl Arpt, NJ, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KBWI: Baltimore, MD, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KCII: Choteau, MT, United States [41kt, 21m/s] KCTB: Cut Bank, Cut Bank Municipal Airport, MT, United States [49kt, 25m/s] KGTF: Great Falls, Great Falls Intl Arpt, MT, United States [43kt, 22m/s] KHGR: Hagerstown, MD, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KIAD: Washington-Dulles Intl Arpt, VA, United States [45kt, 23m/s] KJYO: Leesburg / Godfrey, VA, United States [40kt, 21m/s] KLWT: Lewistown, Lewistown Municipal Airport, MT, United States [48kt, 25m/s] KMRB: Martinsburg, WV, United States [43kt, 22m/s]

Mood snows, slight hazards and that's all there is for the winter? Looks sort of pathetic right now, but enjoy whatever we get by sunrise Monday, cause it's difficult at this time to see a snowy start for December. Todays rain will change to accumulative snow in the Poconos around 9-10AM and taper to gusty flurries midday..an inch or two highest elevations. Road accumulations may be spotty due to still generally above freezing temps. We in far northwest NJ might even see the rain end as non-accumulative wet snow midday. The hills of northwest CT change over between Noon-3PM with there too an inch or two the most likely outcome higher terrain. The hills of northeast CT change to snow between 3P-5P and may accumulate 1-2" before it tapers off to flurries tonight. The Boston area should see some snow with the west and northern suburbs picking up maybe an inch in a few spots. Sunday: I84 corridor-- A period of snow in the morning, mainly west of the Connecticut River with a Trace to 1", the 1" best chance in the Poconos. Presuming it snows, it sticks on everything not treated in the Poconos. Another period of snow is possible Sunday night with additional minor coatings here and there. Graphics on the storm thread. IF this that occurs the next 72 hours is nothing-burger, wonder what the rest of the of winter provides... storms for sure, but sure looks like inside runners for the next couple of weeks, unless we thread the needle. This block is what we needed right now... maybe we'll luck out this winter, even with all the discussion of negative PDO,ENSO/SST signals. Should I get depressed about a projected lower than normal snow winter or just accept and ride it out? My snowblower is tuned up for the first time in 5 years. Is that a surefire winter killer? Think I'll put my snow stakes in today. Have a good weekend and let's see what transpires. 835A/26

So we will see what happens... a couple of graphics for the next 3 days. Click each for detail, if interested and use the legend for your area of interest. The bottom graphic is the 8 member SPC HREF ensemble for today-tonight. Elevation snow or flurries anticipated for the I84 high terrain today...all dependent on your location.

Agreed--we'll take anything we can get. My confidence decreases next week as block goes away. I checked the 06z EC and it snows NYC, exceedingly minor but it snows. Its 06z ensembles continue developments off Cape Cod. I agree on fast mover and this is over by dawn Monday, whatever it is. I leave you with 06z/25 GEFS prob for>1" snow... and a first look at MPAS which has microphysics embedded. Not sure how constructive this is (especially the last graphic), but overall... nw of I95 looks for a whitening and if we can get qpf prior to Noon Sunday, I can see the same to NYC doorstep to CP (cars/grass). Use the graphics with care... and ensure perspective.

Thank you and how true! ANOTHER reason to be thankful. Only a Trace so far this season in Wantage (19th-6AM).

Also, fwiw, will change thread headline to first widespread (minor) snow of the winter, IF future modeling holds. Wind obs over 45 MPH (any damage) can go into this thread as is, since at this time, I don't think that aspect the weekend will be heavily loaded. I probably will start an OBS thread for the first widespread snowfall of the season, Saturday evening, for the Sunday event,,, presuming it still looks similar. Just need to wait it out and be 95% certain.

Maybe even Sunday morning 9AM? Not impossible to have a touch of white on cars/grass there in the city and parts of LI. Hope it works out. Kind of a nice start to the winter if it comes to pass.

Wind Friday 4P-midnight: Might gust briefly past 45 MPH in cold air advection for the coastal plain. Follow NWS on any statements if this would come to pass. I think the ridges look like best small chance of isolated gust 50 MPH.

Happy Thanksgiving everyone! The first of the season for the interior northwest of I-95- A 'widespread' little bit of snow. Starting with the Poconos where snow cover has already occurred earlier this month. Snow showers Friday with a possible spotty up to 1". Those higher elevations may see chilling gusts near 50 MPH Frday afternoon or evening. The more widespread periodic snowfall will occur Sunday, tapering off to a few flurries Monday morning. Amounts should range from a Trace (NYC) to maybe 1/2" I-80 to I-78, mainly Sunday 5AM-Noon. But from just north of I-80 through the entire I-84 corridor, 1-2" should fall by sunrise Monday: isolated 3-4" 'possible' highest terrain. It begins Sunday morning and may continue periodically into daybreak Monday. Untreated surfaces will become slippery at times. Thankful for this little touch of winter coming to part of our area. Walt 634A/25

I quickly looks at 12z EPS-NAEFS and 18z/24 GEFS. Most of the development looks a little late and 850 LOW still n of our latitude. To me, the 18z/24 GEFS total positive snow depth change looks about as good as it can get in our area and it won't surprise me if its a little less. I95 itself T to maybe spotty 1/2"?? but my guess is roads wet. I84: small accums, especially elevations with heaviest CT. Just my early guess. Ensembles dont have much qpf so I kind of think I need to be conservative and just hope nw tip NJ gets an inch or 2?? As we draw closer and it becomes clearer we can do better, then we can enjoy. Just don't want to be too optimistic about snow I95. At least this pattern gives us an opportunity for something small...I'd like to see it realized near I95 northwestward. and let's not forget Friday wind potential, late in the day when the coldest part of the trough is overhead w NW 850 winds increasing to around 45-50kt. How deep the transfer, not quite sure yet.

Thanks for the posts... I have yet to examine 12z/24 ensembles and probably won't be able to til after 8P... but, probably good to discuss this coming pair of events (Fri, Sun-Mon). Timing short wave passage Monday seems differ on the models. Anyway, glad it's still viable. I may be too enthusiastic but it's a bit of a start. BIG N Atlc BLOCK has helped set it up...

Thread now refocuses headline on part TWO 26-28, w possible extension to 29 in the future. Part ONE failed due to modeling leading up to the 15th issuance being too deep aloft, too quick. Ended up further east and we were dry with a chill gusty wind. Tags: dropped heavy rain, and changed damaging wind to wind event. Modeling beginning with the cycles of Tuesday the 23rd have increasingly hinted at a possible wind advisory event for part of the area later Friday into Saturday morning followed by some sort of snow or flurry event Sunday - possibly lingering into Monday. Questionable outcome but we do know the modeling is digging a 3rd strong short wave trough into the northeast USA late this coming weekend. Therefore, while the first on the 23rd didn't produce hazardous weather, the second may generate a bit of a wind event in the wake of the cold frontal passage late this Friday, and the 3rd may allow some sort of coastal low to develop Sunday, departing Monday the 29th. Uncertainty exists.

A thread for this (part two) is already out there, if you become more confident. I'm a little hesitant right now...models have bern vacillating, GFS op generally out to seas and I dont have any confidence in the ICON. Maybe tomorrow morning will show some slight consistency? I'd like to see the EC have snow for us, 3 consecutive runs. In any case, the pattern is fairly blocky and good cold for us but whether anything can generate other than a CFP Sunday, am unsure.

Thread is already there and set up... maybe we can actually get something. Jury out and I've no solid clue. Later edit... at 236P. Or did you mean 12/3-5? We're getting ensembles to get see very cold 500MB departures Tue and Fri night. Sooner or later, some snow or flurries has to get down here to NYC or near. If not in this pattern, then I'm less confident on any extended predictability beyond Dec 2 as big Greenland block looks to have disappeared.

Thank you for your note... I try not to gaffe too many, otherwise it's crying wolf. We did know that it wasn't a lock. This first one is quite the weakened-positive tilt 500MB trough that both ensembles at 7 days and beyond had considerably wrong, GEFS more so than the more progressive EPS. Disappointing yes, but the expected and still to develop near Greenland block I thought would be enough to justify the consideration. Event #2 is still on the boards, even if miniscule. Could be a windy cold event with a few flurries or something a little more but overall... I think at least through Thanksgiving, most welcome the relatively quiet pattern here. No comment on event #2 til it's more certain to be nothing or something.

Monday: bands of Lake Effect snow showers in the wake of the CFP, mostly Catskills Poconos northwestward on Monday. Lingering flurries Tuesday morning. You should manage fine. Smart driving.

Ordinary weather... despite the developing pattern aloft next week. I like the 00z/19 10 day ops, but it's 10 day, just like the 10 day outlooks waere for this coming Monday-Wednesday, which probably won't be much more than developing blustery chill and some flurries, maybe even a flurry down to NYC? If and when the shorter term offers a little more than a 40 kt gust here and there, or deposits snow/ice over the interior...I'll tend to refrain from commenting. This coming Mon-Wed ahead ends up too late too far east, earliest hint of this was the GEFS a few days ago, in the initial topic discussion. Til whenever, have a good day(s) shopping-prepping for the Holidays.

Attempting to shift the conversation back from METS GM to what still needs to be monitored via the 06Z GEFS animation. Note at 18z Tuesday, the most intense phase of this system is in progress with a -6SD=purple (for the season and our LA/LO) 500MB trough that is closing off further and further south. This is the multi member display and averaged. Lots can be gained from animating (checkmark) and or scrolling through the times. Other features of note are a good positive tilt track for the next weekend system with vort probably across NJ, AND this 06z GEFS modeled continuing depressed (maybe too far south) storm track in early DEC with still above normal heights in northeast Canada. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/fxg1/ENSHGTAVGNH_6z/ensloopmref.html

Nothing going on yet, that warrants lots of confident hazard occurrence attention. Nice looking potential at 500 MB but surface response is chaotic as someone previously pointed out. Not throwing in the towel yet as we are 5-7 days out for event one, and 9-11 days out on event two. As I sit here at 624A having reviewed my favorite 00z/06z Nov 18, 2021 ops/ensembles...I see slightest chance for iso SVR early Monday morning the 22nd, scattered back side wind gusts 40 knots or so Wednesday, especially NYC/NJ/PA. Backside very minor snow looks to me like I84 elevation best and just a small chance for a few flurries NYC Wednesday. The event for next Friday-Sunday, whenever it occurs is also chaotically modeled from cycle to cycle. It is I think beginning to edge out the first one on general qpf, but it too may be too warm except maybe for I-84 elevations. I do think an event is coming then... and maybe if its too warm, we'll see some brief scattered backside wind of 40 knots. A nice looking potential pattern based on the developing Greenland Block,and it's enhancing digging-sharpening 500MB trough of early next week, but what it yields, is uncertain. Still worthy of monitoring. Will check back again this evening if consensus modeling is favoring something more than ordinary for late November. Not changing title down (HIGH impact) because it's Thanksgiving travel-shopping week and modeling may yet coalesce to a stormier impact pattern around here.