wdrag

Hi! Have seen the 18z EC... still not beefy enough for me to thread, so out of respect for the group varying views, I'll refrain from a thread this eve. IF modeling from 00z/27 NAM, RGEM, GFS continues as per 18z/26 and we see a bit beefier 00z EC for nearby ice, will go with it for Mon afternoon-night and wait on the Tuesday thread segment til Tue morning (if at all) since it should be more I84. However, this attached 3PM 18z/26 EC image tells me that a bit of snow is coming to NYC but it will probably melt on contact, but it's not 100% that there won't be 0.1-0.5" in parts of NYC/LI Mon afternoon. Not sure if anyone was aware that the past two events here since the 24th have had some decent bands of qpf and so I am not dismissing the heavier modeled NAM QPF. Meanwhile we snow up here for several hours in nw NJ/ne PA before it changes to sleet-freezing rain Monday evening,. Finally: EC/RGEM is growing the FGEN wet snow band late Tue. That one slightly warmer but I'm cautious about reaching the modeled temps. Interesting minor stuff that may interfere a bit with outdoor travel Mon and late Tue or for some who want the big snows... much ado about nothing. The problem: no guarantees that we'll see big snow this winter... Jan 2-3 is still so much up in the air about scenarios. Am going to make the most of the little stuff.

I respectfully disagree... GFS is coming around on both episodes as is the RGEM. No time right now for thread. Will look at more data and probably start it at 9P tonight. I think NYC will see a little sleet Monday evening while freezing rain is within 15 miles of the city. The ice probably won't be a hazard except untreated surfaces, which is where stepping outside unaware becomes a problem. Tuesday evening is looking a bit more potent along the NYS/PA border to portions of the I84 corridor and I think that FGEN has a good chance of working some surprises.

12z/26 EC doesn't show the eastward progression that I expect. It could be too conservative. Am waiting out a thread.

EC will be my tipping point to begin a thread for mixed wintry precip episode #1 Mon afternoon-early night. IF the soon to arrive EC is more bullish, will begin the thread. I have a number of graphics ready to go. As for late Tuesday-early Tuesday night: Indeed significant mid level FGEN. IFFFF this NAM portrayal (see two attached screen shots for 10PM Tuesday) is anywhere close, it's going to be an interesting 3-6 hr period of snow that could fall at an inch an hour rate for a short time across the I84 corridor. See FGEN as modeled by the colder than most all other models NAM. Something to keep in mind as the NAM has been locked onto this idea for several cycles. I can see the Global models being too far north. Still 44/29 here in Wantage at 1PM Sunday so am still a little worried model BL is forecast too cold on Monday but will monitor trends.

NAM has been trying this for a few cycles... a second batch of precip mostly snow-sleet later Tue. 12z cycle does interest me... presuming it's mid level FGEN Tuesday. Monday WAA looks period of snow or sleet to ice (widespread) to me from Allentown northeastward to NYC-LI Monday afternoon-eve with probably no glaze NYC-LI. Of interest to me is cooling BL temps on the 12z//26 NAM through most of the cycle. Where it is trying to warm NYC...a south BL wind in precip of 10 knots or less is not going to yield the forecast temp during the precip (it will end up cooler).

Just a couple of images from the 06z EC. IGNORE the ICE northern MA as that has already occurred. By the way, 12z HRRR has a period of sleet for NYC/LI Monday evening and its 2m temps tend to be constantly too warm in my estimation. So i very much like what was placed on the nw-ne suburbs thread at 730A. What i may do is start an OBS -NOWCAST thread for our area Monday morning if it still looks promising that sleet occurs for a few minutes NYC-LI. Note the 18z Monday picture of snow crabbing into out interior (06z/26 EC), and the total freezing rain expectation of the 06z/26 EC op model by daybreak Tuesday. Images courtesy Weather Models.com and the EC Centre.

Nothing a lock and I'm no long range expert-- but the NAEFS is spreading colder air east-southeastward across the northern part of the country in early January. Cold enough for wintry mixes. Jan 2-3 as previously noted is of interest for a potentially complex sizable multi wintry element event. I did not say major snowstorm but it seems like 1/2"+ of melted wintry qpf is possible for a part of our area. NO thread yet from myself, but will rereview modeling trends late today. Have a good day!

Not threading the Monday afternoon-Monday night ice since it looks mostly I84 corridor, and modeling might be a bit too cold, given this morning's warmer than modeled start (RGEM/NAM). Will re-review this evening.

Good Sunday morning everyone in our I84 corridor. It is Dec 26-the day after hopefully everyone appreciating that we started with a bit of a white Christmas before the afternoon-nighttime melting. The next overall MINOR event is slated for Monday (27th) afternoon-night, especially the Poconos, northwest NJ as mainly some ice. It may begin as a snow-sleet mix sometime midday Monday or afternoon, and degrade to icing at night. Untreated surfaces should become icy along and north of I-80-especially at night, though I'm a little worried that the models could be overdoing the cold air with resultant marginal temps for icing. It's still quite mild as of this writing. The mixed wintry precip should arrive in CT/MA late Monday or more likely Monday night but with timing uncertainty. I added a graphic that shows the ensemble chances of icing - favoring PA/nw NJ/se NYS. The blues are chances above 50%--please check the legend for the chance near your area of interest. Beyond next week--- modeling is repeatedly saying something sizable is coming to our I84 corridor Jan 2-3 and it may be wintry for a time, even down to Philly and Baltimore. May be a bit too early for a thread on Jan 2-3.

No thread from me on Mon-possibly Wed for wintry wx, til Sunday morning at the earliest.. Enjoy the Christmas Story. I like Ralphie. Walt

I hope I set the bar low enough for NYC Jan snow -= 1/2 of the normal. I think many on here would be thrilled.

And the final TWO day snow totals via CoCoRaHs obs. One graphic and one click for clarity. A white Christmas it was/is for most of the I84 corridor including extreme nw NJ elevations with 1/2" or greater amounts still on the ground this morning.

Does the December 2021 La Nina pattern edge to increasingly wintry scenarios here, with the - or neutral NAO largely persisting through January? The results of the LaNina pattern here: The first 24 days of December showed basically less than half of normal precipitation with temps 2-4F above normal and less than half of normal seasonal snow. Persistence (little change) would be good for heating bills and general travel - free of hazardous road conditions. Not so good for winter weather enthusiasts including skiing-skating-shoveling-plowing. Monthly normal snowfall is 8.8" in CP. Added some CPC graphics at 11A. the 1 month outlook made Dec 16, and the 1 and 2-3 week outlooks made 12/24.

Pattern looks like it's evolving a little more favorably for wintry mixes all of our area I78 northward. Not threading Monday-Tuesday (yet), but it's looking messy to me. Meanwhile, the NAEFS is showing signs of much below normal cold intruding through the northern Plains into the upper midwest by early January and ensemble snow depth is modeled to increase there. That allows colder boundary layer temps to be less distant. Already many models are/were MUCH too warm at the surface for yesterdays first measurable snow in NYC and for this mornings ice event north of I80. I think the same is ahead this coming week. Suggest following the colder surface temps of GGEM/RGEM and EC through Wednesday. My expectations below for early this coming week. I think we're looking at a period of snow Monday changing to periods of sleet or freezing rain Tuesday that may linger as mixed wintry precipitation into Wednesday. It's complex but I have little doubt that more hazardous wintry weather is coming early this coming week to at least portions of the I84 corridor and even down to Easton-Phillipsburg-Chester near I78 (PA/NJ). Long Island probably escapes the icy stuff (maybe not the period of snow Monday).

ICY in far nw NJ . 31F in Wantage.

Not threading the patchy icing that will occur in NNJ by sunrise and extensively further north in CT/se NYS. Trends regarding the modeling seem to be colder as we draw closer to these events. I am not closing to the door on developments the next 4 weeks. It seems like some changes are coming... and that blocking across the pole into northern Canada is going to become broad and fairly strong. Implications keep seasonable cold here for at least two weeks, if not longer and those seasonable temps can be cold enough for snow-timing-timing-timing. 29/25 as of this 928PM writing here in Wantage NJ... going to be difficult to avoid icing here early Christmas day.

Snow fall (incomplete CT) for event... all NYC airports measured snowfall. Even though a pocket of 2" nw NJ, the general larger amounts were in CT/MA. Click map for greater clarity.

Yes all airports first measurable with CP 0.2". That is done. Now we go for the first inch. Will reevaluate Christmas morning around 7 or 8A.

Add on as you wish: posted nw suburbs. I may not be able to post again til Christmas morning but will try to get a CoCoRahs summary of snowfall posted around 10A??? May or may not have time. From what I've seen, generally near an inch nw NJ and se NYS. Saw a 1.4" Rockaway NJ.

My only post today for our I84 corridor... what I expressed to my FB friends. Happy Christmas eve everyone, All of our I84 corridor has a fresh covering of snow on the ground (1" seems to be common- at least here in nw NJ) with the snow ending in CT by 9A, and Boston area by 11A (it may not snow along the NH border of ne Massachusetts). So where do we go from here? Little brief icing's or mixed wintry events for the I84 corridor the rest of December, but we may see somewhat larger snows in the first of half of Jan????? Anything outlooked wintry beyond a few days is subject to great error in this pattern. Midnight tonight to 10A Christmas Day: A very brief period of ice is possible for the highest terrain of the Poconos-Catskills (above 1500 feet) before it turns to rain by dawn; while northern CT and MA should see a period of general light ice after 4A Christmas before it too changes to rain by 10A Christmas Day. The National Weather Service already has advisories posted in CT/MA northward. Follow updated forecasts from favorite sources and don't forget to leave some fuel for the reindeer. 611A/24

Wantage 1.0" 25F. Beautiful morning. CP had to measure had 1/4S+ and .03 melted with a temp 31-32. KNYC 240951Z AUTO VRB04KT 8SM OVC055 M01/M03 A3012 RMK AO2 SNE0852 SLP192 P0000 T10061028 KNYC 240851Z AUTO 00000KT 6SM -SN BR SCT011 BKN049 OVC075 M01/M03 A3014 RMK AO2 SLP198 P0003 60003 T10111028 58014 KNYC 240847Z AUTO 15004KT 4SM -SN BR FEW011 BKN045 OVC075 M01/M03 A3014 RMK AO2 P0003 KNYC 240834Z AUTO VRB04KT 2SM -SN BR FEW009 OVC031 M01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 P0003 T10111028 KNYC 240832Z AUTO VRB03KT 1 3/4SM -SN BR OVC029 M01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 P0003 T10111028 KNYC 240823Z AUTO VRB04KT 1/2SM -SN FZFG FEW008 OVC015 M01/M03 A3015 RMK AO2 P0003 T10111028 KNYC 240807Z AUTO VRB03KT 1/2SM SN FZFG VV014 M01/M03 A3017 RMK AO2 P0002 T10111033 KNYC 240758Z AUTO VRB05KT 1/4SM +SN VV018 M01/M04 A3018 RMK AO2 P0001 T10061044 KNYC 240751Z AUTO 16006KT 1 1/2SM -SN OVC027 01/M06 A3018 RMK AO2 VIS 1/2V5 SNB47 SLP214 P0000 T00061056 KNYC 240651Z AUTO 13003KT 10SM SCT065 OVC085 02/M08 A3018 RMK AO2 SLP213 T00171083

Wantage NJ at 230A Dec 24 0.3" snowfall and snowing at a pretty good clip. 25/23 light ne wind. It is beautiful. Everything covered nicely.

26/18 here in Wantage and generally overcast with a very light north wind. 00z HRRR has this as a 1A-8A event for most of our area and now is colder with measurable snow to NYC/noethern Li. We shall know more in the morning. Seemingly no big deal most of the time, but this winter, if it measures NYC, that will be a relatively big deal for 12/24 along with slippery conditions on all untreated surfaces along and north of I80. This may be my last post for much of the night.

Thanks .. looks like it's coming. Let see the surprises. I'll try to be up for some of this.

Choose your model and since since the NAM through the 06z/23 cycle was dry in NYC, there is no guarantee this thread will be correct for NYC. I'm putting my money on the 06z/23 EC, HRRR, RGEM and allowing for a chance of 0.2" measurable snowfall in NYC early Friday morning. Temps I think will be down to 32F in NYC in a period of snow in the 2-4AM time frame, and then a question if it sticks, will it still be on the snow board at 7AM-12z/24 OBS time. So, if the HRRR/RGEM/EC/GFS don't shift the southern edge north during today's cycles, I am expecting a dusting up to an inch I78 region northward inclusive of northern LI and NYC, while the jackpot, 1-3" if you will, should lie further north from the Catskills through CT. Blame a warm frontal wave (passage of an area of pressure falls on the warm front to our south), ahead of the stronger low pressure heading for our area on Christmas. Ensembles are not enthusiastic for an inch of snow except well north of I84, so we need to keep than in mind as well. Adjusted the title at 609PM to add OBS and NOWCAST