wdrag

https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/snowbands/view.php The first two are from here, using .05 and .10 and you can see the members piling up. Scroll the time from start to finish and you see the evolution. I snapshotted this I can conference call this, though I have a sick grandchild so need to watch that situation. Time snapshot 08z-09z/17. http://moe.met.fsu.edu/banding/. That's for the last two graphics 900-500 Fgen and 800-600 Fgen. Nam is my favorite...well defined and the lift is in advance of the red and black intense FGEN signal, downwind trajectory, I closed with the HREF max axis forecast. Am sure that had something to do with the PHI initial;l warning, Like the snow depth change graphics as a minimum amount, these are all worth checking-incorporating.

The answer is yes. I’ll try to demonstrate with yesterday’s 12z. Guidance but w grand kids now. Probably 9pm tonight. It’s not exact bu I think we can do this within 60 mo either side in a 12-24 lead time. Demo later.

Wantage NJ (this part) 2.1 so far at 930A.

Think you're right. Even the big warmup near March 1 has possibilities.

Wantage NJ (this part) 1.8" so far at 7A with ongoing light small flake snow. 25F No compacting. Beautiful here too.

Started a thread at 5A/17. All yours.

Different than the refresher powdery event of Sat Feb 17, and this past Tuesdays Feb 13 wetter snowstorm, it still has possibilities for adding to our winter snow totals with modeled "potential" for half a foot or more for the I84 corridor inclusive of the Poconos-extreme nw NJ interior sections se NYS-CT. Possibilities even exist for an inch or four down to I95 and NYC though for now, odds are less. This could be one warmer more rainy event the 22nd and then a following rapidly intensifying coastal storm Fri-Sat the 23rd-24th. As generally usual higher terrain-inland best chance for snow. A strong short wave in the eastern Pacific this weekend will move through the southwest USA early this coming week and probably be ingested into a series of northern stream Canadian short eaves that dive southeast into Midwest and form a sharp amplifying trough over the northeast USA by next weekend. Details tbd. This probably will be of NYC subforum interest for some of us the next few days as winter potential refuses to go away. Added 10 to 1 SLR, 24 hour 00z/17 global ensembles and the NWS 04z/17 very low chance 3+" snow D6-7, to look back upon when whatever transpires. Title tightening up and downgrade update at 537AM/20. Verification attached for a failed event- useless thread. Numerous traces of sleet -snow-rain mix I84 into NNJ 3P/22-9A/23 but modeled short waves remained separate with one tracking across se Canada and the other actually trailed and dropped down through the Carolines. Was over early per the poster comments.

Wantage NJ (this part): 0.8" at 315A

Won't start a thread til sometime tomorrow, pending all 3 global ensembles still I84 or coastal snow event (DC-BOS) around 2/23. Plenty of uncertainty and for now want a couple cycles similar and continued ever more digging so that we have a pretty substantial neg tilt 5H trough here. D5 ish would be the big model shift that would deflate our potential wintry weather.

At 535 PM, I'll update the title if needed (add advisory) and add the NWS regional snowfall graphic, grandchildren babysitting possibly delaying. Banding will occur: MOST of it south of I80 but a period of banding 1/2-1" hr possible I80-LI and north by 25 miles. Best SLR's (fluffy) continue just nw of I95 with NYC in the vicinity of 10 to 1. MPing should be active after 1030PM. Event OBS herein this thread. Back at 530PM.

IMPRESSIVE 12z HRRR... check the NAM and RDPS when they come in. I may adjust headline a bit at 230PM. For now though, refreshing snow cover coming.

I have no answer except that I did. consider warmth coast and that why I think inside I95. My take on all this, potential to separate a closed low at 500MB as this trough goes goes negative across PA/NJ infusing southern and multiple northern stream short waves. If that happens, rain changes to wet snow coast. A big IF and I'll leave it that that warmer replies on that occurrence will prevail, except for me as a forecaster, this closed low option at Mason Dixon line is on the table. When it's ensemble denied with few or no closed low options, I'll admit it.

2/22-24 continues on the table for me. For now, favored hazardous wintry is west of I95.

OBS for tomorrow mornings 1-2" will drop right in here. City streets melt for a few hours at the start and maybe the first 1-2 hours of snow on the CP snow board melts due to initially above freezing temps. Several self explanatory graphics added. Please click for clarity. Snow ratios NYC probably close to 10 to 1. Definitely higher ratios nw NJ/e central and ne PA-se NYS for whatever the qpf.

No March thread yet... but adding here since I dee March winter or nn winter possibilities being discussed. March is about good good timing. Looks possibly wetter than normal an∂ once we rid ourselves of excessive early March warmth?, then maybe one ore wet mow for NYC? the 2/15 CPC march outlook update is attached. btw..CPC proabilities continues slight chc heavy snow here near 2/24.

Corrected thread title date 18th to 17th at 828PM Thu the 15th. No other changes needed at this time. Max snowfall axis continues near the Mason Dixon line where watches and/or advisories are already posted for NJ/PA/MD. Some modeling have the max snowfall axis a little further north near I78. 18z/15 GFS op has increased snowfall ratio for LI 11 to 1 for early Saturday which if it verifies helps make a little more snow near LI. Presuming it snows in ne PA/nw NJ across e central PA SLR's per the 18z/15 GFS op are near 15 to 1! Just need the qpf.

I’ll correct the thread date from 18 to 17 late today. My error

One thing I should mention and not included in thread. Very unstable Sat afternoon in wake of the event with scattered snow showers.

Modeling keeps it short... progressive. No closing off aloft...

The final NOHRSC analysis of snowfall... click for clarity.

Here's another tease: CPC 2/22-24. I didn't post the wind risk they had also. Keep an open mind on what might happen in here before the big warmup transition.

I love these spells of winter. Noting that it helps hold the snow cover out here. Continues beautiful. Was driving a patient in an ambulance at 5A over High Point - somewhat slippery roads in flurries, blowing snow and gusty Winds 3gusting 0 MPH. So different (relative calm in Newton-Sussex) once you get in the valleys and you dont realize how rough it can be.

fwiw. Todays CP below normal temps broke a string of 22 consecutive days above normal.

I'm rooting it on... make this thing worthwhile. I'll check back briefly tomorrow and Friday mornings.

For what its worth, I tried to take into account member requests but kept this new thread relatively simple at this point adding SREF, CMCE, EPS, GEFS, NBM and a singular sample of projected SLR for refresher thread. My confidence is shaped by the ensembles and so I too am conservative. fwiw... I think a good early posture is to be a little low on expectations and if modeling becomes more favorable for higher amounts. then go with it. Forecasters dont like to answer: what happened-especially from Emergency Managers and the Media. Reliability is so important - it develops followers and I think that's the goal for all of us, and most certainly the NWS which has to convey preparedness messages. An important aspect of this coming event, whatever it is... its at night, and below freezing so all untreated surfaces will accumulate and hopefully we see beautification Saturday morning even if its wimpy compared to our desires. Fingers crossed.