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wdrag

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Everything posted by wdrag

  1. wdrag
    Baseline on power outages at 6P. Let's see where this goes. Numerous 40-45kt gusts NJ coast now. Sea Girt in Monmouth county is the rough break point between 40F NJ coast and 32 just north. Wow!
  2. wdrag
    Just to answer a question that originated 2 hrs ago: Sounding can be 0 or below but if the saturated layer doesn't have any -8C above 2 or 3000 feet, ,hard to get snow in that sounding. In other words, we need ice nuclei or salt nuclei. Usually -8C is the theoretical warmest limit to produce snow via ice nuclei. Here's some depressing guidance for NYC... I hope the probabilistic is too low for 6,12,18. Also add probabilistic chance for .01 freezing rain. The 12z/ 16 HPC HREF you will like but my guess it's 3" too high in NJ/LI...just my guess. That last HPC HREF graphic is for 7P tonight to 7P tomorrow...has no snow prior to 7P. This is it for me for a bunch of hours.
  3. wdrag
    Wantage Nj 0.d6" small flake possibly ly 3/4 mi snow... 18.9F might be my last ob for quite a while.
  4. wdrag
    Hope it works out. I've lost a little situational awareness on the models. I'll leave it to everyone else to keep me informed.
  5. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 0.3" 19.F at 450P. 1 mi s-. Added the snow reports to the NWS. 3-5 PHL ILG area. 2" in our NJ forum.
  6. wdrag
    good use of web cams, I don't use them nearly enough. thanks for the reminder.
  7. wdrag
    HRRR and HRDPS look best at 21z with the CC. This run of the NAM not so hot.
  8. wdrag
    DIX Correlation Coefficient (CC) and of 418PM with mping obs.
  9. wdrag
    snow reports around PHL as of about 345P.
  10. wdrag
    Widespread mdt-heavy snow in PA now edging into PHL and central NJ. Here's a look at about 4PM.
  11. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 4sw: 0.1" new snow since it began 246P. Breezy at times. 19.9/15.8 small flake dense packed snow.
  12. wdrag
    Maybe around 5 or 6P, we'll repost the snow amount forecast (takes a while to get it all collaborated for a post).
  13. wdrag
    Philly 1-2" now per PHI FB page comments.
  14. wdrag
    not happening... not meant to be (at least I don't think so). Wind compaction, sleet, drifting...will be a difficult measure.
  15. wdrag
    On the HRRR accumulation graphic through 5AM, use the lower end of those value ranges. That's the safest, I should be a rough unsafe travel evening .
  16. wdrag
    Can everyone live with this??? I think it's realistic, with another 1-4" coming I80 LI after 5AM and 3-6" coming after 5A n of I80 in far nw NJ/ne PA and se NYS CT. We'll see if this comes down a bit in future cycles?
  17. wdrag
    I see Howell NJ had 0.2" accumulation at 1230P. Must be some other acscums in NJ now.
  18. wdrag
    I can see ~1"/hr I-95 sewd but not much more than that due to temp profiles near freezing. Bigger fluffier dendrites I think will be in the colder airmass, unless they get huge in NYC due to aggregation and a slug of bigger qpf heading in there. I definitely expect 2" hr for a few hours this eve e PA/nw NJ and of course advancing northward during the night,
  19. wdrag
    Snow measuring: CoCORAHS guidance is deepest in 24 hours from time it began for storm total (greater 24hrs, clean the board and add whatever hours beyond). However, not all offices do that. I know in Mt Holly, to limit snowmelt and or drifting problems, clean the board every 6 hours. That's what I'll be doing at 845PM tonight. Mat from NJ Climate Center may be commenting-adding on.
  20. wdrag
    Wantage NJ 740' MSL. flurries began 246P. 22/11. Been evaporating aloft past hour, just enough to raise the dew point 1F. Thats the lead dry air suppression.,
  21. wdrag
    It will .. meant it will snow hard.
  22. wdrag
    It will!
  23. wdrag
    Am monitoring a bit now. No further comment on modeling til NWS adjusts whatever they believe they need to. I think what you're all doing, tracking 3K NAM vs HRRR is probably the most important on short range performance.
  24. wdrag
    Have seen 12z/16 EC..enough to keep me thinking ice and packed snow LI/NYC sometime later tonight but it goes back to all snow by 5 or 6AM i think and snows another inch or possibly 2 in the city 7A-9A. I could see snow amounts capping 8-12" inland I-78 I to I195 due to sleet. Also think 1 hr flash freeze (8F temp drop self defined for parts of NYC Monmouth County when the wind shifts to n around 5or 6A 33-25). IF that happens, bad news for bridges and rails. Again, FOLLOW NWS. This is just something the models have been trying to hint at for a number of cycles. One other thing: EC does not have thunder. But per multiple models I see qpf suppression in an area w of I95 and near I78. These things happen in big storms and NOT predictable yet where they will occur. Nothin here yet. 119P and off line til 2PM ish
  25. wdrag
    Hope you're right. Dry slot implied your depiction above which also tells me trouble. . NMM3K too amped? Don't know. NWS I think likes the 3K a lot. I don't have a feel but once the 0 layer more than 25 MB thick (~800 ft above freezing) gets modeled to within 20 miles of you and you don't have strong VV, and/or -8C ice nuclei either available or descending into the dry slot , it's trouble. Models are very good, but imperfect on placement. I'll favor the NAM 3k/HRRR but defer and hope you';re right about colder and I'm wrong. Right now, the zone of uncertainty needs to be briefed as such - clarity about range of impacts.
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