weathermedic

He’s at Fox Weather now

WABC TV in NYC updated their amounts

Aircraft recon scheduled for today for ingestion into the 00Z model suite

Latest OKX AFD explains it all Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New York NY 338 PM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Blizzard warnings are now in effect for the entire area except Orange and Putnam counties where a winter storm warning remains in effect. The warnings start at 1pm Sunday Snowfall amounts have been increased slightly && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) An intense coastal storm will bring heavy snowfall and strong winds from Sunday afternoon into Monday afternoon. Blizzard conditions are expected across much of the area with near-blizzard conditions across Orange and Putnam counties Sunday night into the first half of Monday. 2) Potential for widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding and dune erosion/overwashes Sunday night. Additional coastal flooding is possible on Monday. 3) Low pressure and a cold front will bring another chance for precipitation during mid next week. Temperatures rising into the 40s by the end of the week will allow for snow melt. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1... Major winter storm impacts the Tri-State Sunday into Monday. Model guidance has continued to converge on the evolution, track, and intensity of the system. Low pressure will quickly develop off along the North Carolina coast Sunday morning and rapidly intensify Sunday evening into Monday morning as it slowly lifts north-north east towards the 40N/70W bookmark. There have been some minor fluctuation within the guidance on the exact location of the low and whether it passes just inside, over, or just east of the benchmark. However, little change to the overall impacts would occur in these scenarios. Ensemble solutions that were passing much further offshore with a graze scenario are continuing to look less and less likely. Model guidance shows pressures rapidly falling Sunday night with the low deepening around 970 mb as it nears the benchmark. Some guidance even has it a few mb lower. The low occludes and gets captured by the upper low with deepening ending and the low beginning to level off as it lifts NE to off the Cape Monday night. Light snow, or a mix of rain and snow, may develop Sunday morning, but steadier snow should begin overspreading the area from south to north in the afternoon and evening. Surface temperatures initially will be above freezing so little to no impact from any snow expected through early afternoon. Once the precip intensity increases mid to late Sunday afternoon, accumulations should begin more efficiently on colder surfaces, and then roadways Sunday evening as temperatures drop below freezing. Since there will be little to no impact in the morning, the start time of the Blizzard Warnings and Winter Storm Warnings have been moved to 1pm Sunday. This may still be a bit early, but overall conditions will deteriorate as the evening approaches. The explosive development of the low pressure will aid in the expansion of snow well north and west of the low center. Bands of moderate to heavy snow will rotate from the southeast to the northwest during the evening into the overnight as the cyclone rapidly deepens. These bands of moderate to heavy snow will continue into Monday morning withing the comma head of the storm (typically to the N and W of the center of low pressure). These lingering bands will diminish as the low pulls away Monday afternoon. The system is now getting within the range of the high res guidance and we are beginning to see notable trends of an uptick in QPF. These changes may move around a bit in the next 24 hours, but overall the trend supports increasing snowfall totals from the previous forecast. Total snowfall ranges from 12-16 inches inland and S CT to around 15-20 inches closer to the coast. There is a reasonable worse case for around 2 ft+ of snow. The chance for these amounts may be closer to the coast/Long Island, but cannot entirely rule this out even inland if heavier bands shift further NW away from the low center. There are still several ECMWF-EPS ensemble members that are very likely skewing the overall distribution of the probabilistic snow. These members have started trending up with the latest 12z EPS, lending more confidence that the low end amounts are unlikely to be correct. Intense dynamics are expected with this storm including strong difluence and intense frontogenesis all lead to heavy banding potential and heavy snowfall rates Sunday night into Monday morning. The cold conveyor belt late Sunday night and Monday morning appears to sit right on top of the area which will help the bands remain in place for a while and generally snow themselves out as the storm starts departing. Snowfall rates increase Sunday evening, becoming 1-2" per hour with locally up to 3 inches per hour at times. Several major winter storms in recent history have produced large heavy snow bands in the deformation zone with rates locally as high as 4" per hour. This cannot be ruled out given the type of storm being depicted by the models. There is also a chance of a few lightning strikes in the heavier banding Sunday night into Monday morning. Have not included thunder in the forecast yet, but cannot ruled this potential out. Winds will also be quite strong with this storm. Model soundings show boundary layer winds along the coast 40-60kt with decent mixing. Coastal locations can expect to see gusts up 45 to 55 mph, possibly even stronger across far eastern LI and southeast CT up to 60 or 65 mph. Inland areas will be weaker, but could still see frequent gusts 35 to 45 mph. The highest winds will occur Sunday night into the first half of Monday. The blizzard warnings were expanded to higher confidence in considerable falling snow, strong winds, and poor visibility well away from the coast. Near-blizzard conditions are possible outside the blizzard warning. The snowfall character will start wet and then gradually become drier as the event matures Sunday night into Monday. Ratios likely average around 10:1 early on, possibly lower Sunday afternoon, before averaging around 11-13:1 overnight Sunday into Monday morning. .KEY MESSAGE 2... Strengthening E-NE winds Sunday into Sunday night could produce a surge of 2.5-3.5 ft, producing widespread moderate to locally major coastal flooding along the back bays of western Suffolk and srn Nassau, Peconic Bay, and western Long Island Sound, and widespread minor to locally moderate flooding in NY Harbor and Jamaica Bay, the lower Hudson River, and ern Long Island Sound. The main high tide cycle of concern is Sunday night. Areas of dune erosion are likely, with localized overwashes possible along the ocean beachfront Sunday night into Monday morning. Additional coastal flooding will likely linger into the Monday afternoon high tide cycle, with a strong northerly flow limiting impacts somewhat to minor/locally moderate categories. .KEY MESSAGE 3... There may be a few frontal systems that move across in a mostly zonal flow mid to late next week. Precip chances have come up a bit late in the week with mostly rain expected at this point. Temperatures Tuesday range from the upper 20s to low 30s. Temperatures then trend closer to normal the rest of the week. This will allow for snowmelt each day and with mostly sub- freezing temperatures at night into early morning, subsequent refreeze of snow melt.

Remember the NAM tends to overamp so maybe cut it down by 1/3

Winds will be insane according to HRRR

Jan 96 did that

It’s quite possible this will develop an eye like feature on Monday

Nick Gregory on channel 5 upped his totals to 10-14 for the city and Long Island

Maybe at JFK or LAG

Nick Gregory saying 8-12 for the city but also said if the trend continues he will have to increase amounts for the 10pm newscast

Fox Weather Channel going for 5-8 in NYC

He is saying 1-3 in NYC but can see it being bumped up to 3-6.

Bernie Rayno likes the Euro AI the best and says it's about a halfway point between the GFS and the regular Euro.

Let's not forget with temps expected to be in the 30s this will be more of a heavy/wet snow with ratios of 10:1 or slightly less.

I'm already being asked by co-workers "so how much snow are we getting this weekend" It must be out on social media

Picked up 1" on colder surfaces. Temp made it down to 30 at my station in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn

Big flakes here but melting on contact with everything except cars and existing snow piles

Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service New York NY 106 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 CTZ009>012-NJZ002-004-006-103>108-NYZ071>075-078>081-176>179-151800- Southern Fairfield-Southern New Haven-Southern Middlesex- Southern New London-Western Passaic-Eastern Passaic-Hudson- Western Bergen-Eastern Bergen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex- Western Union-Eastern Union-Southern Westchester- New York (Manhattan)-Bronx-Richmond (Staten Island)-Kings (Brooklyn)- Northwest Suffolk-Northeast Suffolk-Southwest Suffolk- Southeast Suffolk-Northern Queens-Northern Nassau-Southern Queens- Southern Nassau- 106 PM EST Sat Feb 14 2026 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southern Connecticut, northeast New Jersey and southeast New York. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. A low pressure system is expected to track a bit further north and will bring some minor snowfall accumulation to mainly southern portions of the region, likely impacting the Monday morning commute to some degree. However, if the trend further north continues then snowfall amounts could be more significant.

Down to 13 now at my station. Lost 4 degrees since 8am

Coldest in the NWS OKX reporting OBS: Scranton MOCLDY 2 -10 57 NW16G31 29.83R BLWGSNOWWCI -18

CP down to 17. Wind gusts in the 40+mph range at many of the city reporting locations as of 8am.

JFK site is working on WeatherTap if anyone has that

The snow cover is definitely helping keep the temperatures a few degrees colder

Upton's morning AFD Regarding the potential for a coastal storm for this upcoming weekend, if any impacts were to occur it appears that the timing would be late Saturday night and into Sunday, and possibly Sunday evening for some eastern sections. Most of the dynamic modeling continues to show the storm being the nearest of misses, or, with the NYC metro not experiencing any snow impacts. The longwave pattern does amplify, but the mean eastern trough also begins to progress east while amplifying. A good rule of thumb is whether the 500 mb vorticity maximum or the 850 mb low gets north / south of Cape Hatteras. Just about all the dynamic and AI modeling has the vort max / 500 mb low going just south of Cape Hatteras. Climatologically that is a miss with respect to big snow for our area. In some cases far eastern areas get brushed. Therefore, at this point in the modeling / forecast process the most likely scenario is the nearest of misses. However, some impacts cannot be completely ruled out, especially further east as there remains some room for the modeling to wobble slightly further west which would bring eastern portions of the region in play for some minor to moderate impacts. Some coastal impacts remain a possibility in terms of minor coastal flooding. Stay tuned to subsequent forecasts for any changes.