weathermedic

Great insight as usual Walt. NWS OKX AFD seems to be on the fence in issuing a wind advisory for Friday and does mention a slight chance of showers/flurries. I highlighted the passage to make it easier: SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Key Point * Friday winds gust to 40 to 45 mph, possibly higher, close to 50 mph at times. * Friday still very cold with high temperatures upper 30s to lower 40s. Max wind chills mostly in the lower 30s. The low in Quebec makes its way towards the Canadian Maritimes without much change in strength with its central low pressure on Friday. The pressure gradient during the day Friday between this low and high pressure well to the southwest becomes the most tight, indicating an even more gusty westerly flow. This will be conveyed through a deeper mixing layer and steeper lapse rates which are shown in the forecast model BUFKIT soundings. There is some indication also of some narrow sliver of elevated CAPE and with positive vorticity advection could have a few rain and/or snow showers for parts of the region. POPs are just slight chance for this. The core of the 850mb cold pool will be across the region so made some adjustments to NBM to account for this. Went higher than NBM for clouds and POPs as well as winds and lower than NBM for temperatures. NBM 90th percentile winds were used and even with these were manually adjusted up to better match up with forecast soundings from BUFKIT especially with deep vertical mixing. The current forecast has wind gust maxima of 40 to 45 mph, just below wind advisory criteria. Cannot rule out a few wind gusts to wind advisory thresholds, near 50 mph Friday. At this time, still too early and not high enough confidence to go with wind advisory for Friday but chances are slowly trending up. 06Z MAVs have trended slightly higher with sustained winds Friday afternoon for some sites compared to the 00Z MAVs. Would also like to see LAMP gusts indicate some mid to upper 30s for wind gusts to increase confidence in wind advisory for Friday. BUFKIT already indicating a few spots late afternoon into evening mix up to near 800mb with 45 kt at top of mixed layer. The 40kt wind gust potential in the HRRR fields has expanded comparing the 00Z HRRR run to the 06Z HRRR run. The wind gust potential with the 00Z run only indicated some areas of 35-40 kt wind gust potential within the region for Friday mainly in the easternmost part of LI Sound and now covers most of LI Sound and along more coastline. Forecast high temperatures Friday are mostly in the upper 30s to lower 40s with wind chills at most in the lower 30s for most locations.

From the NWS OKX AFD: SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... Key points * Winds of near 20 mph with gusts near 35 to 40 mph forecast for Thanksgiving. High temperatures Thanksgiving mainly low to mid 40s but wind chills stay in the 30s. * Winds of near 25 mph with gusts near 40 to 45 mph forecast for Friday. There is still some model indication of near 50 mph wind gusts being possible. High temperatures Friday mainly in the upper 30s to lower 40s with wind chills staying mostly in the 20s to lower 30s. The key points with the short term will be gusty winds and with the higher winds, cold temperatures as well as wind chills. No measurable precipitation is expected during the timeframe of Thanksgiving through Friday night. There could be a few light rain/snow showers with strong mid level vorticity maximum pushing across on Friday. A much colder airmass will be across the region during the short term.

.66 total at my station.

.29 in the bucket at my station

Some of the area airports still gusting to 40mph or higher on the NWS OBS page.

Was just about to comment on that. Nothing from NWS?

Nice write up on the wind potential from OFK AFD: NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ***Strong to High Winds Possible Tonight*** Deepening low pressure over the Great Lakes will track east today and pass to the north tonight, dragging a strong cold front through the area. Gusty SW winds will precede the front with the potential for gusts of 25 to 35 mph this afternoon, highest along the coast and east end of LI (40-50kt LLJ passing to the SE). A few showers will be possible along and ahead of the front this evening. CAMs show a line of convection approaching the Lower Hudson Valley around 8 pm (00Z), then dissipating as it works west to east across the area through around midnight. There is weak instability and an isolated thunderstorm is possible north and west of the NYC metro. SPC does have the Lower Hudson Valley and much of southern CT under a marginal risk, as an isolated thunderstorm could mix down some higher winds from aloft. However, the main concern is for a period of strong to possibly high post-frontal winds. The strongest winds look to be for about a 3- to 6-hour period following the cold frontal passage, from around midnight to daybreak. Latest 00Z soundings from NAM and GFS do show a period of 50-55kt winds at the top of the mixed layer during the strongest cold advection. At the same time, the nighttime hours are not as conducive to mixing due to the loss of daytime heating. NBM winds which are notoriously too weak in these situations have winds gusts below 45 mph, and even the NBM90 isn`t much higher. Neither of which support high wind warning criteria (sustained equal or greater than 40 mph and/or gusts equal or greater than 58 mph). In fact, the NBM probabilities are less than 10 percent for greater than 55 mph. Ever the HREF and global ensemble (GEFS,GEPS,and EPS) also have low probabilities. The highest probabilities are over the warmer water due to to the better mixing. Thus, have changed the high wind watch to a wind advisory for the Lower Hudson Valley, interior NE NJ, and interior SW CT. Elsewhere, the high wind watch remains in effect due to the maritime influence and warmer surface temperatures providing a deeper mixed layer. However, confidence is not high enough to go with a warning and there is time to get another look at some newer guidance before making a final decision. Either way, feel confident for gusts of 40 to 50 mph areawide.

2.77 inches at my station

Trees and power lines down along Hylan Blvd near Buffalo St on Staten Island.

Lots of people there utilize satellite for internet

NWS OKX Updated AFD: SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/... Key Messages: * A fast moving frontal system will bring a quick hitting band of moderate to heavy rain, isolated thunderstorms, and gusty winds late tonight into the Monday AM commute. * Isolated thunderstorms and/or a fine line of low topped convection are possible, bringing a low and localized potential for strong to damaging wind gusts or even a brief tornado. * South to southeast peak winds gusts of 30 to 40 mph are likely, particularly along southern and eastern coastal areas, bringing potential for scattered downed tree limbs and power lines * A minor urban and poor drainage flood threat exits as well. Models in good agreement with negatively tilting vigorous closed low approaching the region late tonight, and then pivoting through the area on Monday. At the surface, strong low pressure should continue to track NNE up towards Hudson Bay tonight, with its trailing cold front approaching the eastern US coast late this evening. Notable model trend over the last 24 hours of a slower and further NW development of secondary low pressure along the cold front late tonight into Monday AM, in response to the approaching closed upper low. This should keep the developing low well NW of the region early Monday morning, with trailing cold front crossing the region between 5 and 9am. Ahead of this, increasing cloud cover this evening, with a shot of moderate to heavy rain and breezy conditions late tonight into Monday morning ahead of approaching cold front and developing low pressure. This is in response to deep lift ahead of negatively tilting upper low in conjunction with advection of +2 std PWAT, marginally unstable, Atlantic airmass on the nose of a 45-50kt llj. In terms of winds, 15-25g30-40mph, with isolated gusts to 45 mph possible ahead of the front. Highest winds along the southern and eastern coasts. With S/SE wind direction and 40mph gust potential, scattered downed tree limbs and power lines are possible. In terms of rainfall, ensemble probabilities of 1" in 24 hours continue to run fairly meager 10-30 percent across interior. Deterministic models have backed down a bit with footprint of 1"+ rainfall amounts, particularly for western portions of the area, as slower and farther NW surface low development, slows intensification of WCB. Still, potential for a widespread 1/2 to 1 1/2", low prob of up to 2", mainly in a 3 hr period, particularly for interior S CT. WPC URRD continuing to indicate potential for a brief period of 1/2- 3/4"/hr, low prob 1" hr rainfall rates. See hydrology sections for possible impacts. Potential for some isolated thunderstorms, including a low topped convective fine line ahead of cold front, in the weakly unstable and strongly forced environment. Although a very low probability, cant rule out an isolated tstm bringing strong to damaging wind gust or even a rotating storm causing a brief weak tornado with a high shear/helicity and moist adiabatic low level environment. After collab with SPC and neighboring offices, marginal risk has been expanded into the local area. Rain should come to an end fairly quickly from west to east in wake of cold front Monday AM, although scattered shower activity is possible Monday aft/eve as the upper low moves through, particularly interior. Breezy W/NW wind gusts Monday aft/early eve (15-25G30-40mph) in wake of closed low and secondary cold front. Winds subside with drying conds Monday Eve/Night.

Finished with 1.03 inches at my station

Latest update as of 2:45pm from the PSEG LI outage map is 180 outages affecting approx 2675 customers.

1 inch at my station so far here in Sheepshead Bay Brooklyn

.30 at my station so far

I’m in Garden City Nassau. Raining moderately. Winds not too bad.

Storm appears to be off the southern North Carolina coast (little swirl in the pic)

Per 9:18am OKX NWS AFD Update: NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... -- Changed Discussion -- Quick update to address near term trend, namely slower onset of rain and faster onset of winds.

LAG gusted to 40 mph last hour and JFK to 39 mph. Of note, pressures still rising so that Canadian HP is still pushing down a bit. As has been said on here in previous days, it's not the strength of the LP but the pressure gradient that's causing the winds.

Latest Sat afternoon/evening NWS briefing. Coastal flooding looks to be the major hazard with this system. Latest Briefing Oct 11 evening.pdf

NWS briefing seems to cover everything quite well LatestBriefing.pdf

1.39 so far at my station

Was this supposed to happen? lol

Heavy rain now where I’m at on Staten Island

.18 at my station