bluewave

These brief windows in recent years have favored the Great Lakes with the record lake warmth and the dominant northern branch of the Pacific Jet.

Thursday looks like a potentially impressive wind and snow squall day. Near record surface to 700mb lapse rates for early December. Could see some gusts over 50mph with scattered snow squalls. The record warm lakes are really going to modify the air mass below 850mb. This is one of the larger temperature spreads between 850 mb and the surface we have see in early December. So the wind chills will be more impressive than the actual temperatures.

The RONI seems to work better with La Ninas since the WPAC warm pool enhances the La Niña effect. But it doesn’t work the greatest with a very strong El Niños like last winter. The record Niño 4s extending west of the Dateline served to enhance the El Niño effect of the ridge in Canada which was on par with super El Niño events. The much weaker Aleutian low and Eastern Trough than past very strong El Niño events may have been a better use of RONI. But even then the numerical value wasn’t that much of a help in describing the actual pattern.

That is correct in terms of the La Niña background pattern. The pattern from mid to late December is more a reflection of the record WPAC pool forcing. Not necessarily the weak La Niña SSTs which are still neutral.

Will be interesting to see if extended GEFS is correct and we can get the forcing east of the Dateline in January and have the warmer Maritime Continent influence begin to weaken by then.

Maybe some snow squalls can make it to the coast later this week with wind gusts over 50 mph due to the very steep low level lapse rates and tight gradient.

All we know is that we were able to get a brief +AAM influenced period between the record warmth this fall and warmer pattern beginning to emerge next week. So maybe we can get a few more of these going forward after December. Our next modeling clue may have to wait until later December into early January.

Do you have the EPS and GEFS AAM forecasts? The CFS hasn’t been very reliable. If we could indeed see another +AAM influenced interval then maybe we can see alternating patterns this winter at times.

After the briefly cooler start to December, the models are shifting back to warmer winter pattern which has been in place since 15-16. We can see the familiar Aleutian Ridge and -PNA trough in the West. This leads to a warmer Southeast Ridge pattern for us by mid to late December.

The +AAM influence will start to fade since it was just a brief pattern driver which emerged for a few weeks from late November into early December. Just like the models originally underestimated the event from back in mid-November when it wasn’t showing up. Now we can see they have been underestimating the return of the milder La Niña background pattern from last week. This also matches the December seasonal progression that I posted on yesterday in the NYC Metro forum. The WPAC warm pool continues to be a dominant force as we have seen since the 15-16 winter. So it’s difficult for us to get more than a week or two of cold at a time before the warmth returns. But it will be interesting to see if there will be some more +AAM intervals to at least push back against the milder La Niña pattern at times after December.

Yes, the physical evidence is that the 2nd half of December has been warming at a faster rate than the 1st half of December since 1981. So as a function of this warming NYC and other locations have made it to 55° or warmer every year between the 17th and 25th since 2011. This late month warm up has been very reliable even in years like 2017 that dropped into the single digits right after Christmas. It was also a feature in 2020 following the record 40”+ snowstorm in BGM mid-December before the record flood cutter and widespread 50s and 60s on Christmas. Many times the models haven’t forecast this warm up during the first week of December but have shifted warmer in later runs as we approached the 15th. So when models are showing a relaxation of the colder pattern during the 2nd week of December, chances are the following period up to the holidays will see at least 1 day reaching 55° or warmer at spots like NYC and EWR. NYC maximum temperature December 17th to 25th since 2011 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2023-12-25 62 0 2022-12-25 58 0 2021-12-25 60 0 2020-12-25 61 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 55 0 2016-12-25 58 0 2015-12-25 72 0 2014-12-25 62 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 56 0 2011-12-25 62 0 12-01 to 12-16 average temperature trend line NYC….1981…39.5°…..2023…41.3…..+1.8 12-17 to 12-31 average temperature trend line NYC….1981….34.7°….2023…39.6°….+4.9°

The heat island doesn’t have anything to do with it since it’s air mass related and not UHI related. The heat island effect has been constant in NYC for a long time. The outlying areas haven’t any any similarly cold Decembers since 2010 either.

Very unlikely that we see a December this year anywhere near 32° in NYC given the record warmth across North America and the globe this fall.

Yeah, we don’t get Decembers that cold anymore regardless of La Niña, neutral, or El Niño.

While I am not a fan of using the CFS model, its forecast 500mb pattern at that time looks more like -AAM.

The November warming with the record EPAC WWB back in December is fading as the Niña-like EWBs are returning. You can see the +AAM influence beginning to weaken after early December. The 500 mb pattern is starting resemble something more Niña-like. New run around the 10th showing weakening +AAM influence and taking on some Niña-like elements like higher heights near the East Coast and a more +WPO Older run stronger +AAM with deeper Eastern Trough and more -WPO Nino 3.4 shifting back to cold neutral from warm neutral

My guess is that the first week to 10 days of December may have the coldest departures we see this month. The extended EPS is already backing off the cold it was showing for the 9th through 16th. This has been typical December local climatology with the usual warm up as we approach the solstice and Christmas. New run closer to average December 9th through 16th Old run was colder Longer term December temperature trends cooler to start and warming up as we approach the solstice and holidays

The main difference was that 2010 stayed cold the whole month with no moderation.

December 2007 had frontloaded cold which moderated mid to late month with low 60s as we approached Christmas.

First time that December 1st dropped into the 20s in NYC since 2007. Data for December 1 - NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 2023-12-01 51 43 0.41 0.0 0 2022-12-01 43 35 0.00 0.0 0 2021-12-01 49 40 T 0.0 0 2020-12-01 62 37 T 0.0 0 2019-12-01 39 30 0.62 T 0 2018-12-01 46 36 0.05 0.0 0 2017-12-01 52 42 0.00 0.0 0 2016-12-01 54 42 0.07 0.0 0 2015-12-01 51 44 0.33 0.0 0 2014-12-01 65 42 0.09 0.0 0 2013-12-01 49 36 0.00 0.0 0 2012-12-01 41 36 0.00 0.0 0 2011-12-01 50 37 0.00 0.0 0 2010-12-01 60 40 1.20 0.0 0 2009-12-01 47 35 0.00 0.0 0 2008-12-01 55 43 0.11 0.0 0 2007-12-01 38 25 0.00 0.0 0

The reason the modeling has been jumping around so much last few weeks is that this was the most volatile November for 500mb height changes since 1985 due to all the competing influences.

Looks like a colder pattern for the first week of December with a trough in the East. But the fast Pacific flow and storm track through the Lakes is a continuation from recent winters. Moderation in temperatures week 2 as the Southeast Ridge returns.

Top 5 driest and warmest fall on record across the region.

That winter was one for the ages. The early signs of the extreme cold began to become evident near the end of August. The last time NYC saw the December 1-10 average dip below freezing was 2002. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1926-12-10 26.2 0 - 1886-12-10 26.2 0 3 1876-12-10 26.4 0 4 1989-12-10 28.5 0 - 1871-12-10 28.5 0 5 1880-12-10 28.7 0 6 1882-12-10 29.1 0 7 1910-12-10 29.2 0 8 1976-12-10 29.3 0 9 1890-12-10 30.0 0 - 1869-12-10 30.0 0 10 1904-12-10 30.1 0 11 2002-12-10 30.6 0 - 1875-12-10 30.6 0 12 1958-12-10 30.9 0 13 1917-12-10 31.0 0 14 1906-12-10 31.3 0 15 1964-12-10 31.8 0

Yeah, I grew during that much colder era. I can remember when NYC dipped into the single digits on 12-3-76. With the higher energy costs these days we are lucky we don’t get that kind of extended cold anymore.