bluewave

Finally our first 1.00”+ areawide soaking in a single event since July 23rd.

Numerous October record breaking low pressures across New England. It was only 2 years ago that several records were set.

Looks like the first sting jet damage reports coming in to our SW.

Gilgo Beach gusting to 46 mph now. https://mesowest.utah.edu/cgi-bin/droman/meso_base_dyn.cgi?stn=F3143&unit=0&timetype=LOCAL

Possible waterspouts south of Long Island now.

Very impressive super-res radar velocity images with the damaging winds moving up the Jersey Shore.

The Euro wind gust product is doing better than the other models. It had 60 mph gusts for that part of the Jersey Shore. https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/new-jersey/gusts-3h-mph/20191017-0000z.html

First downed tree report of the event.

Beach Haven, NJ has SE gusts to 44 mph now.

The 12z Euro also has a sting jet like feature crossing Long Island around midnight.

Record breaking jet streak in the early part of the storm development.

Yeah, you can see it showing up on the HRRR. Numerous 0Z EPS members had a closer in solution for the strongest low.

The GFS and HRRR are more bullish on the closer in low to the area becoming strongest. Be interesting to the the 12z Euro and 18z NAM.

And the Boxing Day blizzard December record lowest pressure on Cape Cod a few months later. https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/roth/SLPrecords.html

The low pressure record for Cape Cod is only 2 years old with storm in late October 2017. New low pressure records for October around the region were set in 2006, 2012, and 2017. Just goes to show how extreme our weather patterns have become.

The very slow Arctic sea ice extent gains continue. The NSIDC 5 day extent just fell below 2012 for a new mid-October record low of 5.118 million sq km. The previous record lowest extent value for October 15th was 5.240 million sq km.

The NAO has actually been negative much of the month so far. But the Niña-like Pacific has dominated the pattern.

It’s probably the GFS cold bias just overdoing things again. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2019/05/06/weather-service-says-its-upgraded-american-forecasting-model-is-about-ready-prime-time/ However, the memo noted that some cold bias remains in the model, which may still inflate snow amounts, mainly in forecasts three or more days into the future. “The cold bias has been substantially reduced, but it is still there,” Gross said. “You get a cold bias, you can still get too much snow. That’s what we’re working on now and figuring out what to do.”

Yeah, 94-95 and 97-98. This time the other factors such as ENSO and NPM are much different. So we are looking at yet another new SST configuration in the Indio-Pacific.

It will probably be a wait and see how this near record IOD and other factors set the table for the winter.

The last week of October will probably cool down if the weak convection near the dateline verifies. That would actually be a more Niño-like pattern for a change. Ventrice twitter freebie:

Super typhoon recurve special.

Looks like a stormy pattern for the 2nd half October. The mean trough position shifts to the MW/GL while the WAR flexes.

Updated for the first record breaking storm system to make headlines this October. 2019 Record Early Season Snows For Upper Rockies And Plains https://weather.com/storms/winter/news/2019-10-14-record-snowiest-start-season-october-northern-rockies-plains

It eventually merges with the low just to the west and loops NW into SE New England. The system is so convective, that the models are still struggling with where the best convective blobs and low pressure forms. This one may come right down to the wire.