bluewave

This is a continuation of the misalignment discussion. Niño-like ridge near Hudson Bay and Niña-like ridge NE of Hawaii. Almost a combination of the 97-98 and 11-12 patterns at 500 mb to close out January.

This looks like the first time since 2010 that the NYC January minimum temperature finishes warmer than December. Monthly Lowest Min Temperature for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Dec Jan Season 2019-2020 16 20 16 2018-2019 24 2 2 2017-2018 9 5 5 2016-2017 17 14 14 2015-2016 34 11 11 2014-2015 24 8 8 2013-2014 19 4 4 2012-2013 28 11 11 2011-2012 22 13 13 2010-2011 19 6 6 2009-2010 16 13 13

Historic event for that part of Canada. https://weather.gc.ca/warnings/weathersummaries_e.html#NL Weather summary for Newfoundland issued by Environment Canada at 3:00 p.m. NST Sunday 19 January 2020. Discussion. A powerful January storm brought intense winds and record-breaking snowfall to parts of Newfoundland on Friday into Friday night. A new all-time daily snowfall record was established at St. John's International Airport. New record: 76.2 cm (January 17, 2020). Previous daily record: 68.4 cm (April 5, 1999). Records began in 1942. The above total is applicable for the January 17 climatological day, which is a 24 hour period ending at 2:30 A.M. NST on January 18. An additional 2.0 cm was recorded after 2:30 A.M. The area of low pressure responsible for the snow and wind emerged from the northeastern United States early Thursday and began to rapidly intensify as it moved over the Gulf of Maine. The system deepened into a powerful storm as it tracked southeast of the Avalon Peninsula on Friday, before departing into the North Atlantic early Saturday. The storm battered the eastern half of the island with heavy snowfall, extremely high winds and damaging coastal storm surge. The following is a summary of information received by Environment and Climate Change Canada as of 2:30 P.M. NST Sunday. Total snowfall (in centimetres): Mount Pearl: 93 Paradise: 91 St. John's East: 82 St. John's International Airport: 78 Mount Carmel: 61 Lethbridge: 48 Gander International Airport: 35 Gander West: 35 St. Lawrence: 31 Grand Falls-Windsor: 10 Maximum wind gusts (in kilometres per hour): Green Island, Fortune Bay: 171 Bonavista: 164 Grates Cove: 156 Heart's Delight-Islington: 156 Cape Pine: 146 Green Island, Trinity Bay: 145 Twillingate: 140 St. John's - Doheney Place: 134 St. John's - East White Hills: 132 St-Pierre: 130 St. John's - Dockyard: 129 Pass Island: 126 Allan's Island: 116 Holyrood: 114 Bishop's Cove: 113 Ramea: 109 St. Lawrence: 106 Burgeo: 105 St. John's West: 105 Deer Park: 101 North Harbour: 101 Gander: 97 At St. John's International Airport the official wind sensor malfunctioned during the storm. Reported winds were estimated to be between 65 and 85 knots (120 to 157 km/h). However, it will likely not be possible to provide a verified maximum gust. The wind sensor at Gander International Airport also briefly malfunctioned. The highest gust at the nearby Gander climate station was measured as reaching 97 km/h. The following area set a daily minimum temperature record on January 18, 2020: Winterland Area (Winterland Branch Hill) New record of -17.9 Old record of -17.8 set in 2001 Records in this area have been kept since 1970 Note: the temperature record reported here has been derived from a selection of historical stations in this geographic area that were active during the period of record. Please note that this summary may contain preliminary or unofficial information and does not constitute a complete or final report. End/NLWO

Yeah, we need extreme -EPO or -NAO blocking to get a colder than average winter here. Otherwise, the default pattern has been warmer than normal winters. We got the record -NAO blocking in 09-10 and 10-11. This was followed by the record -EPO blocking in 13-14 and 14-15. NYC DJF temperature departures 19-20.....+3.9....through 1-19 18-19.....+1.2 17-18....+1.1 16-17....+4.2....6th warmest 15-16....+5.9....2nd warmest 14-15....-3.7 13-14....-2.2 12-13...+1.2 11-12...+5.4....3rd warmest 10-11....-2.3 09-10....-1.3

Funny how March was the snowiest month of the season for 4 out of the 5 last years in NYC. This is more typical for the Rockies and Plains than NYC. Will February be able to score a victory over March this year? Maybe the extra day in February this year can grab some snow away from what would have normally been March 1st. Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 M M M 4.8

Thanks. The good news is we still never had a season that was a complete shoutout. Even in the seasons with the most challenging patterns, we have always found a way to get at least some snow. You wonder how bad the pattern would have to be for NYC to finish with just a T or 0. I think Philly came close in 72-73 with a T. But NYC always had at least some accumulation.

While all the models struggled with the EPO forecast, at least the Euro and EPS were closer to reality. Always be weary of long range model forecasts that go against the seasonal background state. That’s why there’s no harm in waiting for an actual pattern change to show up in the short term.

1.8” of snow out of 0.65 LE here in SW Suffolk. Just some patches of snow left on the colder surfaces following the rain and temperature reaching 40 degrees.

We are currently in the top 5 for warmest January monthly minimum temperatures around the area. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1937 25 0 2 1990 24 0 - 1932 24 0 3 2002 21 0 - 1993 21 0 - 1953 21 0 4 2020 20 13 - 1949 20 0 5 2001 18 0 - 1913 18 0 - 1911 18 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 21 1 2 1953 18 0 3 1993 17 2 4 2020 16 13 - 2002 16 0 5 1960 15 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY - Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1990 21 0 2 2020 18 13 - 1993 18 0 3 2002 15 0 - 1998 15 0 4 1995 14 0 5 2016 13 0 - 2006 13 0

Up to 38 now at the Wantagh mesonet.

Very close to the Great South Bay.

Just changed over to rain in SW Suffolk and 33 degrees.

These light snow events before mixing have been the default pattern since last winter. Very 70’s to early 90’s like. You learn to appreciate any snow that you get.

1.8” and 33 degrees here in SW Suffolk.

33 now at Wantagh with the south wind gusting to 19 mph. Up 6 degrees in the last half hour. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=want

The wind shift just made it to Wantagh. The temperature rose from 27 to 30 in the last 15 minutes on the SE flow.

South Shore beaches up to 34 now at Giigo. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYBABYL18?cm_ven=localwx_pwsdash

JFK up to 32 now from 29 last hour on the SSE wind. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=Kjfk

Looks like the mix line currently just to the west of Philly.

Same here in SW Suffolk. Picked up a quick 0.7” of snow.

Quick .5 inch of snow here in SW Suffolk and 28.6 degrees.

Same here in SW Suffolk. Picked up a quick coating and 30 degrees.

Great post, Tom. Misalignment has been a common theme recently. Last winter we saw the the Niña-like warmth in the WPAC result in the uncoupled El Niño. So we had the Niña-like ridge axis stuck north of Hawaii. This year we have experienced a continuation of that persistent ridge axis north of Hawaii. Now we are getting the amplification of the ridge in SE Canada with the Niño-like +AAM spike. But a piece of that ridge north of Hawaii holds on into the 6-10 day forecast. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/csi-enso-case-missing-central-pacific-rainfall

Snowiest day on record for St. John’s.