bluewave

Newark reached a record high of 60 degrees today. This was the 4th time near the start of February since 2017 to go 60 or warmer. It was also the 2nd record high. Last year came within a degree of a record tie. 2/4 69 in 1991 61 in 2019 59 in 2020 2/5 69 in 1991 68 in 2019 57 in 1993 2/6 69 in 2008 59 in 1938 57 in 2005+ 2/7 60 in 2020 55 in 1990 54 in 2005 2/8 65 in 2017 63 in 1965 62 in 1933

I posted them the other day. The EPS has been the best scoring model after 5 days. While all models have a had a cold bias beyond 5 days, the GEFS has been much worse. http://www.frontierweather.com/verification.html

March 2018 was the last time that it happened for us.

Gusting to 63 mph at Islip.

Staten Island just gusted to 49 mph with the squall. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=stat

2” per hour rates in the cold sector.

60 degrees now on Staten Island. http://www.nysmesonet.org/mesonow#network=nysm&stid=stat

Winds increasing quickly now on the South Shore with Gilgo Beach gusting to 42 mph. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYBABYL18/table/2020-02-7/2020-02-7/daily

Warm front just came through here on the South Shore. 51 degrees and south winds gusting to 24 mph in Wantagh.

We continue to see the 240hr SE ridge correct stronger than the 360hr forecast.

The warm sector where the high winds will develop is already into Philly. They jumped 8 degrees from 48 to 56 in just 30 minutes. Winds are now gusting close to 40 mph with pressure at 982 mb. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/meteogram/link.shtml?choice=KPHL

This has to be one of the fastest Atlantic crossings for such an intense storm.

At least somebody is getting record snowfall.

The February record for the western half of CT was set just 10 years ago. At that time we were setting records for the -AO instead of the +AO now.

Parts of CT could challenge their all-time February record lowest pressure on Friday.

The Pacific Jet continues to set records.

Long Island could see higher gusts than that since it will be closer to the strongest LLJ near frontal passage. The warmer surface temperatures should really steepen the low level lapse rates for good mixing along and behind the cold front. Euro has highs in the low 60’s.

Areas around NYC are on track for their first sub 980 mb pressures since 10-29-17. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=18&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&sdate=2017%2F01%2F01&days=1000&var=mslp&dpi=100&_fmt=js

At least Philly can brag that they beat 72-73. Time Series Summary for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1 1973-04-30 T 0 2 2020-04-30 0.3 86 3 1998-04-30 0.8 0 4 1950-04-30 2.0 0 5 2012-04-30 4.0 0 - 2002-04-30 4.0 0 7 1931-04-30 4.1 0 8 1919-04-30 4.5 0 9 1951-04-30 4.6 0 10 1992-04-30 4.7 0

Really extreme pattern coming up for the North Atlantic and surrounding regions.

The 50.8 +13.3 December. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 1990-1991 39.1 0 8 1998-1999 38.6 0 9 1948-1949 38.5 0 10 1889-1890 38.4 0

NYC is currently the 10th warmest for 12-1 to 2-4. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 4 Missing Count 1 2016-02-04 43.0 0 2 2002-02-04 41.8 0 3 1932-02-04 41.6 0 4 2012-02-04 40.5 0 5 1950-02-04 40.0 0 6 2007-02-04 39.9 0 7 1933-02-04 39.6 0 8 1995-02-04 39.4 0 - 1913-02-04 39.4 0 9 1998-02-04 39.2 0 10 2020-02-04 39.1 0 - 1991-02-04 39.1 0