bluewave

^^^^^ The small area cold departures across the Northern Hemisphere were focused into Alaska and Greenland under this extreme pattern.

The historic December 2015 +13 departure marked a shift to this new regime. The cold and snowy 13-14 and 14-15 winters seem like they were from a whole different era. The main options since then have been warm and snowy or warm and less snowy.

This +EPO /+AO pattern looks stuck in place until further notice. Just a brief Arctic shot this weekend within a continuing warm pattern. Last March saw some improvement due to the big -EPO. But who knows this year with the way things have been going.

True. We have to go all the way back to 2008 for no accumulations between 1-20 and 2-10. At least we got the whiteout squall last winter during this period. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Jan 20 to Feb 10 Missing Count 2020-02-10 T 1 2019-02-10 0.4 0 2018-02-10 1.5 0 2017-02-10 10.4 0 2016-02-10 30.1 0 2015-02-10 19.8 0 2014-02-10 26.5 0 2013-02-10 13.7 0 2012-02-10 4.3 0 2011-02-10 25.8 0 2010-02-10 12.3 0 2009-02-10 7.3 0 2008-02-10 T 0

Only if you are north of 84 in a pattern like this.

We know that the El Niño trying to come on with a Niña-like background pattern hasn’t worked last 2 winters. So maybe a stronger La Niña or strong enough El Niño will be needed to change things up next year. But who really knows with all these extremes competing with each other.

They are coming so fast that it’s easy to lose track of them. Just a remarkably unfavorable MJO, +EPO, and +AO combination this winter.

It’s no exaggeration to say that this is off the chart.

These brief Arctic shots within a warmer pattern have become common in recent years. Figures that it originates in Alaska which has been one of the few Northern Hemisphere regions to see any extended cold this winter.

These are some of the fastest jet stream winds that we have seen over the North Atlantic.

Looks like this is currently the 10th highest reading.

NYC is currently in 7th place for warmest winter through February 8th at 39.2 degrees. A final average temperature of 38.4 or warmer qualifies for the DJF top 10. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Feb 8 Missing Count 1 2016-02-08 42.7 0 2 2002-02-08 41.5 0 - 1932-02-08 41.5 0 4 2012-02-08 40.4 0 5 1991-02-08 39.7 0 6 1950-02-08 39.4 0 7 2020-02-08 39.2 0 8 1933-02-08 39.1 0 9 1998-02-08 39.0 0 10 1999-02-08 38.9 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Season Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2001-2002 41.5 0 2 2015-2016 41.0 0 3 2011-2012 40.5 0 4 1931-1932 40.1 0 5 1997-1998 39.6 0 6 2016-2017 39.3 0 7 1990-1991 39.1 0 8 1998-1999 38.6 0 9 1948-1949 38.5 0 10 1889-1890 38.4 0

We have the typical snowfall distribution across the region for Great Lakes cutter and coastal hugger storm tracks. Northern New England is always favored for the heaviest snowfall with storm tracks like this. BTV to CAR have above normal snowfall to date. A zone of close to normal from BGM to ALB. Then below normal from PHI to BOS. Seasonal snowfall through February 8th .........Actual Snowfall.....Normal snowfall BTV....56.6...49.3 CAR...88.7...66.7 BGM..52.5...51.7 ALB...38.2....38.5 BOS...14.9....26.3 NYC.....4.8....14.7 ISP.......6.8.....14.5 PHI......0.3.....13.0

This was the 2nd warmest 1st week of February in Newark at +11.4. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Feb 1 to Feb 7 Missing Count 1 1991-02-07 45.2 0 2 2020-02-07 44.0 0 3 2006-02-07 43.4 0 4 2008-02-07 43.2 0 5 2012-02-07 42.0 0 6 2016-02-07 41.9 0 7 1973-02-07 40.6 0 8 1999-02-07 40.3 0 - 1990-02-07 40.3 0 9 1952-02-07 40.1 0 10 1997-02-07 39.4 0

Maybe NYC can drop below 20 for the first time since December. EPS has a quick Arctic high near 1040 MB. The northerly flow from Upstate NY doesn’t cross the warmer open Great Lakes. In any event, we quickly warm up a few days later.

While not as low, it was our lowest pressure since Sandy. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=18&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&sdate=2019%2F02%2F08&days=365&var=mslp&dpi=100&_fmt=js

Hopefully, the Great Lakes cutter and coastal hugger storm tracks take a break after the last 2 winters.

We knew this last winter while the FV3 was the parallel before it became operational. https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/ The government’s new weather forecast model has a slight problem: It predicts that outside temperatures will be a few degrees colder than what nature delivers. This “cold bias” means that local meteorologists are abandoning the National Weather Service in favor of forecasts produced by British and European weather agencies. For the past few weeks, the National Weather Service has been forecasting snowfall that ends up disappearing, according to Doug Kammerer, chief meteorologist at WRC-TV in Washington, DC. “It’s just not performing well,” Kammerer says. “It has continued to show us getting big-time snowstorms in this area, where the European model will not show it.”

These out of season severe outbreaks have become more common in recent years. https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2019-01-08-ohio-tornado-january https://weather.com/storms/tornado/news/2018-10-04-pennsylvania-record-october-tornado-outbreak https://www.nbcconnecticut.com/news/local/exceptional-tornado-outbreak-in-new-england/163724/ http://cms.met.psu.edu/sref/severe/2016/24Feb2016.pdf

No problem. The GEFS continues to correct warmer. Its cold bias has been a big factor this winter.

There has been some research that the IOD could possibly impact the NAO and AO. Maybe the record +IOD from November into December was in some way responsible. Some of our other extremely +AO +NAO events were preceded by strong MJO 2-3 forcing. It could be that the IO standing wave from November into mid-December played a role. But we’ll probably need a a study to confirm. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/10.1175/JCLI3577.1?mobileUi=0& The dominant pattern of atmospheric variability in the North Atlantic sector is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Since the 1970s the NAO has been well characterized by a trend toward its positive phase. Recent atmospheric general circulation model studies have linked this trend to a progressive warming of the Indian Ocean. Unfortunately, a clear mechanism responsible for the change of the NAO could not be given. This study provides further details of the NAO response to Indian Ocean sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies. This is done by conducting experiments with a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model (OAGCM). The authors develop a hypothesis of how the Indian Ocean impacts the NAO. By analyzing model simulations we found that the South Asian jet can act as a waveguide with circumglobal teleconnection in the Northern Hemisphere. The meridional wind pattern, associated with this circumglobal teleconnection, is connected with the North Atlantic Oscillation. A warming/cooling in the Indian Ocean, especially in the western Indian Ocean, produces anomalies in the South Asian jet. The waveguiding effect of the South Asian jet carries the perturbation into the North Atlantic sector and leads to a NAO-like response. The observed recent positive trend in the NAO has likely contributions from the observed warming in the Indian Ocean. Our analysis—confirmed by the observed trend in the western South Asian jet and the anomaly pattern of the 300-hPa winter meridional wind—indicates that the change of the NAO may be via the circumglobal pattern. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/full/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0502.1?mobileUi=0 The teleconnection patterns associated with phases 3 and 7 are also important for Atlantic blocking. In agreement with Lin et al. (2009) and Cassou (2008), 10–15 days after MJO phase 3 a positive NAO pattern develops over the Atlantic. We find that Atlantic blocking frequency is more than halved in association with the positive NAO pattern. In contrast, MJO phase 7 is followed by a negative NAO pattern, which coincides with a high-amplitude wavelike flow and an increase in blocking frequency. Atlantic blocking frequency is almost doubled following phase 7, reaching +16.5% relative to climatology. Approximately 14%–15% of all DJF Atlantic blocked days follow phase 7.

Newark reached a record high of 60 degrees today. This was the 4th time near the start of February since 2017 to go 60 or warmer. It was also the 2nd record high. Last year came within a degree of a record tie. 2/4 69 in 1991 61 in 2019 59 in 2020 2/5 69 in 1991 68 in 2019 57 in 1993 2/6 69 in 2008 59 in 1938 57 in 2005+ 2/7 60 in 2020 55 in 1990 54 in 2005 2/8 65 in 2017 63 in 1965 62 in 1933