bluewave

Found a local Wunderground site in Bayside that reported 7.65” in one hour. I am not familiar with this site. But the radar can underestimate the actual rainfall in these extreme events. Home weather stations can struggle to be accurate with so much rain falling in a short time. But it seems like from the flood reports over the hood of the car that it’s plausible 5.00”+fell in around an hour. https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KNYNEWYO1905/table/2025-07-31/2025-07-31/daily 04 PM 82.2 °F 74.5 °F 78 % NE 5.4 mph 7.6 mph 29.95 in 0.01 in 0.02 in w/m² 2:09 PM 80.7 °F 74.9 °F 83 % NE 6.4 mph 8.3 mph 29.95 in 0.15 in 0.16 in w/m² 2:14 PM 79.2 °F 75.1 °F 87 % ENE 6.6 mph 8.8 mph 29.95 in 0.63 in 0.64 in w/m² 2:19 PM 77.6 °F 74.8 °F 91 % East 11.5 mph 13.3 mph 29.95 in 1.15 in 1.16 in w/m² 2:24 PM 76.3 °F 74.1 °F 93 % East 12.5 mph 14.1 mph 29.95 in 1.79 in 1.80 in w/m² 2:29 PM 75.4 °F 73.6 °F 94 % ESE 14.7 mph 16.7 mph 29.95 in 2.58 in 2.59 in w/m² 2:34 PM 73.8 °F 72.3 °F 95 % East 15.4 mph 18.1 mph 29.95 in 3.23 in 3.24 in w/m² 2:39 PM 72.5 °F 71.0 °F 95 % ESE 7.9 mph 12.3 mph 29.96 in 4.08 in 4.09 in w/m² 2:44 PM 72.5 °F 71.0 °F 95 % ESE 5.9 mph 9.2 mph 29.96 in 4.29 in 4.30 in w/m² 2:49 PM 73.0 °F 71.8 °F 96 % ESE 9.3 mph 10.9 mph 29.97 in 5.06 in 5.07 in w/m² 2:54 PM 72.9 °F 71.7 °F 96 % ESE 9.8 mph 11.1 mph 29.97 in 6.52 in 6.53 in w/m² 2:59 PM 72.9 °F 71.8 °F 96 % ESE 9.4 mph 12.1 mph 29.97 in 7.44 in 7.49 in w/m² 3:04 PM 72.9 °F 72.0 °F 97 % East 8.8 mph 12.0 mph 29.97 in 7.60 in 7.65 in w/m²

Dangerous flash flooding being reported with that back building cell near Bayside.

Yeah, the 1970s were a wild decade living in Long Beach. First, I got flooded out of my basement apartment for a week in 1972 when TS Agnes came ashore with the very heavy rains. Then the December 1974 Nor’easter which flooded the streets with a tidal surge in front of my elementary school. 1976 featured Hurricane Belle in early August when the ocean met the bay in the West End. My friends lived on Gerogia Ave and the tidal surge pushed the ticket booth for the beach passes down the street. Then the record cold at the end of August with 50 around NYC and 30s to the north and west.That was the coldest winter that I ever experienced. It was so cold that I wasn’t able to get down to the local waterways to see how much ice there was. Then the January 1978 ice storm which was the worst on the South Shore until January 1994. This was followed by the surprise January 1978 15” snowstorm when heavy rains were forecast. Followed by the epic February 1978 blizzard and snow drifts that the LB city bus got stuck in. Next on the memorable events list was our coldest 2 week stretch in February 1979 and the PD 1 snowstorm. The only two major heatwaves in that record cold decade were late August 1973 and mid-July 1977. Outside those two short periods there really wasn’t much need to even turn on the AC much living in Long Beach. Just using a fan was enough most of the time.

Too bad we didn’t have the forum back in 1976. Can you imagine what the speculation of what the winter would have been like after the record cold in late August? It would have also been great to have social media with everyone posting photos. The amount of ice on the local waterways by late January 1977 was epic. But there aren’t that many photos still available. All I remember from that winter was how cold it was in the mornings waiting at the bus stop. Monthly Data for August 1976 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY WALDEN 1 ESE COOP 37 NY PORT JERVIS COOP 38 CT DANBURY COOP 38 NJ CANOE BROOK COOP 39 NY CARMEL COOP 39 CT WESTBROOK COOP 39 CT MOUNT CARMEL COOP 39 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 40 CT STAMFORD 5 N COOP 40 NY SCARSDALE COOP 40 CT MIDDLETOWN 4 W COOP 40 NJ PLAINFIELD COOP 41 CT NORWALK GAS PLANT COOP 41 NJ ESSEX FELLS SERVICE BLDG COOP 42 NY SUFFERN COOP 42 NY WEST POINT COOP 42 NY YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W COOP 42 NY WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 42 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 43 NY BEDFORD HILLS COOP 43 CT NEW HAVEN TWEED AP WBAN 43 CT GROTON COOP 43 NJ LITTLE FALLS COOP 44 NY MIDDLETOWN 2 NW COOP 44 NY NEW YORK BOTANICAL GARDEN COOP 45 NY PATCHOGUE 2 N COOP 45 CT NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT COOP 45 NY NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS COOP 46 NY DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY COOP 46 NY MINEOLA COOP 46 NY BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 46 CT NEW HAVEN COOP 47 NY SETAUKET STRONG COOP 47 NJ NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP WBAN 48 NJ MIDLAND PARK COOP 48 NJ JERSEY CITY COOP 50 NY NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 50 Monthly Data for August 1976 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. PA TOBYHANNA POCONO MOUNTAIN ARPT WBAN 34 PA BELTZVILLE DAM COOP 35 NJ INDIAN MILLS 2 W COOP 36 NJ NEWTON COOP 36 PA EAST STROUDSBURG COOP 37 NJ SUSSEX 1 NW COOP 37 NJ MORRIS PLAINS 1 W COOP 37 NJ FLEMINGTON 5 NNW COOP 38 NJ SOMERVILLE 4 NW COOP 38 PA PERKASIE COOP 39 PA PALMERTON COOP 39 NJ CHATSWORTH COOP 39 PA GEORGE SCHOOL COOP 39 Monthly Data for August 1976 for Burlington VT NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. NY LAKE PLACID 2 S COOP 27 NY RAY BROOK COOP 28 VT WOODSTOCK COOP 29 VT NORTHFIELD 3 SSE COOP 29 VT NORTHFIELD COOP 29 VT MOUNT MANSFIELD COOP 29 VT SUTTON 2NE COOP 29

The main issue for those areas in NJ with the steadily warming minimums has been insect damage. https://www.njweather.org/content/seasonal-trends-extreme-minimum-temperatures-six-new-jersey-locations

Dipping into the upper 30s periodically back then in July probably wasn’t that much of an issue for the growing season. But August lowest temperatures in the 30s at the Charolotteburg Reservior were a much more common occurrence. They haven’t dropped below 50° in August since 2017. Their last 30s in August was in 1986. Their earliest first freeze was on 8-25-40. 9-7-84 was their last freeze during the first week of September. So rural NJ used to have a much shorter growing season than it has now. The average first freeze was September 26th from 1895 to 1910. From 2010 to 2024 the average first freeze is on October 22nd.

Ben Noll posted some of the maps showing the record high dew points on X.

The 79° dew point at Philly is tied for the highest ever at 11am. Philadelphia PTSUNNY 89 79

This July was a continuation of the rural spots in NJ not dropping below 50°. Prior to the big increase of our summer temperatures in 2010, they would regularly have the monthly low temperature in the 40s. Before 1960 some spots would occasionally drop into the 30s. The lowest July temperatures have risen by around +10 since 1893 at spots like Charlotteburg Reservior, NJ.

Lowest SAL on record across the Atlantic this July by a wide margin. So as the tropical SSTs continue to warm and lower the difference the tropics and mid-latitudes, we could see another late bloomer type season like we have been getting in recent years. The overall ACE really isn’t that important if we get a few really intense late season hurricanes close in along the Gulf Coast like as has been the case over the last decade.

Tampa just set their highest heat index at 119°. SMQ reached 118° for the 1st time back in June. This July at SMQ was the highest average max dew point at 74.2°. This is similar to July at RDU. So the Mid-Atlantic dew points have shifted north into our area. JFK finished at the 2nd highest avg max dew point at 73.1° just behind the record of 74.1° in 2019.

The high temperature potential gets a little lower following each deluge. We were 103°-105° back in June. Then the record rains a few weeks ago. So this warm up only made it to 101° -103°. Maybe when the temps rebound again after the first week of August the max potential will only be 97° -100°. We’ll see how it goes.

Looks like our 2nd chance this summer for some part of the area going 5”+ with the record dew points and PWATS. limatologist49‬ ‪@climatologist49.bsky.social‬ · 9d Stations that have recorded at least 5" of precipitation in a day in 2025 through July 19th. Most of these are CoCoRaHS stations. 4

SE flow is cooler off Newark Bay and SW is warmer off the land there.

You can see how sensitive the Newark is to local sea breezes since it’s right on the water. Was 93° a little over an hour ago on a light SE breeze. But jumped up to 99° last few minutes on a SSW flow. Jul 30, 2:25 pm 99 65 33 102 SSW 6 10.00 FEW050 29.93 29.95 Jul 30, 2:20 pm 99 65 33 102 SW 8 10.00 FEW050 29.93 29.95 Jul 30, 2:15 pm 97 65 35 99 ENE 3 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 2:10 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 7 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 2:05 pm 97 65 35 99 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 2:00 pm 97 65 35 99 ESE 6 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 1:55 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 6 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 1:51 pm 96 63 34 98 S 7 10.00 FEW050 FEW150 BKN260 1014.60 29.94 29.96 97 87 Jul 30, 1:50 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 7 10.00 FEW050 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 1:45 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 6 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.94 29.96 Jul 30, 1:40 pm 97 63 33 98 S 8 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:35 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 8 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:30 pm 95 63 35 96 S 9 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:25 pm 97 63 33 98 S 7 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:20 pm 97 63 33 98 SSE 6 10.00 FEW050 FEW120 29.95 29.97 Jul 30, 1:15 pm 93 63 36 94 SE 7 10.00 FE

Yeah, the heat index tends to underestimate the heat compared to WBGT. https://perryweather.com/resources/heat-index-wet-bulb-globe-temp/ When it comes to measuring heat, not all conditions are created equal. The heat index only accounts for shady areas, giving a false sense of comfort, while the wet-bulb globe temperature (WBGT) is designed for areas exposed to the sun, offering a more accurate reflection of how the body actually experiences heat. The heat index ignores the brutal realities of direct sunlight, hot surfaces, and even physical exertion. Here’s why that’s a problem:

The max is currently around 5th-6th warmest for July. The min is in 1st place just ahead of 2010. The AVG is in 3rd place behind 2010. The heat index which takes into account the dew points set a new July record this month at 91.5° vs 90.0° in July 2010. So the drier heat back in July 2010 made it feel slightly cooler. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Max Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 89.0 0 2 2011 88.6 0 3 2022 86.9 0 4 1993 86.8 0 5 2019 86.7 0 - 1966 86.7 0 6 2025 86.6 2 7 2013 86.5 0 - 1999 86.5 0 8 2020 86.4 0 - 1983 86.4 0 9 1949 86.2 0 10 2002 86.1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Min Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2025 72.7 2 2 2010 72.5 0 3 2013 72.4 0 4 2020 72.2 0 5 2022 71.6 0 6 2015 71.5 0 7 2016 71.4 0 - 1995 71.4 0 8 2024 71.2 0 - 1955 71.2 0 9 1994 71.1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul AGV Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 80.7 0 2 2011 79.8 0 3 2025 79.6 2 4 2013 79.5 0 5 2022 79.3 0 - 2020 79.3 0 6 2019 78.8 0 7 1999 78.7 0 - 1993 78.7 0 8 2016 78.6 0 - 1983 78.6 0 - 1949 78.6 0 9 2015 78.4 0 - 2012 78.4 0 10 1994 78.1 0

The increasing dew points lead to the mimimums rising faster than the maximums at places like JFK. This has been the warmest July for the maximum average heat index and low temperature.The maximum average temperature at JFK has been lower this July than back in 2010 and 2011. But this July feels warmer due to the higher dew points than 2010.

For the urban areas it has been the lack of 50s during July which used to be more common. For the rural spots outside the UHI areas it has been a lack of July lows in the 40s which used to occur more regularly. Since the low temperatures have been steadily warming in both parts of the region.

New record 74.2° average July average max dew point at SMQ giving a record 96° heat index.

Yeah, we have been having a great discussion about this topic in the other part of the forum. https://www.science.org/content/article/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather https://news.wisc.edu/irrigated-farming-in-wisconsins-central-sands-cools-the-regions-climate/ https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/36/20/JCLI-D-22-0716.1.xml https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w https://news.ucar.edu/132872/1930s-dust-bowl-affected-extreme-heat-around-northern-hemisphere

This summer pattern is a continuation of warmer along the coasts and cooler in the middle which has dominated since 2018. So it’s no surprise that the record heat has been focused in the East and West. It’s actually a reverse of the Dust Bowl pattern which had the warmth focused in the middle of the CONUS. This is why the places from the Upper Midwest to Great Lakes haven’t seen a repeat of the the record heat they got back in 1936, 1988, and 1995.

That’s why ConEd installed the new network. They were probably noticing stronger cooling demand from those neighborhoods in Queens and wanted to get reliable temperatures there. Since the airports are located right on the water and there is a large area of urban neighborhoods that are located more in the interior of the city.

Those are professional thermometers that are shielded and aspirated. So they are getting the accurate temperatures for those urban areas. Low rise sprawl in Queens actually gets warmer than areas where skyscrapers cast shadows during the day. They did a recent study that it also adds more to UHI at night since it allows the ground level to absorb more heat than in places like Manhattan with more shade from the skyscrapers.

Those actual neighborhoods are the warmest in NYC. Corona got the compressional warming ahead of the sea breeze front yesterday. If the airports were located away from the water, then they would have been closer to the 102-103° range instead of topping out at 100°-101°. That 2° differential is what you would expect to see when further from the water like LGA. Newark didn’t really get into the compressional warming ahead of the sea breeze front yesterday like Queens did.