bluewave

These high dew points and record warm minimums go together. This was the 10th October record warm minimum or tie at Newark since 2014. There have also been numerous 2nd and 3rd place finishes. Newark Area, NJ Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2020-10-22DateHighest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/6 68 in 2017 67 in 1941 66 in 1959 10/7 70 in 2005 67 in 2018 66 in 2007+ 10/8 73 in 2017 66 in 2007 65 in 1990+ 10/9 72 in 2017 69 in 1990 68 in 1959 10/10 70 in 2018 66 in 2017 66 in 1990 10/11 69 in 1990 68 in 2018 63 in 2017+ 10/12 67 in 1990 64 in 1983 64 in 1969 10/13 70 in 1990 67 in 1983 63 in 1954 10/14 67 in 1990 65 in 1970 65 in 1954 10/15 69 in 2014 65 in 2017 64 in 1985 10/16 62 in 1960 60 in 2014 60 in 1992+ 10/17 63 in 1947 61 in 2013 60 in 2016 10/18 64 in 1947 63 in 1968 62 in 2016+ 10/19 64 in 2016 64 in 2012 63 in 2007+ 10/20 66 in 1984 60 in 2016 60 in 1994+ 10/21 62 in 1984 62 in 1979 61 in 2020 10/22 64 in 2020 64 in 1979 63 in 1984 10/23 64 in 2007 64 in 1979 62 in 1990+ 10/24 66 in 2017 63 in 1959 62 in 2001 10/25 62 in 1975 60 in 1971 58 in 1991 10/26 63 in 1971 62 in 2010 60 in 1946 10/27 63 in 1971 62 in 2010 61 in 1984 10/28 65 in 1971 63 in 1984 59 in 1953 10/29 61 in 2017 61 in 1984 61 in 1947 10/30 60 in 1946 58 in 2019 58 in 1935 10/31 62 in 2019 60 in 1989 59 in 1971+

Just like the summer with the warmest temperatures often missing to the north of NYC Metro. Chester, Chester Airport, CT. KSNC (NWS/FAA - OKX) 22 Oct 1:55 pm 77 66 69 S 8 10.00 CLR

Breaks of sun now in Suffolk slowing working to the west. http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/PSUGOES_PA2/loop30v.html

Starting the day with the low temperatures close to +20. We are right around record warm minimums for the date. Newark....currently 65°..avg....46°....+19....record min...64°...

Adding a cutoff to the mix just adds to potential model error later in the forecast period.

https://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/faq/#area_extent What is the difference between sea ice area and extent? Area and extent are different measures and give scientists slightly different information. Some organizations, including Cryosphere Today, report ice area; NSIDC primarily reports ice extent. Extent is always a larger number than area, and there are pros and cons associated with each method. A simplified way to think of extent versus area is to imagine a slice of swiss cheese. Extent would be a measure of the edges of the slice of cheese and all of the space inside it. Area would be the measure of where there is cheese only, not including the holes. That is why if you compare extent and area in the same time period, extent is always bigger. A more precise explanation of extent versus area gets more complicated. Extent defines a region as “ice-covered” or “not ice-covered.” For each satellite data cell, the cell is said to either have ice or to have no ice, based on a threshold. The most common threshold (and the one NSIDC uses) is 15 percent, meaning that if the data cell has greater than 15 percent ice concentration, the cell is considered ice covered; less than that and it is said to be ice free. Example: Let’s say you have three 25 kilometer (km) x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells covered by 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice. Two of the three cells would be considered “ice covered,” or 100% ice. Multiply the grid cell area by 100% sea ice and you would get a total extent of 1,250 square km (482 square miles). Area takes the percentages of sea ice within data cells and adds them up to report how much of the Arctic is covered by ice; area typically uses a threshold of 15%. So in the same example, with three 25 km x 25 km (16 miles x 16 miles) grid cells of 16% ice, 2% ice, and 90% ice, multiply the grid cell areas that are over the 15% threshold by the percent of sea ice in those grid cells, and add it up. You would have a total area of 662 square km (255.8 square miles). Scientists at NSIDC report extent because they are cautious about summertime values of ice concentration and area taken from satellite sensors. To the sensor, surface melt appears to be open water rather than water on top of sea ice. So, while reliable for measuring area most of the year, the microwave sensor is prone to underestimating the actual ice concentration and area when the surface is melting. To account for that potential inaccuracy, NSIDC scientists rely primarily on extent when analyzing melt-season conditions and reporting them to the public. That said, analyzing ice area is still quite valuable. Given the right circumstances, background knowledge, and scientific information on current conditions, it can provide an excellent sense of how much ice there really is “on the ground

The forecast details beyond 7 days may be lower skill than usual. It looks like the EPS is struggling with the wavelengths following the big Epsilon ET. So we’ll probably have to wait and see how the late October into early November forecast evolves. New run Old run

Temperatures are off to the races away from the marine layer. Wrightstown MOSUNNY 77 66 69 S7 Scranton SUNNY 75 59 57 S9 Hartford PTSUNNY 73 60 63 SW9

Temperatures around the area are starting out with minimums within a few degrees of the warmest daily minimums. These are the warmest low temperatures on this date since 2016. Newark Liberty DRZL/FOG 61 61 9 JFK.....low of 60 so far Newark Area, NJ Version: 15.4 (created 2020-07-31) Period of record: 1931 through 2019 10/21 62 in 1984 62 in 1979 58 in 2016 New York-Kennedy Airport Area, NY Version: 15.4 (created 2020-07-31) Period of record: 1948 through 2019 10/21 60 in 2016 60 in 1984 58 in 1979

Yeah, it was a sharp El Niño snowfall gradient favoring Central NJ. 86-87 BDR...22.1 ISP.....22.5 LGA....23.2 JFK....23.1 NYC...23.1 EWR...32.6 TTN...37.1

The 1980s was the only decade that NYC didn’t go over 30” in a single season. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/monthlyseasonalsnowfall.pdf Max snowfall season in NYC 2010s....61.9 2000s....49.3 1990s....75.6 1980s....27.2 1970s....50.7 1960s....54.7 1950s....44.7 1940s....63.9 1930s....52.0 1920s....60.4 1910s....50.7 1900s....53.2 1890s....55.9 1880s....44.6 1870s....60.2

The last few days set the new all-time extent anomaly record.

Yeah, 1988 was the last time NYC dropped below 32° in October. It was also the most recent time POU and MPO dropped under 20° in October. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1936 28 0 2 1976 29 0 - 1925 29 0 - 1887 29 0 - 1879 29 0 3 1940 30 0 - 1869 30 0 4 1988 31 0 - 1975 31 0 - 1974 31 0 - 1969 31 0 - 1871 31 0 Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1988 18 0 - 1974 18 0 - 1952 18 0 - 1936 18 0 2 1987 19 0 - 1985 19 0 - 1976 19 0 - 1972 19 0 - 1950 19 0 Time Series Summary for Mount Pocono Area, PA (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1917 12 0 2 1936 13 0 - 1907 13 0 3 1969 15 0 - 1939 15 0 - 1904 15 0 4 1988 16 1 - 1972 16 0 - 1933 16 0 - 1928 16 0 - 1916 16 0 - 1905 16 0

The 60s dew points returned right on schedule. Some spots may challenge their warmest daily minimums next few days. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 10/20/2020 0600 UTC DT /OCT 20 /OCT 21 /OCT 22 / HR 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 00 06 X/N 72 63 77 63 75 TMP 62 66 70 70 67 66 66 65 66 72 75 74 71 68 67 65 65 69 73 66 61 DPT 59 60 60 60 61 61 63 63 63 64 64 64 64 62 60 59 58 55 52 50 54 CLD OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK BK OV OV OV BK BK SC SC CL WDR 10 16 21 21 02 03 06 07 12 20 20 21 19 22 23 31 35 36 01 05 05 WSP 01 04 04 04 03 02 02 01 01 06 09 09 05 04 04 04 05 07 06 05 05 Newark Area, NJ Version: 15.4 (created 2020-07-31) Period of record: 1931 through 2019 10/21 62 in 1984 62 in 1979 58 in 2016 10/22 64 in 1979 63 in 1984 62 in 1970

At least for a La Niña October, that drought ridge along the West Coast is out of place.

The PDO isn’t following the La Niña playbook this fall. This was one of the biggest PDO increases during a La Niña in October. But as we have seen since the record North Pacific warming in 2013, these monthly values can really jump around a lot. Last winter we went from positive in December to negative during January and February. It all comes down to how the North Pacific ridge behaves.

Those are the new free maps. All we need now is for someone to generate free ECM MOS. https://www.weather.gov/media/mdl/Shafer-AMS-ext-abstract.pdf

Yeah, looks like this warmer WAR pattern should persist at least into the last week of October.

That area was in a perfect spot to take advantage of the strong block near Greenland this month. The strong WAR seems to have kept the TPV locked in along the west side of Hudson Bay. So a strong -NAO/-AO isn’t much of a help for us if the WAR is too amplified.

We are getting a late October version of our recent summer warm ups. Clouds, high dew points for this time of year, and onshore flow. Same old pattern with the big ridge parked near New England. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 10/19/2020 1200 UTC DT /OCT 19/OCT 20 /OCT 21 /OCT 22 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 58 74 63 76 64 TMP 64 64 61 60 60 60 61 68 72 71 68 67 66 65 66 71 74 73 70 67 67 DPT 49 51 52 53 55 57 59 61 61 61 62 62 63 64 64 64 64 64 64 63 62 CLD BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV OV BK BK OV OV BK WDR 14 15 14 13 11 11 15 19 22 23 10 04 06 07 14 19 20 19 19 21 29 WSP 05 06 04 03 02 01 03 04 05 05 03 02 02 02 03 05 08 08 06 04 03

2nd big snowfall October in a row for the Great Falls area. Time Series Summary for Great Falls Area, MT (ThreadEx) - Month of Oct Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Total Snowfall Missing Count 1 1925 18.5 0 2 2019 17.0 0 3 1975 16.6 0 4 1919 15.5 0 5 2020 14.2 13

It has been the only cooler than average part of the US since the Super El Niño in 2016.

Warm in the East and cold with record early snows in Montana this week. Very familiar La Niña background pattern in recent years. The SE Ridge or WAR continues to dominate. GEFS temperature departures for the next 7 days

The models have plenty of clouds and an S To SE flow this week. So that’s why they hold the highs in the 70s instead of 80s. Still a +10 or higher departure on the warmest days. Maybe somebody in Central Jersey can make a run on 80° with more sun and SSW flow than forecast. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 10/18/2020 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 MON 19| TUE 20| WED 21| THU 22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25|MON CLIMO N/X 51 67| 56 72| 61 73| 63 78| 63 75| 60 72| 54 66| 48 44 62

Pretty late in the season for a 588 DM ridge over our area this week.