bluewave

Our next freeze after this weekend is coming up around the middle of next week. Pretty impressive to see a piece of the TPV drop into Northern New England this late in the season.

Maybe we can sneak in a 70 degree reading on one of the warmer days. But it’s tough to get to reach 80 with the persistent -NAO pattern. We get the high over SE Canada with clouds, showers, and onshore flow on our milder days.

It’s tough to get an accumulation at the coast so late in the season. But 2014 was the 3rd latest measurable snowfall on record for us. The trough locked in over the Great Lakes from the winter through the summer that year. First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Difference 1986 04-23 (1986) 0.1 12-09 (1986) 0.9 229 1983 04-19 (1983) 4.1 11-25 (1983) 1.2 219 2014 04-16 (2014) 0.1 11-26 (2014) 1.4 223

A piece of the TPV actually drops as far south as Maine. It’s believable with such a strong -EPO/-NAO.

Looks like ISP tied the record low of 30 this morning. Several record lows to our west last few days. Very strong -EPO/-NAO pattern continues. 17 Apr 7:56 am 39 22 50 33 W 8 10.00 FEW250 30.20 1026.3 30.31 39 30 4/17 30 in 2005 30 in 1971 31 in 1966

Freeze potential tonight outside NYC. Looks like it will be a little later than usual since 2010. ISLIP KISP GFS MOS GUIDANCE 4/16/2020 1200 UTC DT /APR 16/APR 17 /APR 18 /APR 19 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 31 49 44 53 36 Frost/Freeze Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length Minimum 03-27 (2010) 10-13 (2012) 176 Mean 04-08 10-30 204 Maximum 04-25 (2015) 11-14 (2016) 224 2019 04-02 (2019) 26 11-04 (2019) 32 215 2018 04-11 (2018) 26 10-22 (2018) 32 193 2017 03-30 (2017) 32 11-10 (2017) 26 224 2016 04-10 (2016) 32 11-14 (2016) 32 217 2015 04-25 (2015) 32 10-19 (2015) 29 176 2014 04-16 (2014) 32 11-08 (2014) 31 205 2013 04-07 (2013) 31 10-26 (2013) 32 201 2012 04-06 (2012) 32 10-13 (2012) 32 189 2011 04-08 (2011) 32 10-31 (2011) 30 205 2010 03-27 (2010) 28 11-02 (2010) 30 219

70 degrees. So a degree warmer than the first half of April. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Annual 2020 70 62 80 69 M M M M M M M M 80

Their mid March-April seems to be a version of what the Midwest experienced in March 2012.

The wild card is how long the -NAO persists. The -NAO has suppressed the record heat to our south during recent springs. All-time April record heat has occurred around the GOM this month.

Yeah, this has been a very impressive -NAO/-EPO pattern for April. Maybe we can sneak in a stray 70 over the next 10 days. But we won’t see any 80 degree heat until this pattern relaxes.

There were also areas north of NYC that had HWW conditions. CWOP ...Dutchess County... Bannerman Island 66 1045 AM 4/13 WXFLOW Beacon 60 1020 AM 4/13 NYSM 1039 AM NON-TSTM WND GST 1 S MAMARONECK 40.92N 73.73W 04/13/2020 M60 MPH ANZ335 NY WXFLOW LARCHMONT HARBOR WXFLOW STATION...ELEVATION 40 FEET. CWOP ...Westchester County... Tappan Zee Light 14 68 1051 AM 4/13 WXFLOW Bridgeport Airport 61 1153 AM 4/13 ASOS

You have to remember that the the open spaces like airports and shorelines are better representations of the actual peak wind gusts than your local neighborhood Davis sensor. Notice how many reports of downed trees there were across the entire area that weren’t near airports or the shoreline. This is telling you that the peak winds in local neighborhoods were realized near the treetop level. So the trees we’re blocking many home sensors from measuring the actual neighborhood peak gusts.

The most reports of 60mph+ gusts in the OKX zones were over Suffolk. This is where the models had indicated than the strongest LLJ in our local area would occur. The 82 mph gust along the Jersey Shore was with the well defined gravity wave. ...SUFFOLK COUNTY... ORIENT 68 404 PM 4/13 TRAINED SPOTTER ORIENT 66 231 PM 4/13 CWOP STONY BROOK 63 319 PM 4/13 CWOP ISLIP AIRPORT 61 147 PM 4/13 ASOS ISLIP AIRPORT 61 147 PM 4/13 ASOS 1 S BROOKHAVEN 60 146 PM 4/13 MESONET 1 E BELLVIEW BEACH 60 149 PM 4/13 WXFLOW EATONS NECK 60 232 PM 4/13 WXFLOW STONY BROOK 58 243 PM 4/13 CWOP ORIENT 57 245 PM 4/13 CWOP GREAT SOUTH BAY 57 133 PM 4/13 WXFLOW WEST GILGO BEACH 56 131 PM 4/13 CWOP SINAI HARBOR 56 1218 PM 4/13 WXFLOW MECOX BAY 55 205 PM 4/13 WXFLOW BLUE POINT 55 346 PM 4/13 WXFLOW FISHERS ISLAND AIRPO 55 1255 PM 4/13 WXFLOW FARMINGDALE AIRPORT 55 200 PM 4/13 ASOS FIRE ISLAND CG 54 143 PM 4/13 WXFLOW SHIRLEY AIRPORT 54 155 PM 4/13 ASOS NAPEAGUE 53 309 PM 4/13 WXFLOW WESTHAMPTON AIRPORT 52 206 PM 4/13 ASOS WEST ISLIP 49 159 PM 4/13 CWOP EASTPORT 48 228 PM 4/13 CWOP WEST ISLIP 47 138 PM 4/13 TRAINED SPOTTER SOUTHOLD 47 305 PM 4/13 CWOP

So far the main impact on temperatures have been muted highs. This is the first April 1-13 at Newark not to reach 70 since 2009. Time Series Summary for Newark Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Apr 1 to Apr 13 Missing Count 2020-04-13 69 1 2019-04-13 80 0 2018-04-13 84 0 2017-04-13 84 0 2016-04-13 80 0 2015-04-13 71 0 2014-04-13 83 0 2013-04-13 85 0 2012-04-13 71 0 2011-04-13 87 0 2010-04-13 92 0 2009-04-13 68 0

These big spring -NAO drops have become common since 2012. +NAO winter followed by strong spring blocking when the sun returns to the Arctic.

You know it must be spring when the models correct stronger with the -EPO and -NAO. New run Old run

Models did a nice job with the 50 mph sustained winds at the coast.

Pretty good forecast. Peak gust on LI of 66 and 68 in Westchester so far. That 82 mph gust was with the gravity wave from Delaware into Ocean County NJ.

Looks like 82 mph is the maximum gust so far.

Numerous reports of downed trees with the wind gusts over 60 mph.

61 mph gust at Islip and 66 at Orient.

Gusting to 76 mph now just south of Long Island.

Portion of a roof blown off in Cape May.

Gusting to 74 mph in Ocean County.

Gusting to 68 mph in Westchester.