bluewave

Some of the long range climate models have the current megadrought out West expanding eastward to the Plains over this century. So if that projection is correct, then it would put quite a stress on US agriculture. A gradual desertification of the Plains would probably mean more frequent 100° days for our area in the summer. https://advances.sciencemag.org/content/1/1/e1400082

Yeah, the Dust Bowl was an early example of humans altering the Great Plains climate through land degradation. We had a big hand in the magnitude of the record heat. Now we are cooling the region through our farming practices. https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16676-w Here we show, using an atmospheric-only model, that anomalously warm North Atlantic SSTs enhance heatwave activity through an association with drier spring conditions resulting from weaker moisture transport. Model devegetation simulations, that represent the wide-spread exposure of bare soil in the 1930s, suggest human activity fueled stronger and more frequent heatwaves through greater evaporative drying in the warmer months. This study highlights the potential for the amplification of naturally occurring extreme events like droughts by vegetation feedbacks to create more extreme heatwaves in a warmer world. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2018/02/america-s-corn-belt-making-its-own-weather The Great Plains of the central United States—the Corn Belt—is one of the most fertile regions on Earth, producing more than 10 billion bushels of corn each year. It’s also home to some mysterious weather: Whereas the rest of the world has warmed, the region’s summer temperatures have dropped as much as a full degree Celsius, and rainfall has increased up to 35%, the largest spike anywhere in the world. The culprit, according to a new study, isn’t greenhouse gas emissions or sea surface temperature—it’s the corn itself. This is the first time anyone has examined regional climate change in the central United States by directly comparing the influence of greenhouse gas emissions to agriculture, says Nathan Mueller, an earth systems scientist at the University of California (UC), Irvine, who was not involved with this study. It’s important to understand how agricultural activity can have “surprisingly strong” impacts on climate change, he says.

There are always going to be sparks that can start wildfires. But with the historic dry conditions, they are growing to record proportions. That’s really the main problem.

Yeah, the warming and drying trend out West is pretty extreme.

https://www.nasa.gov/feature/langley/joint-nasa-noaa-study-finds-earths-energy-imbalance-has-doubled Researchers have found that Earth’s energy imbalance approximately doubled during the 14-year period from 2005 to 2019. Earth's climate is determined by a delicate balance between how much of the Sun's radiative energy is absorbed in the atmosphere and at the surface and how much thermal infrared radiation Earth emits to space. A positive energy imbalance means the Earth system is gaining energy, causing the planet to heat up. The doubling of the energy imbalance is the topic of a recent study, the results of which were published June 15 in Geophysical Research Letters. Scientists at NASA and NOAA compared data from two independent measurements. NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) suite of satellite sensors measure how much energy enters and leaves Earth's system. In addition, data from a global array of ocean floats, called Argo, enable an accurate estimate of the rate at which the world’s oceans are heating up. Since approximately 90 percent of the excess energy from an energy imbalance ends up in the ocean, the overall trends of incoming and outgoing radiation should broadly agree with changes in ocean heat content. "The two very independent ways of looking at changes in Earth's energy imbalance are in really, really good agreement, and they're both showing this very large trend, which gives us a lot of confidence that what we're seeing is a real phenomenon and not just an instrumental artifact, " said Norman Loeb, lead author for the study and principal investigator for CERES at NASA's Langley Research Center in Hampton, Virginia. "The trends we found were quite alarming in a sense." Increases in emissions of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide and methane due to human activity trap heat in the atmosphere, capturing outgoing radiation that would otherwise escape into space. The warming drives other changes, such as snow and ice melt, and increased water vapor and cloud changes that can further enhance the warming. Earth’s energy imbalance is the net effect of all these factors. In order to determine the primary factors driving the imbalance, the investigators used a method that looked at changes in clouds, water vapor, combined contributions from trace gases and the output of light from the Sun, surface albedo (the amount of light reflected by the Earth's surface), tiny atmospheric particles called aerosols, and changes in surface and atmospheric temperature distributions. The study finds that the doubling of the imbalance is partially the result an increase in greenhouse gases due to human activity, also known as anthropogenic forcing, along with increases in water vapor are trapping more outgoing longwave radiation, further contributing to Earth’s energy imbalance. Additionally, the related decrease in clouds and sea ice lead to more absorption of solar energy. The researchers also found that a flip of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) from a cool phase to a warm phase likely played a major role in the intensification of the energy imbalance. The PDO is a pattern of Pacific climate variability. Its fingerprint includes a massive wedge of water in the eastern Pacific that goes through cool and warm phases. This naturally occurring internal variability in the Earth system can have far-reaching effects on weather and climate. An intensely warm PDO phase that began around 2014 and continued until 2020 caused a widespread reduction in cloud coverage over the ocean and a corresponding increase in the absorption of solar radiation. "It's likely a mix of anthropogenic forcing and internal variability," said Loeb. "And over this period they're both causing warming, which leads to a fairly large change in Earth's energy imbalance. The magnitude of the increase is unprecedented." Loeb cautions that the study is only a snapshot relative to long-term climate change, and that it's not possible to predict with any certainty what the coming decades might look like for the balance of Earth's energy budget. The study does conclude, however, that unless the rate of heat uptake subsides, greater changes in climate than are already occurring should be expected. "The lengthening and highly complementary records from Argo and CERES have allowed us both to pin down Earth’s energy imbalance with increasing accuracy, and to study its variations and trends with increasing insight, as time goes on." said Gregory Johnson, co-author on the study and physical oceanographer at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory in Seattle, Washington. "Observing the magnitude and variations of this energy imbalance are vital to understanding Earth’s changing climate." Joe Atkinson NASA's Langley Research Center Last Updated: Jun 16, 2021 Editor: Joe Atkinson

Yeah, that was the first summer with such high dew points and heat indices.

Pretty extreme to see all-time record heat tied so early in the season.

1983 was our highest dew point summer until it was finally surpassed in 2018 and 2019.

While it was wet here in 1983, the source region for all the heat just to our west was dry.

JFK set its record for 95° days back in 2010 at 10. They also tied for most 100° days at 3. The rainfall pattern in JJA 2010 was wet in the West and Central US and dry in the East. So we needed the dry pattern with more westerly flow to set all those heat records. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 2010 10 0 2 1963 8 0 3 2002 7 0 - 1999 7 0 - 1983 7 0 4 2013 6 0 - 1949 6 0 5 2012 5 0 - 1966 5 0 - 1955 5 2 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Missing Count 1 2010 3 0 - 1966 3 0 2 2011 2 0 - 1993 2 0 - 1983 2 0 - 1948 2 198 3 2013 1 0 - 1999 1 0 - 1972 1 0 - 1963 1 0 - 1957 1 1

I hear many people mention the term alarmist in regard to climate change. But I see very little alarmism in terms of the actual global response to climate change. Complacency will probably turn out the biggest risk that we face.

Many people who have been leaving California relocated to around Boise, Idaho. That is one of the hottest property markets in the country right now. A bunch of Hurricane Maria refugees from Puerto Rico wound up in Buffalo. Past history Is full of examples of people migrating from the tropics to more temperate zones. But this will probably accelerate in coming decades. Is Idaho prepared for climate refugees from California? https://www.idahostatesman.com/opinion/readers-opinion/article237278474.html Wildfires in California are igniting more than chaparral and forest. They are firing up additional reasons Californians will seek safer, blackout-free homes in Idaho. An Oct. 28 San Francisco Chronicle article sounded an ominous alarm: “fires intensified fears California has become almost too dangerous to inhabit.” This is exceedingly bad news for Idaho. For our state to remain the place we love, Idahoans should be cheering for California to address its problems lest they soon become our own. We should acknowledge that the entire arid American West shares a common danger, and Idaho is not exempt.

The major trend over the years has been a migration of our population to places which have been subject to a record number of billion dollar weather and climate disasters. The West has been drying out with an record amount wild fire damages. The big population increase in Texas has been hammered by record flooding and hurricane damages with storms like Harvey. Florida has had a double whammy of sea level rise and billion dollar hurricane damages. So now their residents are seeing steep property insurance increases. The same goes for fire prone areas of the West. My guess is that the coming years will see a reverse migration away from these areas. Property insurance increases will price residents out of those markets. So they will look for areas of the country that don’t see as many billion dollar events. The future of population growth may be back to cooler parts fo the country. But such a change may take time since people love living in the Sun Belt.

Their water usage has actually been declining in recent years. So it shows you how historic this current drought is. If the Colorado Basin doesn’t see an increase in precipitation the next few years, then they will have to institute drastic cuts. It looks like the first level of cuts will begin by by later this summer. https://www.circleofblue.org/2020/world/remarkable-drop-in-colorado-river-water-use-a-sign-of-climate-adaptation/ Use of Colorado River water in the three states of the river’s lower basin fell to a 33-year low in 2019, amid growing awareness of the precarity of the region’s water supply in a drying and warming climate. Arizona, California, and Nevada combined to consume just over 6.5 million acre-feet last year, according to an annual audit from the Bureau of Reclamation, the federal agency that oversees the lower basin. That is about 1 million acre-feet less than the three states are entitled to use under a legal compact that divides the Colorado River’s waters. The last time water consumption from the river was that low was in 1986, the year after an enormous canal in Arizona opened that allowed the state to lay claim to its full Colorado River entitlement.

The Northeast is getting warmer and wetter while the Southwest is becoming warmer and drier.

Somebody out West may be able to finish the month at +10 or greater. Looks like the pattern tries to reshuffle a bit later in June. More of a WAR and Plains trough with ridging along the West Coast.

You knew that the ridge had to eventually pull back to the West with cooling from the Plains east. It’s just too difficult for the Upper Plains to run a +15 or higher monthly departure during the summer. That is more like what happed during some recent winter and early springs.

You can see how many summer top 10s there have been at JFK and other stations just since 2010. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 85.4 0 2 2016 83.8 0 - 2011 83.8 0 3 2015 83.3 0 4 2020 83.2 0 - 1971 83.2 0 5 1991 83.1 0 - 1983 83.1 0 - 1949 83.1 0 6 1966 83.0 0 7 2012 82.9 0 8 2008 82.8 0 9 2002 82.7 0 - 1999 82.7 0 10 2005 82.6 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 69.2 0 2 2010 68.9 0 3 1984 68.8 0 4 2015 68.7 0 5 2020 68.2 0 6 1983 68.1 0 7 2011 67.9 0 8 2013 67.7 0 - 2012 67.7 0 - 1981 67.7 0 9 2005 67.6 0 - 1995 67.6 0 10 1955 67.5 0 - 1952 67.5 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2010 77.1 0 2 2016 76.5 0 3 2015 76.0 0 4 2011 75.8 0 5 2020 75.7 0 6 1983 75.6 0 7 1984 75.4 0 8 2012 75.3 0 - 1991 75.3 0 9 1971 75.2 0 - 1949 75.2 0 10 2005 75.1 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 32 0 2 1983 26 0 3 2002 21 0 4 1971 18 0 - 1949 18 0 5 2005 17 0 - 1991 17 0 6 2012 16 0 - 1959 16 3 - 1955 16 2 7 2016 15 0 - 1995 15 0 - 1961 15 0 8 1999 14 0 - 1988 14 0 - 1966 14 0 - 1952 14 0 9 2011 13 0 - 1993 13 0 - 1984 13 0 - 1977 13 0 - 1970 13 0 - 1969 13 0 - 1963 13 0 10 2020 12 0 - 2015 12 0 - 2006 12 0 - 2003 12 0 - 1978 12 0 - 1968 12 0 - 1953 12 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Min Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 1 2016 55 0 2 2015 53 0 3 2010 51 0 4 2020 49 0 - 2018 49 0 5 2012 48 0 - 1983 48 0 6 1980 47 0 - 1971 47 0 7 1984 46 0 8 2013 44 0 - 1999 44 0 - 1955 44 2 9 1959 41 3 10 2005 40 0 - 1995 40 0 - 1981 40 0 - 1970 40 0 - 1949 40 0 Maximum 30-Day Mean Avg Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 81.3 2010-07-25 0 2 80.4 2011-08-02 0 3 80.3 1983-08-10 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 1966 104 0 2 2011 103 0 3 1999 102 0 - 1963 102 0 4 2010 101 0 - 1993 101 0 - 1957 101 1 - 1948 101 198 5 2013 100 0 - 1983 100 0 - 1972 100 0 Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2016 82 0 - 1999 82 0 2 1983 81 0 - 1980 81 0 - 1959 81 3 3 2019 80 0 - 2013 80 0 - 2010 80 0 - 2006 80 0 - 2002 80 0 - 2001 80 0 - 1993 80 0 - 1981 80 0 4 2020 79 0 - 2017 79 0 - 2015 79 0 - 2012 79 0 - 2011 79 0 - 1995 79 0 - 1978 79 0 Maximum 7-Day Mean Avg Temperature for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Missing Days 1 86.4 2013-07-21 0 2 86.4 2013-07-20 0 3 85.4 2013-07-22 0 4 85.1 2013-07-19 0 - 85.1 2006-08-04 0 - 85.1 1993-07-13 0 5 85.1 1983-07-19 0 6 84.9 1983-07-18 0 7 84.9 2006-08-05 0 8 84.8 1993-07-14 0 9 84.7 1981-07-13 0 10 84.4 2013-07-23 0 - 84.4 2011-07-24 0

Probably a first for weekend temperature volatility from late May into early June. CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 432 PM EDT SAT JUN 12 2021 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 12 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 71 1032 AM 97 2017 81 -10 88 CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 220 AM EDT SUN JUN 06 2021 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JUNE 5 2021... CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) YESTERDAY MAXIMUM 95R 415 PM 92 1932 78 17 82 CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 432 PM EDT SAT MAY 29 2021 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 29 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 52 259 PM 97 1987 76 -24 86 CLIMATE REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK, NY 434 PM EDT SAT MAY 22 2021 ................................... ...THE NEWARK NJ CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR MAY 22 2021... VALID TODAY AS OF 0400 PM LOCAL TIME. CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020 CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1893 TO 2021 WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL ................................................................... TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY MAXIMUM 96 109 PM 98 1992 74 22 77

We had shorter duration but memorable heat in 1966, 1980, and 1983. But those summer averages over 3 months lag behind our modern day summers. 1993 was an interesting case. It was really hot at EWR and NYC before the vegetation got out of control. But it wasn’t nearly as warm for JFK,LGA, and ISP. As for 90° day statistics, 2010 is in a class by itself at the top. With the record high dew points and onshore flow in recent years, a summer like 2020 ranked very high due to many days in the upper 80s and 90s. While LGA was the standout for 95°+ days, all local stations ranked near the top for summer average high, low, and average temperatures. Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 95 Missing Count 1 1955 14 0 2 2020 13 0 - 1999 13 0 3 2012 11 0 - 2010 11 0 - 1991 11 0 - 1953 11 0 4 1995 10 0

This June is roughly following a series of 10 day patterns. Our first 10 days featured record heat. The middle part of the month has the record heat pulling back to the West. So we see more of a trough and less heat through around the 20th. The EPS has a warmer ridge signal returning during the last 7 to 10 days of June. The main uncertainty for late June is how warm will it get. Will it approach the record levels of early June or be a less impressive warm up? June 1-9 EPS forecasts

Weekends since late May have been alternating between record heat and backdoor cold fronts. May 22-23 had record heat and May 29-30 featured record cold and wet. June 5-6 we were back to record heat. Now this weekend will feature clouds with breaks of sun and a cooler onshore flow. KEWR GFS MOS GUIDANCE 6/11/2021 1200 UTC DT /JUNE 11/JUNE 12 /JUNE 13 /JUNE 14 HR 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 03 06 09 12 15 18 21 00 06 12 N/X 59 74 61 78 66 TMP 68 69 65 63 61 60 63 69 72 71 68 66 64 63 65 69 74 76 73 68 69 DPT 47 49 52 52 52 53 54 54 55 56 56 56 56 56 57 58 60 60 61 62 62 CLD OV OV OV OV OV BK BK OV OV BK BK BK OV OV OV OV OV BK OV OV OV WDR 09 10 07 05 05 05 04 05 08 14 14 17 20 19 22 24 20 19 18 21 22 WSP 06 07 06 05 04 04 05 05 06 07 05 05 04 02 05 05 07 09 07 06 06

This was the warmest first 10 days of June on record at Newark. But the maximum temperature of 97° came in lower than the 99° in 1999 and 102 in 2011. So a continuation of the difficulty in reaching 100° in recent years. The 100° temperatures were located to our west where the most extreme drought conditions were located. The record heat and ridging will pull back to the West during mid-June intensifying the drought conditions there. While the drought locations and intensity is different from 1999 and 2011, those years both featured record heat in July for our area. Perhaps this means we can make a run on 100° in July. But we have seen how the maximum temperatures in early June were 2 to 5°lower than 1999 and 2011. So it will be interesting to see how July turns out. As for the tropics, the first potential for this year looks to be near the TX/LA Western Gulf region. This would follow the recent stuck pattern of cooler and wetter in that region undercutting the ridge across the north. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jun 1 to Jun 10 Maximum Temperature 1 2021-06-10 77.1 97 2 1999-06-10 76.0 99 3 2011-06-10 75.9 102

The record heat pulls back to the historic drought areas out West for mid-June.