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bluewave

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  1. bluewave
    The plots won’t load. The last time I checked it had high end moderate low end major for Freeport tomorrow morning. The other guidance is slightly lower at moderate. Will probably come down to how quickly the flow turns northerly. If the easterly flow holds on longer, maybe the slightly higher Stevens will verify.
  2. bluewave
    It’s typical for the heaviest snow in these set ups to occur right before it mixes.
  3. bluewave
    Starting to mix in Philly now.
  4. bluewave
    We usually get the heaviest snowfall rates just before it mixes.
  5. bluewave
    Steady light snow here in SW Suffolk with a dusting on the roofs and colder ground surfaces.
  6. bluewave
    Steady light snow has arrived here in SW Suffolk.
  7. bluewave
    The 12NAM has the famous wall of snow sig.
  8. bluewave
    Before I changed the title of the winter thread that I started back in October, it was about the MJO staying in 4-5 for October. I changed the title of the thread for a broader winter discussion. I actually deleted my first post which didn’t look like it may work out in November as not to get hopes up too high. It was about October La Niña forcing and seasonal snowfall. Cases focused near the Maritime Continent 4-5 usually had better snow outcomes than the IO phases back to 2000. I included the last 2 winters due to the strong Niña-like background state focusing the ridge north of Hawaii. But We have seen many Niño-like influences this month like the record NP warmth and the +AAM spike and strongest +PNA for a moderate La Niña in December. The MJO in October seemed to be hinting a better snowfall outcome this winter than the last two. Perhaps, the MJO in October can be a precursor to the amount of blocking in the winter during a La Niña even if many Niño-like features are present. There were so many conflicting features during October and November that it was really tough to know how everything would interact with each other until we got to December. This will be a first for such an extreme November to December AO reversal especially for a La Niña with record warmth in November. October 2020 forcing closer to snowier La Niña composite since 2000 Snowier outcomes Less snowy
  9. bluewave
    Yeah the NAM has a sneaky warm layer right near where the sleet -snow mix line occurs tonight. Pretty good SE LLJ around 800-850 mb. LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1012 22 -2.6 -3.9 91 1.3 -3.1 29 21 269.6 270.1 269.4 277.2 2.82 1 1000 119 -3.8 -4.6 94 0.8 -4.1 31 29 269.3 269.8 269.1 276.6 2.70 2 950 522 -5.8 -6.1 98 0.3 -5.9 47 49 271.3 271.7 270.1 278.2 2.54 3 900 947 -4.2 -4.5 98 0.3 -4.3 75 59 277.2 277.7 274.3 285.6 3.04 4 850 1402 -0.8 -1.2 97 0.5 -1.0 104 53 285.3 286.1 280.0 297.0 4.11 5 800 1888 0.4 -0.2 96 0.6 0.1 130 54 291.5 292.4 283.5 305.2 4.70 6 750 2404 -1.9 -2.1 98 0.2 -2.0 139 43 294.5 295.3 284.3 307.3 4.36 7 700 2951 -4.1 -4.1 100 0.0 -4.1 155 35 298.0 298.7 285.4 310.1 4.04
  10. bluewave
    I would probably rate this Euro forecast as one of the better ones in recent years. Most of the runs had the low tucking in around Cape May. It just looks like the ejection will be more ENE toward the BM instead of due east off Cape May.
  11. bluewave
    Probably 1-2” per hour this evening under the best banding.
  12. bluewave
    Areas further west back toward NYC may have the best shot if the Euro verifies. This is the furthest north the mix gets on the 0z Euro.
  13. bluewave
    Even areas south of Sunrise Highway should pick up at least 3-6” before any mixing tonight.
  14. bluewave
    The whole pattern is mismatched. Record early month +PNA spike for moderate La Niña. Sudden appearance of blocking over the North Pole in the short term. +AAM and record warm +PMM NP SSTs with a moderate La Niña. Record Arctic warmth and low sea ice. So this storm looks like a microcosm of all the competing influences. The old analogs just don’t work for this new climate.
  15. bluewave
    This generally looks like a 3 part storm. Front end thump snow burst followed by WAA aloft and mixing near the coast . Part 3 is always most uncertain since snow bands with ULs aren’t forecast very well too far in advance. You want the low to close off in the right spot so you get under the snow bands. But it takes work to prime the atmosphere for more snow following WAA aloft. That’s why there aren’t many examples of impressive back end snows following mixing.
  16. bluewave
    There aren’t many examples of Miller B cold winter storms tracking over Southern NJ in December. The only one that comes to mind during another winter month Valentine’s Day in 2007. But that had features that were different from this one. We usually see Miller B primaries weaken to our west before a new center pops SE of ACY.
  17. bluewave
    This storm looks like it will be a version of the 94 ABE-ACY gradient. Time Series Summary for Allentown Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1994-04-30 75.2 0 Time Series Summary for Atlantic City Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 1994-04-30 7.8 0
  18. bluewave
    The GFS V15 is getting replaced by the v16 next year due to the cold bias. It will be the least reliable piece of guidance for this event. https://dtcenter.org/sites/default/files/events/2020/1-fanglin-yang.pdf Outstanding Issues • PBL inversion • Cold bias in the lower troposphere in winter • Surface temperature biases
  19. bluewave
    They already know about the cold bias on the v15. So it probably isn’t the forecast tool to use in this situation. They appear to have fixed the cold bias on the V16 which is scheduled to go operational later in the winter. https://www.wired.com/story/the-governments-new-weather-model-faces-a-storm-of-protest/
  20. bluewave
    This will be our first storm to test out the new dynamic ratio. https://www.weathernerds.org/models/field_definitions/Snowfall.pdf
  21. bluewave
    So will there be a new meso model related to the FV3 that replaces the NAM? The only thing that I can tell about the GFS v16 is that the cold bias appears to have been corrected.
  22. bluewave
    These are the highest astronomical tides of the month with the new moon. So E to NE wind gusts in the 50-60 mph range will really pile up the water for early Thursday. It will probably look like icebergs in Freeport as the snowpack begins to float on the surge. Had this happen several times in Long Beach.
  23. bluewave
    This will be the first winter storm for the big HRRR upgrade a few weeks ago. It will be interesting to see if further development down the line replaces the NAM. Heard a while back that the NAM may be discontinued next few years https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf2/scn20-46rapv5_hrrr_v4aab.pdf
  24. bluewave
    The usual flood prone spots like Freeport could approach low end major flooding. Especially if the low tucks in and slowly crawls east early Thursday. Also looks like coastal sections may approach HWW criteria. http://hudson.dl.stevens-tech.edu/sfas/
  25. bluewave
    The Euro came a little north from this time yesterday. Gets the mix line closer to -I-78 in NJ and the LIE on LI.
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