bluewave

There are a few things here. None of the models have been showing what we think of as a traditional +PNA at any time within the effective 2 week period. We had a few attempts to boost heights near California near the end of those 15 day runs. But that keeps getting pushed back. Yesterdays extended runs beyond day 15 had this hint of rising heights near California. But this is beyond the effective range. Speculation then turned to why models were showing these height rises. The MJO going into phase 7 with +AAM was one possibility. I think we all know that any model runs beyond day 15 are fickle. Plus any MJO related effect could be short lived after the MJO wave weakens.

This was our 5th warmest first half of December on record. 7 out of the top 10 warmest years have occurred since the late 90s. It’s a reflection of how December is one of our fastest warming winter months. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Dec 1 to Dec 16 Missing Count 1 2015-12-16 51.8 0 2 2001-12-16 50.4 0 3 1998-12-16 50.3 0 4 1953-12-16 46.4 0 5 2021-12-16 46.2 0 6 2011-12-16 45.3 0 7 2012-12-16 45.0 0 8 1999-12-16 44.7 0 - 1891-12-16 44.7 0 9 1951-12-16 44.6 2 10 1879-12-16 44.5 2

Syracuse just had their 2nd warmest December day on record between the 16th and 31st. Only 1° behind 2015. Three of the top five warmest readings occurred since 2015 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON, NY 519 PM EST THU DEC 16 2021 ...RECORD DAILY HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT SYRACUSE NY... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 67 WAS SET AT THE SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT NEAR MATTYDALE NY TODAY. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD FOR DECEMBER 16TH OF 55 SET IN 1971. Time Series Summary for SYRACUSE HANCOCK INTL AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Dec 16 to Dec 31 Missing Count 1 2015-12-31 68 0 2 2021-12-31 67 0 3 1949-1957 66 0 4 2018-12-31 65 0 - 1984-12-31 65 0 5 1964-12-31 64 0

If the changes we are seeing turn out to be MJO driven, then the effects may only last until this MJO wave weakens. All these extended model runs are only a snapshot of what early January may look like. We can’t really extrapolate the whole month from the first 10 days. It’s nearly impossible to make a long range forecast based on another long range forecast.

It looks like the extended EPS moved toward the JMA in early January. It now tries to build a ridge near California. This is a big shift from the run a few days ago. It may be correcting to more of a MJO 7 +AAM look. The model could continue playing catch up like it recently did with the -NAO. So future runs could show further corrections. New run Jan 3-10 Old run

No problem. Allan does a great job with his custom MJO composites. Even if 50% of that 500 mb pattern verified in January, it would probably be 100% better than this month so far.

These new December extremes just keep coming.

Raleighwx just updated for January +AAM and MJO 7-8 composites.

We haven’t been following any of the traditional MJO composites this month due to the interference pattern and big +AAM spike. Raleighwx posted some great custom composites with +AAM. But I think that the sample size gets really small when we get several factors interacting with each other. The MJO 7 500 mb composites in January have more ridging near the West Coast. But none of the composites may be an exact match due to the interaction of different influences and the recent very strong -PNA and -PDO couplet.

MJO 7 in early January has a different effect than in December. The hope is that is eventually leads to height rises in California. That’s what the latest JMA is trying to show. So it will be interesting to see if the EPS weeklies update today follows the JMA.

The RMM chart forecasts are famous for rushing things. All you are seeing know is them correcting to the slower VP charts. The VP charts still have MJO phase 7 on January 1st.

Like we have seen in recent years, these marine heatwaves can enhance or weaken the ENSO background states. Last winter the marine heatwave worked against the La Niña and it couldn’t couple. This year the record SST warmth in MJO 6 and 7 is causing the most amplified La Niña December MJO 6-7 in the records. So we are getting a typical JFM La Niña MJO response in December instead of later in the season. This current MJO 6-7 is what we got during our last 4 La Ninas later in the season.

December version of the Dust Bowl.

Parts of Florida are near their peak right now.

Some NYC trees still holding onto their leaves as of a few days ago. Even here in SW Suffolk, there were a few fully leafed out trees until this past weekend. But the recent strong winds finally blew them down.

Thursday and Friday will be our annual warm up within about 5 days of the solstice. KEWR GFSX MOS GUIDANCE 12/15/2021 1200 UTC FHR 24 36| 48 60| 72 84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192 THU 16| FRI 17| SAT 18| SUN 19| MON 20| TUE 21| WED 22|THU CLIMO N/X 46 62| 46 64| 40 44| 36 46| 25 39| 27 49| 32 45| 34 28 43

New December all-time high temperatures in Iowa.

The extremes just keep coming.

Out of season warmth, severe, and 500 mb ridges have become more common in recent years. We had our extreme winter ridge record in February 2018 with the record 80° February warmth. Now the areas to our west are setting new 500 mb height and temperature records for December. Unfortunately, the clash with the December jet stream leads to dangerous severe outbreaks.

Yeah, it’s all related. The MJO slowing in phase 6-7 this month is right over those record SSTs causing the extreme marine heatwave. In recent years during La Ninas, the most amplified MJO phase 6-7 phases were later in the winter. So this much amplitude in December is something new for us.

The very amplified and slow moving MJO is related to the extreme marine heatwave near Australia and New Zealand.

That’s for sure. More out of season severe and warmth across the country today. One of the warmest starts to December for the US averaged out.

The GEFS and GEPS pattern near the end of December is what we want to see. This is the first long range run with rising heights out West and and an improving PNA. Hopefully, we can start putting some snow points on the board near the end of December and start of January. We just need the raising heights out West and let the storm track details work themselves out in later runs.

Thanks. Our most famous version of a Pacific improvement was in 10-11. We can all remember the numerous long range snowstorms that the models were showing during the first 3 weeks of December in 2010. But the hostile Pacific resulted in only a T of snow at Newark from Dec 1 to Dec 25. The improved Pacific gave Newark a record breaking 61.5” from 12-26 to 1-27. That pattern was on track to surpass what it took 95-96 to do from November to April. But the February La Niña climo caught up with the pattern and the snows shut off. T of snow at Newark with hostile Pacific 61.5” with the big Pacific improvement

A small shift in the Pacific can make a big difference in our snowfall outcomes with -NAO and -AO patterns. Jan and Feb 2010 are probably the most extreme example of this. The NEPAC vortex in Jan was too far east so NYC only got 2.1” of snow for the month. In Feb it backed off and NYC got 36.9”. Just looking at the Greenland block both months, you would have thought that Jan would have been much better for NYC snowfall. So while the models correcting stronger on the NAO and AO block is great to see, they still have a ways to go for the Pacific to get where we want it. We need the -PNA to weaken in future runs. Since models are always a work in progress, it would be nice to see later runs come around to a more favorable Pacific. While I am always open to models getting better than they look right now, we still have the record NEPAC vortex since the fall. Hopefully, this can change in later runs. Jan 10 only 2.1” in NYC…trough near West Coast a little too strong Feb 2010 36.9” in NYC…the trough backs off slightly and allows the -NAO snd -AO block to do its thing