bluewave

Upper 40s and rain here in SW Suffolk with dense fog. Getting to see the first grassy patches of bare ground in a while. So it looks like the fog is quickly eroding the snowpack.

Very impressive run before the rapid rise this week.

Sure it is. Notice the SE Ridge or WAR extending more strongly into the Canadian Maritimes. Very difficult to lock in the surface CAD with a pattern like that. The 50/50 low got pushed further NE near Greenland. New run Old run

They need to improve the globals so they stop underestimating the SE Ridge. New Euro run Old run

The 12z Euro warmed up for tomorrow. Now has us getting into the 50s. So the early morning heavy thunderstorms could lead to some flooding issues with the big snow piles along the side of the roads.

RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX 0749 AM CST MON FEB 15 2021 ...RECORD ALL-TIME MAXIMUM SNOWFALL SET AT ABILENE... AN ALL-TIME RECORD SNOWFALL OF 14.8 INCHES WAS SET AT ABILENE YESTERDAY FEBRUARY 14TH. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD OF 9.3 INCHES SET ON APRIL 5 1996.

Long Island also averaged more snow than Newark from 95-96 to 08-09. I used BNL snowfall since there were several years of ISP missing data Newark averaged 25.5 inches over those years to 35.3 at BNL. There were no years over that stretch that EWR had 10” more than BNL in a single season. The only seasons that Newark had a 10” or more lead over Suffolk were 20-21 so far, 18-19, and 10-11. So big tucked in snowfall tracks like this year have been uncommon since 95-96. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Islip Snowfall Newark Snowfall 2021-04-30 27.8 39.2 2020-04-30 6.8 6.9 2019-04-30 12.8 22.0 2018-04-30 65.9 39.4 2017-04-30 39.3 30.0 2016-04-30 41.4 32.8 2015-04-30 63.7 46.4 2014-04-30 63.7 61.1 2013-04-30 46.9 29.5 2012-04-30 4.7 8.8 2011-04-30 55.3 68.2 2010-04-30 53.8 47.9 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Newark Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 BNL LI Snowfall 2009-04-30 27.1 43 2008-04-30 14.6 11.5 2007-04-30 16.5 9.5 2006-04-30 37.9 30.5 2005-04-30 43.4 78.5 2004-04-30 47.8 60.2 2003-04-30 53.1 62.1 2002-04-30 3.6 5.5 2001-04-30 39.3 51.2 2000-04-30 18.4 14.0 1999-04-30 12.8 23.0 1998-04-30 6.9 4.5 1997-04-30 16.3 18.0 1996-04-30 78.4 90.7

While this winter is the snowiest in recent years, the storm track has still been tucked in near the coast. Newark has been ahead of snowfall at Islip for the last 2 out of 3 seasons with these closer to the coast storm tracks. Islip had the snowfall lead from 2013 to 2018 with more traditional benchmark tracks favoring eastern areas. It looks like the record SSTs off the coast have favored more ridging to the east during storm time. So the baroclinic zone has been further west. Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Islip Snowfall Newark Snowfall 2021-04-30 27.8 39.2 2020-04-30 6.8 6.9 2019-04-30 12.8 22.0 2018-04-30 65.9 39.4 2017-04-30 39.3 30.0 2016-04-30 41.4 32.8 2015-04-30 63.7 46.4 2014-04-30 63.7 61.1 2013-04-30 46.9 29.5 2012-04-30 4.7 8.8 2011-04-30 55.3 68.2 2010-04-30 53.8 47.9

Euro and NAM have a heavy elevated convection signal near the coast early Tuesday. So there could be quite a bit of ponding of water on the area roadways. Especially with the snowmelt and temperatures into the 40s. Should be an impressive temperature gradient between Toms River and Sussex County, NJ.

This is a great example of the October pattern repeating at some point during the winter. https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2020/10/27/oklahoma-ice-storm-power

So far the coldest low and high temperature in NYC this winter is 14°/25°. Houston has a chance to drop lower than that over the next few days. HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA... HOUSTON Cloudy Fzdrzl Ptcldy Fzrain Mocldy Sunny Sunny /36 18/23 12/33 33/42 31/37 24/49 35/63 /30 90/40 00/00 40/90 40/20 00/00 00/00 0.19 0.33 0.00 1.03 0.11 0.00 0.00

The 3km NAM has heavy elevated convection Tuesday morning. So maybe some poor drainage flooding with any storm drains that are blocked by snow. Could also lead to some basement flooding where there is snow packed near the foundations.

Light sleet mixed with freezing drizzle here in SW Suffolk and 27°.

27° With sleet here in SW Suffolk.

This winter is really doing its own thing. The big snowstorm in December came before the lowest AO reading of the month. No measurable snowfall through most of January with the AO dropping below -3 several times. Then we had the snowiest first week of February in NYC just before the -AO dropped below -5. So there have been a number of competing influences on our pattern.

We are back to 20 days or more of 1”+ snow cover like 16-17 and 17-18. But still well behind the 50+ day years like 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. I can still remember the snow piles that looked like a mini mountain range near the LB Boardwalk in 2011. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Number of Days Snow Depth >= 1 Oct 1 to Apr 30 Missing Count 2021-04-30 20 77 2020-04-30 2 0 2019-04-30 12 0 2018-04-30 20 0 2017-04-30 20 0 2016-04-30 11 0 2015-04-30 55 0 2014-04-30 59 0 2013-04-30 11 0 2012-04-30 3 0 2011-04-30 57 0 2010-04-30 25 0

Yeah, the strongest Arctic outbreaks in recent years have been to our west around the Plains. You can see how the Plains are warming more slowly than other parts of the country. The record Atlantic SSTs and SE Ridge have been a dominant force in our weather.

NYC has finally made it to 10+ consecutive days with at least 1” of snow cover. This is a first since 2016. But it’s tough to compete with years like 10-11, 13-14, and 14-15. 2010 to 2021 longest snow cover >= 1 Number of Consecutive Days Snow Depth >= 1 for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Run Length Ending Date 1 53 2011-02-17 2 50 2015-03-14 3 48 2014-03-10 4 12 2010-02-21 5 11 2021-02-11 6 10 2016-02-01

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 239 PM CST Fri Feb 12 2021 ...New Long Term... .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1133 AM CST Fri Feb 12 2021/ /Through Saturday/ Key Messages (now through Saturday): (1) Isolated bands of lake effect snow have developed near some of the lakes across North Texas. Some of these snow bands may result in localized reductions in visibility to less than one mile, and quick snow accumulations of up to one-half inch. LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Saturday evening onward/ Key Messages: (1) A historic winter storm is poised to impact North and Central Texas, with impacts beginning as early as Saturday morning, continuing through Monday. (2) Extremely cold temperatures, rivaling the December 1989 Arctic Outbreak, are forecast on Sunday and into Monday, with prolonged much below normal temperatures expected to continue through next week. (3) Major impacts resulting in severe stress to the region`s infrastructure (particularly power, water, and highways) are likely. Regional travel will be crippled for days. (4) Additional frozen precipitation will be possible toward the middle of next week, though confidence is low in the details at this time. Perhaps the most serious threat from this winter storm will be the cold temperatures. High temperatures will likely remain in the teens across the entire CWA on Monday. Combined with strong and gusty northerly winds, wind chill factors during the day will likely hover near 0 F. With the expected snowpack by Monday night, and the Arctic high building farther south, temperatures will plunge into the lower single digits across the region, with subzero temperatures likely north and west of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metropolitan Area. These will be some of the coldest temperatures in the region since the December 1989 Arctic Outbreak. Wind chill factors will likely be subzero across the region. Given that the region is highly unaccustomed to temperatures this low, significant impacts to the region`s infrastructure are expected. In the December 1989 Arctic Outbreak, there were numerous instances of water pipes (both exposed and buried) bursting as they froze in the extreme cold. In addition, the power grid is likely to approach record demand levels given the duration of the cold in addition to the magnitude. It cannot be stressed enough that this cold will be very dangerous. With the icy road conditions, if one were to become stuck attempting to travel, the cold temperatures would pose a serious threat to one`s life. Persons are urged to remain home and off the roads, and if one must venture out, to include necessary items to survive in extremely cold weather as it could be some time before someone were able to rescue you.

That’s for sure. Our winters have alternated between blocking or the SE Ridge. Once we lose the blocking, the SE Ridge returns. Even when we did have the strong blocking this winter, several of our snowstorms were more tucked in than usual. Probably related to the record SSTs off the East Coast forcing the baroclinic zone closer to the coast. So we seem to have the SSTs and MJO amping the SE Ridge. It takes some extreme type of blocking to suppress the SE Ridge enough.

Sure, it will be quite a temperature drop for them after reaching 85° earlier in the month. Climatological Data for Austin Area, TX (ThreadEx) - February 2021 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Avg Temperature Avg Temperature Departure HDD CDD Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 2021-02-01 67 41 54.0 1.3 11 0 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-02 69 40 54.5 1.7 10 0 0.00 0.0 M 2021-02-03 77 45 61.0 8.0 4 0 0.00 0.0 M 2021-02-04 85 55 70.0 16.9 0 5 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-05 61 44 52.5 -0.8 12 0 0.06 0.0 0 2021-02-06 75 48 61.5 8.1 3 0 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-07 70 40 55.0 1.5 10 0 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-08 76 51 63.5 9.8 1 0 0.00 0.0 0 2021-02-09 64 46 55.0 1.1 10 0 T 0.0 0 2021-02-10 46 37 41.5 -12.5 23 0 0.04 M M 2021-02-11 37 31 34.0 -20.2 31 0 0.45 0.0 0

The last time they dropped below 10° was 1989. Time Series Summary for Austin-Bergstrom Airport Area, TX (ThreadEx) - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Lowest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1949 -5 2 2 1989 6 0 3 1951 8 1 4 2010 10 0 5 1983 11 0 - 1964 11 0

NYC is at the 23rd longest streak under 50° days at 41 days.