bluewave

Good model agreement on 850 mb temperatures in the 20-22C range. So this should allow the warm spots to reach 100° or higher. It would be the first June and August 100° or warmer at Newark since 1993 and 1953. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Jun Jul Aug Season 2021 103 97 92 103 2011 102 108 98 108 1994 102 99 95 102 1993 102 105 100 105 1952 102 98 92 102 1943 102 95 97 102 1988 101 101 99 101 1966 101 105 95 105 1959 100 93 96 100 1953 100 99 102 102 1934 100 98 90 100

The -AO/+PNA fans are hoping that the Euro seasonal isn’t smoking something.

We are witnessing the compounding effects of multiple issues. The warming climate is drying out the West to record levels providing more fuel for the fires. So the fires grew to record levels whether the spark is caused by human activities or nature. Poor land management has also contributed to the build up of fuels. People have moved into very high risk areas. It’s very expensive to bury power lines. I am not sure how people will afford steeply rising electric rates to pay these costs. Property insurance is also getting very high in those areas. So people are getting priced out of the market. Many are getting tired of all these fires and costs and moving to other parts of the country. So by just letting climate change run, we are creating a regressive climate damage tax which falls hardest on people with lower incomes.

Figures that Christmas had warmer weather relative to the means than the Memorial day and a July 4th weekends.

10 out of the last 11 weekends since Memorial Day had at least a T of rain. The extended Memorial Day and July 4th weekends were unusually cool and damp. So it will be interesting to see if maybe we get a stalled front or tropical system for Labor Day weekend. Not sure if we ever had all 3 big extended holiday summer weekends with significant rain before.

It’s the land ice that’s at risk in Antarctica from warmer SST’s below the surface. But the tipping point will probably come by around 2060. That’s when we are on track to pass +2c of warming. The big unknown at this point is whether the WAIS will break up over a few centuries or several decades.

We would probably have ocean temperatures in the 80s with a marine heatwave like Japan is having. So we’ll see if the East Coast ever gets one as severe in coming years.

Imagine how many 90° days JFK would have if Jamaica Bay was as warm as Biscayne Bay.

Models lack the resolution to show those finer details. That’s why when they show upper 90s to near 100° in interior NJ those highs usually verify for EWR and LGA. The other thing is that the warmth on the first day of deep SW flow usually beats guidance. Then the heat on the next few days start from a higher launching point than forecast. Sometimes, more morning WSW flow verifies on Long Island before the sea breeze arrives. So areas near and north of the LIE can make a run in 95° before temperatures fall back.

Even SW Nassau should reach 90° before any sea breezes arrive. You can see a deep SW flow from the 5 boroughs westward. Most spots on LI from Sunrise highway north should also reach 90°. Both the Euro and GFS have +20c 850s on Wed, Thurs, and Fri.

Omaha is the most recent record flash flood. Luckily, these people were rescued from the elevator and made it out OK.

Euro and GFS both agree that the usual warm spots could approach 100° this week.

ENSO has pretty much been irrelevant for the last three winters. 18-19 and 19-20 were El Niño’s that never coupled. The actual patterns were La Niña-like with below normal snowfall and a raging polar vortex in 19-20. Last winter was a moderate La Niña with a +PNA and near record -AO. So not much resemblance to a La Niña. As always, we will have near to above normal snowfall if blocking shows up again. But below normal snowfall if the blocking is lackluster. Hard to believe the only winters with below snowfall since 02-03 were 06-07, 07-08, 12-13, 18-19, and 19-20.

10 out of 11 weekends since Memorial Day with at least a T of rain. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Precipitation 2021-05-29 0.58 2021-05-30 1.15 2021-05-31 T 2021-06-01 0.00 2021-06-02 T 2021-06-03 0.41 2021-06-04 0.19 2021-06-05 0.00 2021-06-06 0.00 2021-06-07 0.04 2021-06-08 2.19 2021-06-09 0.53 2021-06-10 0.00 2021-06-11 T 2021-06-12 T 2021-06-13 T 2021-06-14 0.16 2021-06-15 0.01 2021-06-16 0.00 2021-06-17 0.00 2021-06-18 0.00 2021-06-19 0.05 2021-06-20 0.00 2021-06-21 T 2021-06-22 0.17 2021-06-23 0.00 2021-06-24 0.00 2021-06-25 0.00 2021-06-26 0.07 2021-06-27 0.00 2021-06-28 0.00 2021-06-29 0.00 2021-06-30 0.54 2021-07-01 0.94 2021-07-02 1.53 2021-07-03 0.05 2021-07-04 0.00 2021-07-05 0.00 2021-07-06 0.55 2021-07-07 T 2021-07-08 0.08 2021-07-09 1.60 2021-07-10 T 2021-07-11 T 2021-07-12 0.69 2021-07-13 0.01 2021-07-14 0.07 2021-07-15 T 2021-07-16 0.00 2021-07-17 2.28 2021-07-18 T 2021-07-19 T 2021-07-20 0.00 2021-07-21 0.05 2021-07-22 0.00 2021-07-23 T 2021-07-24 0.00 2021-07-25 0.37 2021-07-26 0.08 2021-07-27 T 2021-07-28 0.04 2021-07-29 0.57 2021-07-30 0.00 2021-07-31 0.00 2021-08-01 0.13 2021-08-02 0.00 2021-08-03 0.00 2021-08-04 0.00 2021-08-05 0.00 2021-08-06 0.00 2021-08-07 T 2021-08-08 M

Consistent pattern over the last year of tucked in lows near the Jersey Shore. Several tropical systems since last summer and winter storms in the same location. Now we have this compact low with a very well defined circulation. Station Number: NJ-CN-26 Station Name: Winslow Twp 5.7 SSE Observation Date 8/8/2021 7:00 AM Submitted 8/08/2021 7:09 AM Total Precip Amount 3.49 in.

The South Shore barrier islands get the cooling sea breeze influence first. Then it makes it to sunrise followed by the Southern State snd Hempstead turnpike. The big 90 day leader on Long Island in near and north of the LIE.

I wasn’t criticizing the placement of the JFK ASOS. It's got a great sitting in accordance with all the ASOS guidelines. It’s located near the NE portion of the airport not far from SW Nassau.

Looks like the winds will finally go SW from Wed into Fri. So that will probably be the next shot for the warm spots to go 95+.

The more humid onshore flow since 2015 could be related to the AMOC slowdown. High pressure keeps building east of New England where that warm pool is located. Notice how the ridge was to our west in 2010 giving us the record westerly flow heat. The changes in the Pacific since 2015 are also influencing the pattern.

It’s great that you got a reply. But the station he referenced was Chesapeake Virginia. Central Park is NYC. Chesapeake Airport - KCPK 2800 Airport Drive Chesapeake, Virginia 23323 Chesapeake Airport Authority Manager: Mr. Chris Schrantz Chairman: Mr. C. Cowling Telephone: (757) 432-8110 E-Mail: [email protected] Fax: (757) 432-8410 E-Mail: [email protected]

A nice benefit of the onshore flow.

The PNA continues to set new all-time records highs each day. So a major drop coming up. This may be why the models are flipping around so much with our daily wind direction and temperatures over the next week.

But the actual rank is by the temperature. Notice how the top 10s are listed on the NWS site. Several years can be tied but the next year after the tie doesn’t skip a rank. 2020 was still the 5th warmest February behind the two ties at 3rd and 4th warmest. https://www.weather.gov/media/okx/Climate/CentralPark/warmcoldmonths.pdf

Yeah, I would be curious to see how they respond to a simple analysis like we have done on this forum. JFK has seen a similar rise in JJA temperatures as the other stations. You can see the big giveaway that the NYC ASOS went from the sun to deep shade. Notice how the average minimum JJA temperature rose in line with the other stations since 1951-1980. But the average high from 1951-1980 to 2011-2020 is virtually unchanged. JJA 1950-1981 to 2011-2020 temperature change NYC max….83.0…83.2….+0.2 min…..66.0…68.2….+2.2 EWR max…83.4…85.3…..+1.9 min….65.8….67.8…..+2.0 LGA max…82.0….84.4…..+2.4 min….66.8….69.9…..+3.1 JFK max….80.5….82.5…..+2.0 min…..65.4….67.7……+2.3