bluewave

This summer is starting out with EWR having warmer temperature departures than LGA. We saw a pattern like this last summer. It’s a reversal from LGA having the higher departures from 2018 to 2020. So our stations are very sensitive to prevailing wind directions since they are located so close to the Atlantic and LI Sound. JJA 2022 so far EWR…+3.5 LGA….+0.6 JJA 2021 EWR…+2.5 LGA…..+0.7 JJA….2020 EWR….+2.4 LGA…..+4.2 JJA….2019 EWR….+1.3 LGA…..+2.0 JJA……2018 EWR….+1.3 LGA……+2.6

The sea breezes are keeping areas to the east of Newark much cooler than the +3.5 there. EWR…+3.5 NYC…..+1.0 LGA……+0.6 JFK……+1.4 ISP…….+1.9 BDR……+1.1 HPN……+1.3

Highest dewpoint in 11 years for CVG to 80°. So the record heat and humidity will be very impressive to our west this week. Temperatures will rise to the upper 90s to around 100° next few days around the Great Lakes. Past record heat for the Great Lakes in mid-June also made it here. The 12z OP Euro has potential highs in the mid 90s for for Newark on Friday with a slower cold frontal passage and more sun. The other models including the EPS mean were cooler with more clouds and storms. The OP Euro matches past experience. So if the cooler models in the low 90s are right, then it would be a first for our area in mid-June. Looks much cooler behind the front for the weekend.

Getting some weakening of the La Niña following the record strength in the spring.

Classic MCS possible derecho track ESE from the Great Lakes to our south tonight into tomorrow.

Rainfall amounts are usually quite variable when we rely on convection this time of year. Some parts of the region have had a good soaking. Other spots have found ways to miss out on the best rainfall. Monthly Data for June 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 3.69 NY SHRUB OAK COOP 3.59 NJ TETERBORO AIRPORT WBAN 3.00 NY SYOSSET COOP 2.77 CT MERIDEN MARKHAM MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 2.69 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 2.52 NY JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 2.45 NY LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 2.42 Monthly Data for June 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation PA CANADENSIS EAST COOP 4.77 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 4.32 PA PHILADELPHIA INTL AP WBAN 3.81 PA MOUNT POCONO POCONO MOUNTAINS MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 3.68 NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 3.61 NJ MOUNT OLIVE TWP 0.6 W CoCoRaHS 3.56 NJ CHESTER TWP 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 3.50

The 80° day records at Newark since the super El Niño have been more impressive than the 90° day records. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Missing Count 1 2015 118 0 2 2021 116 0 3 1994 114 0 4 2016 113 0 - 1993 113 0 - 1991 113 0 5 2011 111 0 - 2010 111 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 90 Missing Count 1 2010 54 0 2 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2018 02-21 (2018) 80 10-11 (2018) 81 231 2016 03-09 (2016) 82 10-19 (2016) 87 223 1990 03-13 (1990) 86 10-14 (1990) 83 214 1945 03-16 (1945) 81 10-19 (1945) 82 216 2011 03-18 (2011) 80 10-10 (2011) 85 205 First/Last Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date. Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year First Value Last Value Difference 2010 04-07 (2010) 92 09-25 (2010) 90 170 1977 04-12 (1977) 90 09-02 (1977) 93 142 2002 04-16 (2002) 92 09-09 (2002) 91 145 1976 04-18 (1976) 93 08-23 (1976) 90 126 1941 04-20 (1941) 91 10-06 (1941) 90 168

First no 90s while having 9 or more days reach 80° from June 1st to 11th. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 80 Jun 1 to Jun 11 Maximum Temperature 1 2022-06-11 10 87 - 1967-06-11 10 91 2 2020-06-11 9 91 - 1995-06-11 9 91 - 1994-06-11 9 92 - 1992-06-11 9 90 - 1973-06-11 9 95 - 1962-06-11 9 91 - 1961-06-11 9 90 - 1959-06-11 9 95 - 1952-06-11 9 90 - 1933-06-11 9 99

The 12z HRRR rakes the MCS to our south closer to the better instability.

An early June statistical model forecast for the average September Arctic sea ice extent came in at 4.5 million sq km.

Summer starting out with the warmest departures west of the Hudson. EWR….+3.5 PHL….+2.8 NYC….+1.1 LGA…..+0.6 JFK…..+1.4 HPN….+1.3 ISP…….+1.7 BDR…..+1.2

Yeah, the Euro has near record 850s of +24C + in Chicago and around +18C for us next Friday. But the GFS and Euro both have clouds and convection here. The ridge on both models looks a little narrower than we typically get with a 594dm heat dome to our west. When Chicago has gone 94°+ around June 14-15th in the past, Newark has recorded near to record highs from 95° to 102°. But the Euro and GFS have enough clouds and convection to keep Newark below those levels. So we’ll see how things go later next week here with regard to the clouds and convection. Past years with near to record Chicago heat June 13th to 14th. Newark highs for June 13-21 in those years 2012….99° 1994….102° 1991…..97° 1988….99° 1987….96° 1954….95° 1952….98°

If we only make it to the low 90s like the GFS has later next week, it would be well below the mid to upper 90s forecast near the Great Lakes.

Yeah, it’s rare for mid to upper 90s around the Great Lakes not to make it here in June.

The heavy thunderstorms this morning caused an unusually large temperature error even by NYC standards. The wet vegetation growing over the sensors combined with the deep shade for one of the biggest temperature spreads of the season. Probably water dripping onto the thermometer combined with strong transpiration cooling the temperature under the trees. EWR….87° LGA…..85° NYC….81° JFK….84° ISP…..86°

Impressive wind gusts in Suffolk for early morning thunderstorms this time of year.

Strong thunderstorms moving through with some severe warnings down around Monmouth.

Strongest heat remains to our west through the solstice on the 12z EPS. So we’ll probably have to wait until late June or July for our first official heatwave with 3 days or more in a row reaching 90°. Last June we had our first heatwave from the 5th to the 9th. Data for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature 2021-06-05 95 2021-06-06 97 2021-06-07 95 2021-06-08 93 2021-06-09 96

While I usually don’t look at the point and clicks, the Euro forecast from yesterday had sunny and 80s for today. 12z Euro Tuesday forecast for today

The RGEM just got a big upgrade in December 2021 while the NAM development was frozen in 2017. NAM development was frozen after the March 2017 upgrade, and RAP/HRRR development with the WRF-ARW model will cease after the RAPv5/HRRRv4 upgrade in 2020. However, operational execution of these modeling and associated DA systems will continue until comparable FV3-based systems are able to give similar performance.

Thursday looks like a repeat of a few weeks ago when the NAM tried to take the MCS north of us. All the other guidance was further south across our area. So it’s no surprise that we get a nice round of morning convection on the HRRR and RGEM. Maybe we can sneak in a few afternoon 80s with enough clearing.

Interesting how the deeper low for early Thursday is leading to a weaker storm than originally forecast for the weekend. New runs Old runs

The ENSO forecasts from the various models are indicating a continuation of the La Niña background state into the fall. But our winter sensible weather always comes down to how much blocking we get. So we’ll probably have to wait at least another year for the fabled El Niño modoki.

That’s why vendors shouldn’t be extending those operational raw GFS temperature charts beyond 5-7 days. It’s much better to use ensembles when looking at week 2 patterns. Notice how the OP GFS forecast skill falls way below the ensemble means after day 7. The other problem is that there is no bias correction for the NYC ASOS raw temperature forecasts tucked in under the dense tree growth. The raw model doesn’t know that the ASOS is in deep shade during peak heating hours. So the raw GFS forecasts are always going to be unrealistically high for NYC. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/headlines/ EPS is highest scoring long range ensemble forecast. https://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/verification/global/gefs/ops/geo/

Looks like the major heat will remain to our west the next few weeks. So very comfortable temperatures for the area. The upper 90s record heat at the end of May will remain the warmest temperatures for a while.