bluewave

The usual warm spots will reach 95°-100° today before the scattered thunderstorms arrive this afternoon.

This was the 3rd warmest July in the US and #1 in parts of NJ and New England.

The 78° dewpoint at Poughkeepsie is 3rd highest on record for August. POUGHKEEPSIE MOSUNNY 86 78 https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=POU&var=max_dwpf&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=aug&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Unusually tropical along the Long Island Sound . Upper 70s dewpoints in New Haven and a 105° heat index.The low 80s SSTs are near the warmest we have ever seen them. https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=nwhc3 New Haven MOSUNNY 92 77 HX 105

The August monthly minimum has been rising faster at Old Forge in the Adirondacks and Poughkeepsie than NYC since 1950. Old Forge would occasionally drop to 32°or colder before the end of August. That hasn’t happened since the 1980s. Poughkeepsie hasn’t dropped into the 30s in August since then. Same goes for NYC not drooping below 55° in August.

95° heat index by 10am. Newark Liberty PTSUNNY 87 74 HX 95

Several stations from POU to EWR and Freehold-Marlboro are having their warmest July 20th to August 7th. Other sites are a close 2nd. The 2nd place sites can catch up with the heat the next few days when the period is extended to the 9th. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 79.5 0 2 1933-08-07 78.7 1 3 1955-08-07 78.5 0 4 1995-08-07 78.4 5 5 2020-08-07 77.9 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 82.3 0 2 1955-08-07 81.5 0 3 1999-08-07 80.4 1 4 2020-08-07 80.3 2 5 2011-08-07 80.1 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 83.8 0 2 2011-08-07 83.3 0 3 1999-08-07 82.5 0 4 2006-08-07 82.1 0 - 2005-08-07 82.1 0 - 1995-08-07 82.1 0 5 2020-08-07 81.5 0 Time Series Summary for HARRISON, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 2022-08-07 83.4 0 2 2020-08-07 82.8 0 - 2005-08-07 82.8 0 3 2006-08-07 82.3 0 4 2011-08-07 81.6 2 5 2019-08-07 81.2 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 1995-08-07 79.3 4 2 2022-08-07 79.0 1 - 1999-08-07 79.0 1 3 1955-08-07 77.9 1 4 1983-08-07 77.8 0 5 2006-08-07 77.7 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 7 Missing Count 1 1955-08-07 81.3 0 2 2022-08-07 81.1 0 3 1999-08-07 80.5 0 4 2011-08-07 80.4 0 5 2020-08-07 80.0 0

The rural to suburban stations have been having more impressive low temperatures during this heatwave than places around NYC. While numerous stations set record low maxes on Sunday, HPN came closest to the all-time August monthly warmest minimum temperature at 77°. The 73° low at Sussex County was 2nd warmest also for August. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1988 78 0 2 2022 77 25 - 2006 77 0 - 1985 77 0 3 2016 76 0 Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Aug Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 2001 74 1 2 2022 73 29 3 2021 72 0 - 2020 72 2 - 2016 72 0 - 2010 72 0 - 2006 72 0

Yeah, the Blue Hills Observatory and Nantucket had their warmest July on record. Time Series Summary for BLUE HILL COOP, MA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 76.0 0 2 1952 75.7 1 3 2010 75.5 3 4 2013 75.3 0 5 2016 75.2 0 - 1994 75.2 0 Time Series Summary for NANTUCKET MEMORIAL AP, MA - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Mean Avg Temperature Missing Count 1 2022 73.6 0 2 2013 72.3 0 3 2010 72.2 0 4 1975 72.0 0 5 2021 71.6 1 - 1952 71.6 0

Three record highs at Boston during the last several days as the Gulf of Maine extreme marine heatwave continues.

We’ll see if the Euro frontal wave idea works out this week or it loses it in later runs.

The sea breeze front has been stalling out along the North Shore since early July. So the South Shore has had one of its driest July into early August patterns. These areas may need to wait until the tropics become active to fully end the drought. But there will be opportunities for convection this week as the cold front may develop a wave of low pressure. Data for July 1, 2022 through August 6, 2022 Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation SYOSSET COOP 5.96 NY CITY CENTRAL PARK WBAN 5.03 RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM COOP 4.41 ORIENT POINT STATE PARK COOP 4.36 BAITING HOLLOW COOP 3.99 UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK COOP 3.90 CENTERPORT COOP 3.87 MOUNT SINAI COOP 3.81 WESTCHESTER CO AP WBAN 3.79 PORT JEFFERSON STATION 0.3 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.77 SMITHTOWN 2.0 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.76 NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 3.60 CENTEREACH 1.3 NE CoCoRaHS 3.52 ALBERTSON 0.2 SSE CoCoRaHS 3.38 QUEENS 2.1 NE CoCoRaHS 3.38 SHELTER ISLAND HEIGHTS 2.1 SSW CoCoRaHS 3.12 LAGUARDIA AIRPORT WBAN 3.10 PORT WASHINGTON 0.8 N CoCoRaHS 3.05 MOLLOY CERCOM COOP 3.01 FLORAL PARK 0.4 W CoCoRaHS 3.01 NESCONSET 1.4 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.88 RIDGE 1.8 SE CoCoRaHS 2.70 JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW CoCoRaHS 2.68 RIVERHEAD 1.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.52 FISHERS ISLAND 0.5 NE CoCoRaHS 2.36 RIDGE 1.5 SE CoCoRaHS 2.34 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 0.3 SSE CoCoRaHS 2.27 HOWARD BEACH 0.4 NNW CoCoRaHS 2.09 SHIRLEY 2.9 N CoCoRaHS 1.84 STATEN ISLAND 1.4 SE CoCoRaHS 1.71 STATEN ISLAND 4.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 1.61 ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP WBAN 1.56 MASSAPEQUA 1.1 SE CoCoRaHS 1.53 SHIRLEY BROOKHAVEN AIRPORT WBAN 1.47 JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 1.35 BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW CoCoRaHS 1.33 SETAUKET-EAST SETAUKET 2.1 WNW CoCoRaHS 1.31 BROOKLYN 3.1 NW CoCoRaHS 1.26 MASSAPEQUA PARK 1.2 N CoCoRaHS 1.12 WANTAGH 0.3 ESE CoCoRaHS 1.05 JACKSON HEIGHTS 0.3 WSW CoCoRaHS 1.05 ISLIP TERRACE 0.5 W CoCoRaHS 0.98 BRIDGEHAMPTON COOP 0.97 CENTER MORICHES 0.5 N CoCoRaHS 0.96 BAY SHORE 0.5 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.94 AMITYVILLE 0.6 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.94 ISLIP TERRACE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.90 AMITYVILLE 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.87 PATCHOGUE 0.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.78 WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP WBAN 0.75 FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP WBAN 0.74 REMSENBURG-SPEONK 0.9 NE CoCoRaHS 0.73 SAYVILLE 0.2 SE CoCoRaHS 0.72 BRIGHTWATERS 0.5 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.69 SAYVILLE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.67 COPIAGUE 0.4 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.50 BLUE POINT 0.4 E CoCoRaHS 0.27

6th warmest July on record in NJ. 8 out of the 10 warmest Julys have occurred since 2010. Nice write-up from the NJ climatologist. Some highlights https://www.njweather.org/content/once-again-hot-and-time-around-dry-july-2022-recap When it comes to recent hot Julys in New Jersey, the beat goes on. This year the heat was joined by quite limited precipitation, something not often seen in recent years. The statewide average temperature of 78.1° was 2.7° above the 1991–2020 normal, ranking 6th warmest since records commenced in 1895. Eight of the ten warmest Julys have occurred since 2010, leaving only 1955 and 1999 as top-ten outliers (Table 1). The statewide average maximum was 88.6° (+2.9°, 6th warmest) and the minimum 67.5° (+2.4°, 4th warmest). Northern counties averaged 75.9° (+2.2°, 9th warmest), southern counties 79.5° (+3.0°, 3rd warmest), and coastal areas 78.8° (+2.6°, tied as 4th warmest). On 24 July days one or more NJWxNet station reached a maximum of 90° or higher. This is just one day fewer than the record-hot July of 2020. Hillsborough-Duke (Somerset County) had 21 days of 90° maximums, one ahead of the Newark Airport station in Elizabeth (Union) and three above New Brunswick (Middlesex). The latter two stations have weather records extending back to 1931 and 1893 and this year experienced, respectively, their 2nd (tied with 1993; +4.4°) and 3rd (+3.1°) hottest Julys. It is no coincidence that these thermal anomalies were among the largest in NJ, given that these stations were among the driest locations. Newark Airport received just 0.55”, the least on record, while New Brunswick saw 0.79”, their second lowest July total. The resulting dry conditions meant that the ground and atmosphere heated up more readily than in wetter locations where there was more evaporation to assist in reducing temperatures. The airport recorded five days with highs of 100°–102°. Occurring consecutively (20th–24th), this marked the longest streak on record. Hillsborough-Duke missed this 100° run by a day, only making it to 99° on the 22nd.

The low of 73° at FWN was just 1° below the all-time warmest since the records began in 2000. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=KFWN&hours=72 Maximum 1-Day Mean Min Temperature for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Value Ending Date Last value also occurred in one or more previous years. Period of record: 2000-08-28 to 2022-08-06 1 74.0 2018-07-24 - 74.0 2014-09-02 - 74.0 2001-08-10 2 73.0 2021-06-27 - 73.0 2014-07-15 - 73.0 2011-07-22 - 73.0 2005-07-17 - 73.0 2002-07-29 3 72.0 2021-08-18 - 72.0 2020-08-02

We may be able to get a break from the 75-80° lows and 95-100° highs after Wednesday. The EPS brings a weak trough into the region by later Wednesday into Thursday. It continues with this weak trough theme days 6-10 and 11-15.

The low of 78° at White Plains was only 3° off the all-time warmest of 81°. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=khpn Aug 7, 7:56 am 80 76 87 86 5 10.00 BKN018 1021.70 29.80 30.20 81 78 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Min Temperature Missing Count 1 1999 81 58 2 2013 78 1 - 2011 78 2 - 1995 78 85 - 1988 78 5

Looks like roost rings. https://www.weather.gov/grb/081110_roostring

Even our northern suburbs are having trouble dropping much below the upper 70s for near record warm minimums this morning with the high dewpoints. White Plains PTCLDY 79 76 90 CALM 30.18S Larchmont Harb N/A 79 N/A N/A S10 N/A Croton On Huds N/A 79 N/A N/A S6 N/A Danbury CLEAR 79 73 82 SW6

The record highs are occurring to our north in the August heatwave so far.

The current 78° dewpoint at Nantucket is the 2nd highest on record as the SSTs approach 80°. NANTUCKET MOSUNNY 83 78 https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ntkm3 Water Temperature (WTMP): 79.7 °F https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=155&network=MA_ASOS&zstation=ACK&var=max_dwpf&threshold=100&hour=12&sdate=0101&edate=1231&month=all&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

56 days reaching 100° in San Antonio by August 5th beats the next closest year by 16 days. Time Series Summary for San Antonio Area, TX (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Number of Days Max Temperature >= 100 Jan 1 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 2022-08-05 56 0 2 2009-08-05 40 0 3 1998-08-05 36 0 4 1980-08-05 30 0 5 2011-08-05 28 0

Even White Plains is close to a 90/70 high low spilt which is rare for your area from July 20th to August 5th. Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1999-08-05 89.5 0 2 1995-08-05 87.9 0 3 2022-08-05 87.8 1 4 1952-08-05 87.3 0 5 2005-08-05 86.9 0 - 1949-08-05 86.9 0 Time Series Summary for WESTCHESTER CO AP, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Min Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1995-08-05 70.3 2 2 2020-08-05 69.5 0 3 2022-08-05 69.4 1 4 2006-08-05 69.1 0 - 1994-08-05 69.1 0 5 1999-08-05 68.9 1

The Euro and GEM slowed the cold frontal passage down to later on Wednesday. So this will be near the warmest July 20th to August 10th periods on record. It will also rank as one of the areas warmest 3 week stretches of any time of the year. The usual warm spots could make a run on 100° from Monday into Wednesday.

The 0z EPS shifted to showing more blocking long range. This could mean better rainfall chances and less 95°+ major heat potential later in August. But it’s one of those things that could shift if the WAR is stronger in later runs. New run Old run

The average high temperature since July 20th has been near the warmest it has ever been across the region. Even places in the Hudson Valley like POU are have been over 90° which is rare. EWR and POU are very close with EWR at 93.2° and POU at 92.2°. The tree growth has kept NYC much cooler at 88.6°. New Brunswick is 3rd warmest at 92.3°. Freehold is #1 at 94.6°. The 2 Philly stations are also near the top above 90°. The high at PHL has been 92.3° and KPNE 92.5°. So not seeing any high temperature errors there like some have been mentioning. Newark is also in line with the other warm spots. This leaves NYC as having the only big error in the region. Time Series Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1933-08-05 93.4 1 2 2022-08-05 92.2 0 3 1955-08-05 91.9 0 4 2005-08-05 91.1 0 5 1995-08-05 90.8 5 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 2022-08-05 93.2 0 2 2011-08-05 92.6 0 - 1993-08-05 92.6 0 4 2005-08-05 92.2 0 5 1999-08-05 91.7 0 6 1995-08-05 91.6 0 Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1999-08-05 91.3 0 2 1955-08-05 91.1 0 3 2005-08-05 90.6 0 4 1995-08-05 90.5 0 5 1993-08-05 90.4 0 6 2011-08-05 90.1 0 - 1944-08-05 90.1 0 7 1980-08-05 89.9 0 8 1949-08-05 89.4 0 9 2015-08-05 89.2 0 10 2010-08-05 88.9 0 11 1933-08-05 88.8 0 12 2022-08-05 88.6 0 Time Series Summary for New Brunswick Area, NJ (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1999-08-05 93.4 0 2 1955-08-05 93.1 0 3 2022-08-05 92.3 0 4 2011-08-05 92.2 0 5 1894-08-05 91.2 0 Time Series Summary for FREEHOLD-MARLBORO, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 2022-08-05 94.6 0 2 1955-08-05 93.2 0 3 1999-08-05 92.3 1 4 2011-08-05 91.6 0 5 2020-08-05 91.1 1 Time Series Summary for NORTHEAST PHILADELPHIA AIRPORT, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1999-08-05 93.1 0 2 2011-08-05 92.6 0 3 2022-08-05 92.5 0 4 2019-08-05 91.2 0 5 2005-08-05 90.5 0 Time Series Summary for PHILADELPHIA INTL AP, PA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Max Temperature Jul 20 to Aug 5 Missing Count 1 1995-08-05 93.8 0 2 2022-08-05 92.3 0 3 2011-08-05 92.2 0 4 1999-08-05 92.0 0 - 1987-08-05 92.0 0 5 1955-08-05 91.5 0