bluewave

This weekend looks to follow the same 2 days of 90s theme before the next cool down.

Almost looks like a PRE. But with a cutoff low instead of a tropical system to our south.

I haven’t been able to find another June with such a strong ridge in the Plains and near Hudson Bay. My guess is that Matt Hugo is correct about the May +AAM spike and lingering blocking influence. So we get the stronger Hudson Bay blocking running with the La Niña background state of heat and drought in the Plains. Almost looks like the +AAM blocking influence got delayed for several weeks and waited to show up in June.

Texas is one of the warmest parts of the country this month. DFW is having a top 10 warmest June. So it makes sense with a very strong ridge in the Plains. But the near record block just north of Hudson Bay typically doesn’t go with this type of pattern. So this is why the 100° heat near the Great Lakes has stayed to our west which is unusual. The other out of place feature is the deep trough near the Pacific Northwest. Much stronger blocking this June for DFW top 10 warmest composite 2022 vs composite

Another extreme with this highly amplified Omega Block.

Getting the heaviest downpour of the whole storm now in SW Suffolk. The NYC crew is happy that this isn’t a snow event.

Toledo ,Ohio had a record high of 100° yesterday. So far Newark only has a June monthly high of 95°. This is the coolest on record for all the 100° June years in Toledo. Most years Newark also made it to 100° in June. So this is an unusually amplified omega blocking pattern for this time of year. Time Series Summary for Toledo Area, OH (ThreadEx) - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Newark Highest Max Temperature 1 1988 104 101 2 2012 103 99 3 1934 101 100 4 2022 100 95 - 1952 100 102 RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 0617 PM EDT TUE JUN 21 2022 ...RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE SET AT TOLEDO OH... A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 100 WAS SET AT TOLEDO OH TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 100 SET IN 1988.

First guess for July 4th weekend is for frontloaded warmth. EPS is warmest on Friday. Then a cold front with storms on Saturday. Cooler and hopefully drier for Sunday into Monday as Canadian high pressure builds into Northern New England.

The persistent blocking pattern temporarily cooled off the Western Atlantic mid-latitude SSTs with the strong 50/50 low replacing the WAR and SE Ridge.

Unless we get an organized tropical system, convection is usually hit or miss this time of year. Monthly Data for June 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 5.85 TOMS RIVER TWP 3.1 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.77 MOUNT OLIVE TWP 0.6 W CoCoRaHS 5.75 CHESTER TWP 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 5.46 MOORESTOWN TWP 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.23 SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5.22 ROXBURY TWP 1.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.18 SOUTHAMPTON TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.09 MANSFIELD TWP 1.9 SW CoCoRaHS 5.00 Monthly Data for June 2022 for New Jersey Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Name Station Type Total Precipitation EAST WINDSOR TWP 1.6 W CoCoRaHS 0.00 PRINCETON 0.7 ESE CoCoRaHS T MIDDLE TWP 0.8 NNE CoCoRaHS 0.17 PRINCETON 1.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 0.41 MAURICE RIVER TWP 5.3 S CoCoRaHS 0.47 READINGTON TWP 1.8 ENE CoCoRaHS 0.55 HILLSBOROUGH TWP 2.6 ESE CoCoRaHS 0.68 FLEMINGTON 1.9 SE CoCoRaHS 0.69 OCEAN CITY 1.6 SW CoCoRaHS 0.71 MIDDLE TWP 3.3 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.73 LINWOOD 0.7 SSW CoCoRaHS 0.75 MIDDLE TWP 4.2 NNW CoCoRaHS 0.80 MAYS LANDING 1 W COOP 0.82 WILDWOOD CREST 0.1 WSW CoCoRaHS 0.83 OCEAN CITY COOP 0.97

After EWR set the June all-rime record of 103° last year, the monthly max of 95° this June felt much cooler. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of Jun Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Highest Max Temperature Missing Count 1 2021 103 0 2 2011 102 0 - 1994 102 0 - 1993 102 0 - 1952 102 0 - 1943 102 0 3 1988 101 0 - 1966 101 0 4 1959 100 0 - 1953 100 0 - 1934 100 0

The seasonal models are often low skill especially for the winter. Long range MJO and SPV forecasts get really difficult beyond week 2 during the winter. But the seasonal models seem to have better skill during the summer some years. While I don’t usually look at the CFS, the big IOD reversal it’s forecasting for next winter would be fun. The forcing shifts from the Maritime Continent to west of the Dateline in the WPAC. While the forecast may be completely wrong, forcing west of dateline would support at least a strong -EPO +PNA like we had in January. The state of the AO and NAO usually is unknown until the winter actually starts. Is Maritime Continent cooling and WPAC warming next winter fact or fiction? Current Winter forecast

Really unusual for the jet to be blowing this strong out of the north this time of year. It’s near a record according to the NEEFS. So this is why the convection is dropping SSE out of Canada.

The blocking started with the final stratospheric warming in late March. Sometimes once blocking becomes established, it just keeps going. But the strength of this blocking is unusual for June. Notice how strong the blocking is this month NE of Hudson Bay. So it will be interesting to see how long it can persist. Blocking since March 25th Blocking since June 1st

This is a different type of June pattern than we have seen in recent years. The heat ridges to our west have usually come east. This June we have the strong blocking pushing back against the heat dome. Most years the blocking is too weak in the summer to challenge the ridge to our west. So it will be interesting to see if the CFS is correct about the blocking continuing into next winter.

This is one of the strongest Omega Blocks that we have seen in June. https://www.theweatherprediction.com/habyhints/144/

The extended EPS for the start of July looks similar to the July forecast issued on June 5th. Rockies ridge with another ridge east of New England. If this pattern verifies, then the strongest heat in July relative to the means will be to our west. July Euro forecast issued on June 5th

The stationary front will serve as a focus for the convection this week. So a continuation of the wet June pattern for parts of the region. Several spots are already in excess of 4-5”. Monthly Data for June 2022 for Upton NY NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NY ELMSFORD 0.8 SSW CoCoRaHS 5.32 NJ HAWTHORNE 1.0 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.32 NJ TENAFLY 1.3 W CoCoRaHS 4.29 NJ WEST MILFORD TWP 2.5 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.29 NJ CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR COOP 4.28 NJ RIVER EDGE 0.4 NNE CoCoRaHS 4.25 CT TRUMBULL 0.9 W CoCoRaHS 4.20 CT DANBURY MUNICIPAL AP WBAN 4.19 CT NORWALK 2.9 NNW CoCoRaHS 4.18 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.7 SSE CoCoRaHS 4.17 NJ GLEN ROCK 0.4 WNW CoCoRaHS 4.14 Monthly Data for June 2022 for Mount Holly NJ NWS CWA Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. State Name Station Type Total Precipitation NJ PHILADELPHIA/MT. HOLLY WFO COOP 5.85 NJ TOMS RIVER TWP 3.1 SSE CoCoRaHS 5.77 PA MOUNT POCONO 0.7 N CoCoRaHS 5.63 NJ CHESTER TWP 0.6 ENE CoCoRaHS 5.46 NJ MOORESTOWN TWP 0.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.23 NJ SOUTH JERSEY REGIONAL AIRPORT WBAN 5.22 PA JIM THORPE 1.1 NNE CoCoRaHS 5.20 NJ ROXBURY TWP 1.2 ESE CoCoRaHS 5.18 PA CANADENSIS EAST COOP 5.16 NJ MOUNT OLIVE TWP 0.6 W CoCoRaHS 5.16 NJ SOUTHAMPTON TWP 1.6 SE CoCoRaHS 5.09 NJ MANSFIELD TWP 1.9 SW CoCoRaHS 5.00

It’s pretty rare to tie a record high and low only a few days apart. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 0535 PM EDT WED JUN 15 2022 A RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURE OF 94 WAS SET AT AKRON CANTON OH TODAY. THIS TIES THE OLD RECORD OF 94 SET IN 1925. RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND, OH 835 AM EDT SUN JUN 19 2022 ...RECORD LOW TEMPERATURES TIED AT AKRON-CANTON AT 607 AM EDT, AKRON-CANTON REGIONAL AIRPORT REACHED A MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OF 46 DEGREES. THIS TIES THE DAILY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE RECORD PREVIOUSLY SET IN 1947.

It looks like the 95° last week at Newark has a good chance of being the warmest high of the month. This is a continuation of past years when Newark reached 98°or warmer in May. All the June maximum temperatures in those years were lower.The May high temperature was actually the warmest of the entire season. But that was in a cooler climate era. So it will be interesting to see what the maximum temperature is this year. Monthly Highest Max Temperature for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year May Jun Jul Aug Sep Season 1996 99 92 91 92 92 99 2022 98 95 M M M 98 1992 98 90 97 95 90 98 1987 98 96 97 97 87 98 1962 98 94 96 93 87 98

The big question this week is where will the stationary front and training convection set up? Every model has a different location. So low skill forecast for any given location from Tuesday into Thursday.

A winter with near or below freezing temperatures and 50”+ of snow is getting more challenging for NYC. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Total Snowfall Oct 1 to Apr 30 DJF Temperature 1 1996-04-30 75.6 32.2 2 1948-04-30 63.9 30.0 3 2011-04-30 61.9 32.8 4 1923-04-30 60.4 29.9 5 1873-04-30 60.2 27.7 6 2014-04-30 57.4 32.9 7 1875-04-30 56.4 27.7 8 1899-04-30 55.9 31.5 9 1961-04-30 54.7 31.7 10 1994-04-30 53.4 31.1 11 1907-04-30 53.2 31.1 12 1934-04-30 52.0 29.1 13 1967-04-30 51.5 34.1 14 2010-04-30 51.4 33.8 15 1978-04-30 50.7 30.3 - 1917-04-30 50.7 31.7 - 1916-04-30 50.7 32.4 16 2015-04-30 50.3 31.4 17 1893-04-30 49.4 28.6 18 2003-04-30 49.3 31.2

It would be great if some of this June blocking carried over to next winter like it did in 09-10. The west based block at 500 mb is more impressive this June than in 2009. But the ENSO state with the La Niña is much different this year. So even a fraction of that 09-10 winter blocking would be nice to see. That 09-10 winter was part of the big 3 El Niño modoki winters. The rare combo of a cold NYC winter with near 50”+ of snow in 02-03, 09-10, and 14-15.

Relative to the means, Christmas has been running much warmer than July 4th since 2014. Data for December 25 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1964-12-25 69 44 0.01 0.0 0 1982-12-25 68 40 0.02 0.0 0 2014-12-25 64 41 0.10 0.0 0 2015-12-25 63 54 0.03 0.0 0 2020-12-25 62 28 0.66 0.0 0 1940-12-25 61 32 0.00 0.0 0 1994-12-25 60 41 T 0.0 0 1979-12-25 59 47 0.37 0.0 0 1965-12-25 59 40 0.85 0.0 0 1936-12-25 57 36 0.00 0.0 0 2021-12-25 55 38 0.16 0.0 0 2008-12-25 55 33 0.11 0.0 0 1933-12-25 54 30 0.00 0.0 M 1932-12-25 54 43 0.16 0.0 M 1931-12-25 53 31 0.00 0.0 M 2016-12-25 52 34 0.00 0.0 0 Data for July 4 - NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Date Max Temperature Min Temperature Precipitation Snowfall Snow Depth 1949-07-04 105 74 0.08 0.0 0 2010-07-04 101 67 0.00 0.0 0 2002-07-04 100 81 0.00 0.0 0 1966-07-04 100 78 0.00 0.0 0 1999-07-04 99 79 T 0.0 0 2012-07-04 97 73 0.05 0.0 0 1993-07-04 97 74 0.00 0.0 0 1990-07-04 97 71 0.00 0.0 0 1955-07-04 97 73 0.00 0.0 0 1983-07-04 96 79 0.00 0.0 0 1974-07-04 95 76 0.00 0.0 0 1957-07-04 95 70 T 0.0 0 2003-07-04 94 67 0.00 0.0 0 2011-07-04 92 71 0.00 0.0 0 2013-07-04 91 76 0.00 0.0 0 1952-07-04 91 67 1.07 0.0 0 1987-07-04 90 73 0.00 0.0 0 1984-07-04 90 70 T 0.0 0 1977-07-04 90 66 0.00 0.0 0 1965-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0 1948-07-04 90 65 0.00 0.0 0

First model guess for the July 4th weekend is a continuation of the June pattern. The heat ridge remains to our west. Some hint of the trough holding on near New England.