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bluewave

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  1. Very strong La Niña background state continuing with the record July heat and Southeast Ridge. So a continuation of these record subtropical ridges. The models have frequently been underestimating the heat and ridging in the East.
  2. I think that the 09-10 and 10-11 winters were so phenomenal, that we just couldn’t sustain that level of historic snowfall production for 3 seasons in a row.
  3. I can see some -AO and -NAO overlap also. Like last 24-25 winter we had the -5 -AO drop in mid-February with the record snows in Montreal and Toronto. Similar strong drops in 20-21 and especially March 2018. The We all know about 2010 and the -AO -NAO intervals in 05-06 and of course 95-96. But again not sure about a one to one casual relationship as these features could be markers for another underling process. Perhaps related to the underlying forcing and Rossby wave breaking.
  4. I was able to find one relationship between La Ninas and ACE going back to 1950. Any Atlantic hurricane seasons with 160 ACE or higher like last year tended to have a +PNA December. Now I am not sure if there is any type of causal relationship involved. Could just be a marker. What I mean by this is that the high ACE and +PNA December are part of the same underlying process. It also worked out that the October MJO indicator also was reliable in 2017, 2020, and 2024. So the MJO is also part of the same underlying process at least in more recent years. Those years featured a MJO 5 above +2.70 in October before the December strong +PNA La Ninas mismatch. Atlantic hurricane season ACE above 160 and December +PNA during La Ninas 2005….245 ACE…..+1.38 …..December PNA 1995……227………….+0.92 2017……224…………..+0.89…..October MJO 5….+3.35 1950……211……………+0.02 1998……181……………-0.09 2020…..180…………..+1.58…..October MJO 5…..+2.81 1999……176………….+0.21 2010…..165…………..-1.78….+1.25 +PNA delayed until January 2024…..161………….+1.70….October MJO 5…….+2.76
  5. JFK has a shot at their first 80° July since 2010. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Jul Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 80.7 0 2 2011 79.8 0 3 2013 79.5 0 4 2025 79.3 6 - 2022 79.3 0 - 2020 79.3 0 5 2019 78.8 0 6 1999 78.7 0 - 1993 78.7 0 7 2016 78.6 0 - 1983 78.6 0 - 1949 78.6 0 8 2015 78.4 0 - 2012 78.4 0 9 1994 78.1 0 10 1955 78.0 0 11 2024 77.8 0 - 2023 77.8 0 - 2002 77.8 0 12 1995 77.7 0 13 1952 77.6 0 14 2008 77.3 0 - 1981 77.3 0 15 1971 77.2 0
  6. Stronger ridge now so the heatwave has been extended to Wednesday.
  7. It’s the first time this summer that the GFS is running warmer than the Euro. The GFS has 100° heat from Monday to Wednesday. But the Euro only gets to 100° on Wednesday.
  8. Unfortunately, the upcoming heatwave looks like another where the urban corridor will be 90° at 11pm after getting near 100° during the day.
  9. Yeah, easily the worst air quality of July so far here just east of HVN. Jul 26, 11:20 am 84 61 45 84 NE 8 4.00 Haze
  10. Many areas in the East have also seen a steady increase in 90° days over the years. In the old days it was rare for areas to reach 40 days of 90°. Now it’s occurring much more frequently.
  11. Yeah, we were discussing this prospect a few weeks ago when this new paper was released. The authors have been interviewed about their findings since then. The shift to persistent 500mb ridging and SST warming across the mid-latitude Pacific may be an inherent response to a warming world which the research indicated occurred in previous warming eras for the earth. If we continue to see this block of warming and 500mb ridging continuing into the 2030s, then the new model simulation that was run could be onto something. Time will tell. https://insideclimatenews.org/news/18072025/southwestern-drought-likely-to-continue-through-2100/ But in this case, the phenomenon can last far longer than the usual 30-year cycle of the PDO. But if, as we hypothesize, this is a forced change in the sea surface temperatures in the North Pacific, this will be sustained into the future, and we need to start looking at this as a shift, instead of just the result of bad luck.” Todd was able analyze drought conditions during the mid-Holocene period 6,000 years ago, a period in Earth’s history when the Northern Pacific warmed and the Southwestern U.S. experienced hundreds of years of drought. That led to a warming of the North Pacific that was similar to the PDO that drives drought in the Southwest, but in this case, the drying lasted for centuries. “As soon as we saw that, you know, we started thinking about what’s happening today,” Todd said. Using an ensemble of historical and future climate models forecasting climate and precipitation patterns until 2100, they found the PDO-like negative phase continues through this century. But unlike the mid-Holocene period’s warming, which was brought on by vegetation change, today’s is driven by greenhouse gas emissions. Certain models revealed that the change in the ocean pattern was less about vegetation absorbing solar radiation, Todd said, and more about warming in general. In many ways, Richter said, what people are seeing on the ground is outpacing science.
  12. This was the 5th 90° day of the season at Newark moving into 4th place on the all-time list. There were 4 NYC micronet stations which reached 100° also. So among the warmest stretches that our area has seen from late June into late July. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Highest number of 100° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1993 9 0 2 1949 8 0 3 2022 6 0 - 1953 6 0 4 2025 5 159 - 1988 5 0 - 1966 5 0 5 2011 4 0 - 2010 4 0 - 1955 4 0 - 1944 4 0 6 2012 3 0 - 2006 3 0 - 2005 3 0 - 2001 3 0 - 1999 3 0 - 1911 3 1 7 2024 2 0 - 2021 2 0 - 2013 2 0 - 2002 2 0 - 1997 2 0 - 1994 2 0 - 1991 2 0 - 1980 2 0 - 1977 2 0 - 1954 2 0 - 1948 2 0 - 1943 2 0 - 1936 2 0 - 1919 2 40 - 1901 2 4 - 1898 2 7 8 1995 1 0 - 1986 1 0 - 1982 1 0 - 1973 1 0 - 1963 1 0 - 1959 1 0 - 1957 1 0 - 1952 1 0 - 1937 1 0 - 1934 1 0 - 1933 1 0 - 1923 1 0 - 1918 1 38 - 1917 1 72 - 1913 1 6 - 1900 1 9 - 1881 1 18 13th St./16th / Alphabet City 99 78 85 108 78 80 41 0.09 14 1:50pm 6 2:35pm 21.3 160 Ave. / Howard Beach 95 75 83 110 75 85 54 0.08 28th St. / Chelsea 99 77 85 108 77 78 41 0.05 18 4:10pm 7 4:10pm 19.1 Astoria 100 78 86 109 78 74 40 0.00 16 3:45pm 7 3:45pm 19.5 Bensonhurst / Mapleton 97* 76* 82* 113* 76* 87* 49* 0.06 21.6 Bronx Mesonet 96 77 84 105 77 75 42 0.00 22 4:05pm 13 4:05pm 21.1 Brooklyn Mesonet 95 75 82 104 75 79 46 0.02 54 4:05pm 31 4:10pm 23.1 Brownsville 101 77 85 110 77 75 39 0.05 Corona 101 78 86 112 78 75 40 0.00 E 40th St. / Murray Hill 98 78 85 107 78 74 43 0.04 East River at Alphabet City Fresh Kills 99 75 82 110 75 96 43 0.44 48 4:00pm 27 4:00pm 20.8 Glendale / Maspeth 99 77 85 109 77 76 42 0.00 Gold Street / Navy Yard 98 76 84 107 76 80 43 0.04 26 3:55pm 14 3:55pm 22.8 Lefferts / South Ozone Park 94 76 84 107 76 77 49 0.00 Manhattan Mesonet 94 76 83 101 76 76 45 0.00 39 3:50pm 22 3:50pm 22.5 Newtown / Long Island City 97 78 85 106 78 75 43 0.00 22 3:50pm 10 3:50pm 20.9 Queens Mesonet 96 76 84 104 76 83 45 0.06 29 3:55pm 15 3:40pm 21.7 Queensbridge / Dutch Kills 99 78 86 110 78 74 41 0.01 19.0 Staten Island Mesonet 96 74 81 105 74 96 45 0.40 48 3:50pm 27 3:55pm 20.2 TLC Center 96 77 84 104 77 77 44 0.00 24 4:05pm 12 3:55pm 21.8 Tremont / Van Nest 102 78 87 112 78 73 37 0.00 22 4:10pm 10
  13. 2010 was a very rare year with some spots getting 50 inches of snow and 50 days reaching 90°.
  14. JFK will probably finish just behind 2010 for the highest average maximum temperature from 6-22 to 7-31. Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010-07-31 89.2 0 2 2025-07-31 86.8 7 3 2011-07-31 86.7 0 4 2019-07-31 86.5 0 - 1963-07-31 86.5 0 5 2020-07-31 86.1 0 - 2002-07-31 86.1 0 - 1966-07-31 86.1 0 - 1949-07-31 86.1 0
  15. The dewpoints still look elevated Monday into Tuesday before dropping a bit Wednesday. But not looking like a repeat of the nearly 100/80 experienced back in late June. It’s rare for us to ever really experience dry heat here like they get out West.
  16. The one consolation will be the 850s won’t be as high. So we probably max out 97° to 100° instead of the 102°-105° in late June. Plus it looks like the dew points will be lower than late June and today.
  17. Yeah, unfortunately more major 95°-100° heat next week as the long range models underestimated the ridge again. New run Old run
  18. Nice drop from 93° to 84° here with the thunderstorm.
  19. Mika Rantanen ‪@mikarantane.bsky.social‬ Follow Historically long heatwave taking place in Finnish Lapland. Today marks the 15th consecutive day with the maximum temperature over 25 °C in Sodankylä Tähtelä. Such a long heatwave has not happened before in Lapland, at any station. en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi/local-weathe... Weather in Tähtelä, Sodankylä - Finnish Meteorological Institute Weather Tähtelä, Sodankylä - Weather forecast in Finland and abroad. Weather observations in Finland. en.ilmatieteenlaitos.fi July 25, 2025 at 3:32 AM
  20. It’s interesting that none of those great Arctic outbreaks of the 1800s could rival February 1934 at Newark. Was the only -14° low temperature and the coldest month at 18.6° since 1843. The only time Newark may have been colder was back in January 1780 when there was a -16° report in NYC. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Dec through Feb Lowest Temperatures Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1933-1934 -14 0 2 1917-1918 -13 2 - 1865-1866 -13 11 - 1858-1859 -13 11 3 1872-1873 -12 9 - 1856-1857 -12 7 4 1903-1904 -10 0 5 1898-1899 -9 5 6 1984-1985 -8 0 - 1860-1861 -8 5 - 1854-1855 -8 8 - 1851-1852 -8 5 7 1981-1982 -7 0 - 1942-1943 -7 0 - 1880-1881 -7 9 - 1855-1856 -7 6 8 1911-1912 -6 1 9 1913-1914 -5 1 - 1895-1896 -5 4 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Coldest Month of Jan Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1918 20.1 3 2 1977 20.9 0 3 1857 21.1 5 4 1893 21.5 3 5 1865 21.7 8 6 1904 21.8 0 7 1856 22.3 2 8 1912 22.9 0 - 1867 22.9 0 9 1920 23.0 11 10 1884 23.5 11 - 1875 23.5 4 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Coldest Month of Feb Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1934 18.6 0 2 1868 21.3 4 3 2015 22.6 0 4 1875 22.7 2 5 1907 22.8 4 6 1905 23.2 0 7 1979 23.5 0 8 1901 23.9 0 - 1885 23.9 7 9 1904 24.0 0 10 1936 24.4 0
  21. The July -PDO will be one of the lowest we have seen as the record marine heatwave near Japan continues.
  22. The last cool summer here was in 2014. But it wasn’t as cool as 2009 which had the coolest June and July since the 1940s. Our summers switched to much warmer and 2010. So there have been no cool summers with 15 or lower 90° days since the 15-16 baseline jump in temperatures. We would frequently get a few warmer summers followed a much cooler one. Now it’s all well above the historical 90° norms with no cool summers anymore. As you can see on the charts below, we had plenty of those cooler summers in the 1940s and 1950s. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1967 7 0 2 1996 9 0 3 1985 11 0 4 1982 12 0 - 1975 12 0 - 1946 12 0 7 2004 13 0 8 2009 14 0 - 1962 14 0 - 1956 14 0 11 2014 15 0 - 1976 15 0 - 1969 15 0 - 1960 15 0 - 1942 15 0 - 1940 15 0 Coldest June-July since 1940Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 1940-07-31 71.5 0 2 2009-07-31 71.6 0 3 1947-07-31 71.7 0 4 1958-07-31 72.2 0 - 1946-07-31 72.2 0 5 1945-07-31 72.4 0 6 1956-07-31 72.5 0 7 1985-07-31 72.8 0 8 1951-07-31 72.9 0 - 1950-07-31 72.9 0 - 1941-07-31 72.9 0 9 2000-07-31 73.0 0 10 1967-07-31 73.1 0 - 1962-07-31 73.1 0 - 1948-07-31 73.1 0 - 1942-07-31 73.1 0
  23. The bar on March has been set pretty low this decade. This is the first decade so far with under 1” average from Philly to Boston. Elevation has been the key as the coastal plain has been too warm. Monthly Total Snowfall for Philadelphia Area, PA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 0.0 0.0 2023 T T 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 0.0 0.0 2020 0.0 0.0 Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.1 0.1 2025 0.0 0.0 2024 T T 2023 0.1 0.1 2022 0.4 0.4 2021 T T 2020 T T Monthly Total Snowfall for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx) Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Mean 0.5 0.5 2025 T T 2024 T T 2023 0.9 0.9 2022 2.1 2.1 2021 0.1 0.1 2020 T T
  24. Those summers were pretty far down on the list compared to the summers since 2010. Nothing back then compared to the type of heat we have been seeing regularly in recent years. We would get a warmer summer followed by a much cooler one. We haven’t had a much cooler summer like the ones which were frequent in the 1940s and 1950s since 2009. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Jan through Dec 90° days Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. 1 2010 54 0 2 2022 49 0 - 1993 49 0 3 1988 43 0 4 2021 41 0 - 2002 41 0 - 1991 41 0 5 2016 40 0 - 1983 40 0 - 1959 40 0 6 1994 39 0 - 1944 39 0 7 2005 37 0 - 1987 37 0 8 2018 36 0 - 1949 36 0 9 2015 35 0 10 1961 34 0 11 2024 33 0 - 2012 33 0 - 1999 33 0 - 1995 33 0 - 1966 33 0 12 1955 32 0 - 1953 32 0 - 1943 32 0 13 2020 31 0 - 2011 31 0 - 1973 31 0 - 1952 31 0
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