bluewave

It would be a first for 60° around New Years following single digits so close to Christmas. The only Christmas Eve or Christmas in the single digits to ever go over 50° on New Year’s Eve or day was 1989. So we have already gone colder than 1989 around Christmas. This year could be the greatest Christmas to New years warm up on record. Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Lowest Min Temperature Dec 24 to Dec 25 Dec31 to Jan 1 highest Max Temperature 1 1980-12-25 -1 28 2 1983-12-25 4 32 - 1872-12-25 4 38 4 1883-12-25 7 37 5 1989-12-25 9 53 - 1960-12-25 9 44 - 1896-12-25 9 46

Caribou is usually below 0° when NYC gets into the single digits but the SW flow is keeping them at 20° instead. CARIBOU CLOUDY 20 11 68 SW12G22 Central Park CLEAR 7 -8 50 MISG

MARTHAS VNYRD SNOW 17 13 84 W14G20 29.65R VSB 1/2 WCI 3 $

Sea smoke and localized blizzard conditions south of Long Island in that 30 DBZ squall.

NYC is just 1° off the record low which hasn’t happened in late December since the 1980s. 12/23 -1 in 1883 6 in 1989 8 in 2022+ 12/24 6 in 1983 7 in 2022 7 in 1872 12/25 -1 in 1980 4 in 1983 4 in 1872 12/26 3 in 1914 6 in 1872 8 in 1983+ 12/27 6 in 1872 7 in 1914 8 in 1989+ 12/28 8 in 1917 10 in 1933 10 in 1880+ 12/29 -6 in 1917 -3 in 1933 4 in 1880 12/30 -13 in 1917 -6 in 1933 -6 in 1880 12/31 -7 in 1917 -3 in 1880 4 in 1962

This was the first 50° drop in 24 hrs for our area in December. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=169&network=NJ_ASOS&zstation=EWR&hours=24&month=dec&dir=cool&how=exact&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

Several local stations will set the new record soon for the largest December calendar day temperature drop. https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu/plotting/auto/?_wait=no&q=139&network=NY_ASOS&zstation=LGA&v=largest&month=dec&_r=t&dpi=100&_fmt=png

This looks like a super La Niña atmospheric response with the +55 SOI and strong +EPO -PNA SE Ridge pattern by later next week.

Getting some light ocean effect snow now in SW Suffolk and 26°.

Gusted close to 80 mph near Buffalo earlier today on the skyway bridge. https://operations.nysmesonet.org/~nbassill/live/index.php?stid=SKYWAY

That’s incorrect. The SE Ridge linking up with the -AO occurred before the shortwave entered the US. Notice the TPV is in the same location north of Montana. So it wasn’t caused by the TPV digging more. New run Old run

Gusting near 60 mph at JFK.

8.45 was above Irene and below Sandy. 1) 10.12 ft on 10/29/2012(2) 7.35 ft on 08/28/2011

Yeah, a slowing Gulf Stream warms the waters off the East Coast and cools the SSTs south of Greenland.

The much warmer Gulf Stream circulation to our east looks like the reason the SE Ridge is linking up with the -AO more often. The Pacific side is nearly identical to the colder storm track run from last Thursday. So that leaves the models underestimating the SE Ridge influence from 8-10 days out. New run Old run

Impressive squall line for late December.

Gusts in excess of 60 mph possible near the South Shore with the cold front as we get some deeper mixing this afternoon.

We needed one of the most positive December +PNA patterns on record in 2020 to overcome that south based block and produce the double digit snowstorm in NYC.

Yeah, this is also the first December with an AO reading of -4 or lower to link up with the SE Ridge. Decembers in -4 or lower daily AO composite 2010…2009…2000…1995…1978…1976…1968…1966…1963…1962…1950 https://ftp.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/cwlinks/norm.daily.ao.index.b500101.current.ascii

High tide in Freeport came in above the Irene levels. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=okx&gage=frpn6

Could be the strongest seiche on record for Lake Erie. Intense winds behind the cold front today will produce a SIGNIFICANT seiche event on Lake Erie which will rival the highest lake levels ever experienced. Sustained winds to at least 45 knots with frequent gusts over storm force in the central and eastern basin will push the lake level well above flood stage at Buffalo. Once the winds start ramping up this morning there will be a very rapid rise in the Lake Erie water level at the eastern end of the basin. Lake Erie water levels at Buffalo are expected to reach peak between 9 am today morning and 3 am Saturday morning, with the potential for lakeshore flooding continuing through Saturday. Peak lake levels exceeding 11 feet above low water datum at Buffalo are almost certain, with even the potential to exceed 12 feet looking quite likely. If this were to happen it would be near or even break the previous high lake level at Buffalo set back on 12/2/1985 of 12.08 feet above of low water datum. For historical perspective, peak winds for that event reached 66 mph, with this event we are looking at peak gusts at or exceeding these speeds. Only question is the actual level of the lake itself. The lake currently is at 2.5 feet above low water datum at Buffalo which is just under a foot above the long term monthly mean for December. The two most recent highest events at Buffalo were 11.12 feet on 11/15/2020 and 10.6 feet on 11/1/2019.

A record breaking 12 consecutive years with 55+ within 5 days of December 20th. Newark reached a high of 58° earlier. Many top 3 warmest daily temperature records set over this period. This has become the fastest warming period in December. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Ending Date Highest Max Temperature Dec 15 to Dec 25 Missing Count 2022-12-25 58 2 2021-12-25 65 0 2020-12-25 62 0 2019-12-25 57 0 2018-12-25 61 0 2017-12-25 57 0 2016-12-25 59 0 2015-12-25 71 0 2014-12-25 64 0 2013-12-25 71 0 2012-12-25 57 0 2011-12-25 62 0 12/15 68 in 2015 67 in 2008 63 in 2001 12/16 65 in 2021 65 in 1971 62 in 1982 12/17 66 in 2000 62 in 2021 60 in 1992+ 12/18 64 in 1937 61 in 2006 61 in 1984 12/19 60 in 1931 58 in 1967 57 in 2017+ 12/20 61 in 2002 61 in 1957 60 in 1999 12/21 64 in 2013 62 in 2011 61 in 2018+ 12/22 71 in 2013 65 in 1998 64 in 1949 12/23 67 in 1990 66 in 2015 63 in 1949+ 12/24 71 in 2015 64 in 1990 63 in 1996 12/25 69 in 1964 68 in 1982 64 in 2014

Major coastal flooding in Freeport with water rescues underway. https://water.weather.gov/ahps2/hydrograph.php?wfo=okx&gage=frpn6

Some gusts to around 55 mph with the downed trees. Norwalk Harbor N/A 54 N/A N/A SE44G55