SchaumburgStormer

3 minutes ago, Sciascia said:

Here’s the final frame of the 12z NAM:

Same general look as the Euro. Liking the model agreement. 

22 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Wondering if it's having convective feedback issues

Must be. A 986 deepening low sitting over Carbondale, but barely throwing precip to Champaign seems off. 

5 minutes ago, StormChaser4Life said:

Definitely would think with a system that dynamic that deformation band would change to solid snow in the heavy precip. Hopefully sampling soon will help models resolve this. 

Also devoid of precip for a good amount of time. Really strange evolution 

#ChefsKiss

A little bit more spread, but more members are joining the NW camp. 

OP run was fucky, so let hope the ensembles hold serve. 

2 minutes ago, ChiTownSnow said:

Struggling to get out of the Rockies

Has the low just ping ponging around the the texas states to, but has it at 983 over evansville, IN at 123.... then to IND... Then to Gary. lol

18Z GFS doing some weird shit with low location/precip depiction, but it appears to be north of the 12z run. 

Let’s get 8” of 6:1 down and freeze it into a glacier that will last till may. 

Euro with the classic OKC to STL to FWA path with a deepening low. Classic N IL big dog look. 

Full range of outcomes on the table. Fun having something to track again. 
 

12z Euro is going to amped

5mb deeper than GFs and north at 111

Not at all a bad look. Lots of good members for a big Chi hit. 

2 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

It's been years since we've seen a nw trend or a storm actually strengthen to the degree the models are showing. Models have gotten tendencies to over amp storms so anything is on the table, from a sub 980 tracking over chicago to 990 tracking over pittsburgh. Either way this low pressure is impressive on satellite and causing high winds in alaska.

Seems like in the past few years that about the time we got good sampling, the models began their trend back down to strung out shit. If we still have a strong storm on the table 12z/18z saturday, I will start to feel good about it for someone. 

1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

Look gang it's either gonna trend to shit or bounce back in a couple days and be stronger so tap into that self-restraint we all definitely have and hold tight

Stop coming at me with that logic and shit. I want to live and die by model runs 130+ hours out. 

2 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

980's apps runner 

Or... As is tradition... "South, weaker"

1 hour ago, nwohweather said:

Damn that's a beast of a storm, but the track is a tad unbelievable at the moment. Arkansas-Indy-Toledo on a storm bombing out? If it really enters the lower GL at around 975 MB then I'd expect more of a South Bend-Lansing low track

12z GFS going to keep that general path, not real robust with precip on the NW. 

Not worth getting too into the details until saturday afternoon-ish, but its a failure path for a lot of folks. 

00z euro going to be a Chicago crush job. Man hope one of these stronger solutions plays out for someone

9 minutes ago, WestMichigan said:

18z GFS is about as good as it gets for the next 2 weeks for a good chunk of the subforum.  Pretty good spread the wealth with the exception of maybe the far northern parts of Minnesota and Wisconsin.

Yep. For having maps that had no snow through the entire run, this is a solid look. 

18z GFS would have I-55 and north under a foot of snow by a week from Friday. Talk about a pattern switch. 

GFS tossing more drool worthy stuff for IL. I would love to get this one, like the old times, where the NAM is throwing us just stupid clown maps within 24 hours. 
 

But again, we’ve seen this game before. If we follow the multi-season trend, we have about 48 more hours of model enjoyment before every post becomes “south/flatter/weaker”. 
 

1 hour ago, Sciascia said:

Pretty good representation of all the OP run solutions we have seen over the past few days.

Euro would have alek posting the eurythmics while SE Iowa to NW IL get smoked. Most of LOT would do solid. 
 

Models have been rug pulling for so long that it’s tough to buy in at this range, agreement or not. 
 

edit- forgot the image

4 hours ago, Chinook said:

a year ago

 

Was CRUSHED with 1.7” out of that WSW 

9 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

As has been mentioned, we are heading into a significant pattern change. Changes on the large scale really start to appear this weekend and into the beginning of this upcoming week. This new pattern, which may very well evolve over time, will extend through the first 1/3rd of January, and quite possibly the first 1/2 of January.

Two big changes that we are seeing right off the bat and that have already begun are a progression of the MJO into the colder phases and a stratospheric warming event. The MJO recently entered the COD, after being in low-amplitude warmer phases from the very end of November through the first 2/3rds of December. The trip through those warmer phases is one of several reasons (Raging Pac Jet is another) that we have been stuck in a consistently mild (Sometimes very mild) regime. The MJO has now entered a colder phase, low amplitude phase 8, and is expected to make a trip at lower amplitude roughly through colder phases 1-2 over the next 1-2 weeks. Another thing that we will be watching unfold is stratospheric warming. This event is expected to disrupt the main SPV placement and strength during the potentially 1-3 week event. As is usually the case, any effects of the SSWE will not be seen right away; that is something to keep an eye on from around week 2 in January through early February.

As mentioned above, there are a few reasons we have been seeing consistently mild (Sometimes very mild) conditions over the past several weeks. The raging Pacific jet is one of those bigger reasons. The Pacific jet is expected to break down soon, with increased troughy-ness (Wave breaks) developing. Canadian ridging, which will retrograde from Central to Western Canada and eventually Alaska, will also tend to lower Pacific influence as well.

Getting beyond the MJO, SSW and Pac jet... We are likely to see a fairly consistent flow of waves/disturbances/troughs enter the CONUS along the West Coast, originating from the deep/mean trough from the Aleutians down into the Northeast Pacific. This is characterized by the lower-height anomalies from the Northeast Pacific and then across the southern 2/3rds or so of the CONUS. Additionally, with the Pacific jet breaking down and the retrograding ridging in Canada, this will lead to generally cooler/colder conditions overall than have been seen, with an airmass origin more often than not from the Northeast Pacific to Pole regions.

All in all, with this pattern change...
-While it may not be super/hyper active, there will be a steady stream of disturbances that traverse the CONUS. Will they all turn into something interesting? No. But having a feed is a start.
-It is very clearly not going to be as significantly/consistently as mild as it has been. That's not to say there won't be any bouts of mild temperatures, but what we have been seeing will be in the past for now.
-The chances for wintry storm potential are not amazing, but definitely an improvement compared to much of the past 1-2 months.

Top notch. Appreciate the insight as always. Nice break to the “warm” and “ban him” bickering. 

Made it down to 12 last night. With the recent "warmth" the air had a bit more bite than expected when I walked outside today.