SchaumburgStormer

53 minutes ago, andyhb said:

12z Euro still has that slider/weaker look. Looks to track close to Cleveland.

Not a bad problem to have when the "slider/weaker" look is a 985 low sliding into the OV. 

20 minutes ago, Imneversatisfied said:

Im contemplating firing mine up altho it last ran two months ago not years lol so I'm not too worried. Plus I work on small engines and love snow so my blowers (yes I have 2) are àll tuned up and ready. Just don't wanna jinx anything now!

Btw if you couldn't get it started,try taking the spark plug out,clean the end with wire brush and spray starting fluid,carb,cleaner,or a put a few drops of gas in the plug hole,put plug back in and it should fire and prime the fuel system. Good luck. Shoveling sucks.

Thank you. Mine also has been sitting for two years and it is on my list this afternoon to get running. 

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

this is your moment 

Lets goooo

Euro is south as well. Going to be real nice for N IL

edit: well it started a bit further south, then ends up a touch N

6 minutes ago, glacier said:

12z HRRR is moneybags.

3 minutes ago, TravisWx said:

NE lower MI still appears like it's going to take the brunt of the snowfall this storm. 3km NAM 12z

 

10:1 is worthless for this storm. 

970mb over DTW. Sign me up. Absolute crush job for most of the mitten. 

12Z GFS with a sig blizz for most of us. 

12z GFS looking $$$

Just now, Stebo said:

I think that back in the day it was much better and people remember the wins, but it never really got much better since then while the GFS has actually gotten much better over time.

Yeah, I just still have a bitter taste for the winter after the GFS "upgrade" recently where it was a steaming pile of dogshit. It gave me trust issues, lol

5 minutes ago, Stebo said:

Yep, this is exactly what I was talking about. The lack of smoothing because everything is ultra concise, you can sometimes amplify errors.

The classic butterfly effect. 

I also think that the Euro had a couple big wins way back that then pumped its rep. We seem to remember the wins on the big storms and forget the misses, so it was easy to hold it to its "king" moniker. Now that the competition has caught up, its deficiencies become glaring. 

Will be real interesting to see which model handles the upcoming storm the best.

12z NAM gets the rain/snow line to roughly I-55. Really nice storm from a Galesburg to Waukegan line or so. 12Z HRRR is similar. Feeling solid on my call right now. 

Euro bombing to 973 in central Indiana. Goes from 990 to 973 in 9 hours. Wow. 

NAM caved south. More in line with the euro 

12z euro much improved for I-80 north in IL. Much better E-W spread  

1 hour ago, Harry Perry said:

Anyone notice the 12z HRRR? Maybe I’m late to the game but… final image of the run 12z Tuesday. 980 with lowering heights directly east. Moving nearly ENE through central Missouri into south central Illinois.
 

Euro suddenly onboard with that idea as well

1 minute ago, King James said:

The last few years it seems like the models aren’t all that useful too far out and it comes down to the last 48 hours 

 

I get that impression from following you all. I know you guys know what you’re talking about but I think the models are not so reliable 

Either way, weather is still fun 

Well we haven’t had to be real concerned about the “NW trend” for the past 5+ years, but it appears that it may be a thing again this pattern/winter 

Fucking A, didn’t think I would be sweating the NW trend on this one but it’s getting dicey 

18z euro isn’t a bad solution for most of NW LOT. No real break between the waves so you have 24-27 hours of snow stacking to 8” or so 

Gfs wants to make sure LOT has to sweat it’s forecast and headlines till the bitter end.

If this is like the old school wrapped up lows, we will see a NW over correction that then comes back to the SE as we get closer. 

Euro cranking up a monster too

Would love to see an old school NAM clown map for that kind of storm 

GFS going weenie wet dream 

Gfs a bit juicier too. Guidance is really showing that def band cranking once it arrives. +SN and the winds could have us talking the B word.