CoolHandMike

Maybe I'm looking at it wrong, but I see zero indication of any rotation in the relative storm velocity. It actually looks like it glitched out for a few frames, I'm wondering if that automatically triggered the warning?

I mean, look at it: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/index.php?type=DIX-N0S-1-48

It's just wacky

33° F and pouring. What a winter. I mean, I consider myself a foul weather aficionado, but this is pretty sad for what should be the heart of our climo winter. I am seeing patches of rain/snow mix on the radar but so far nothing but rain here.

1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ask the regulars here. I did a paper on this a few years ago. It is a real thing and rarely (6%) fails. I see no reason we wont see some flakes at some point over the next 5 days. Whether it amounts to anything is tbd.

 

I wouldn't mind a gander at that myself. Care to share? I can request on Researchgate if that helps (and if it's posted there .

36 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Was going to post about the Sat-Sun snow threat anyway but we are sitting at 61F and a Wiggum Rule is in effect, so the weekend has legs. Rule is 60 or higher at KDYL during heart of winter yields some form of snow during the following 5 days. Research increased percentage of this working out since I began the study to a robust 94% success. 

All guidance save the CMC on board for a few inches Saturday night with the EPS being most aggressive. Potent shortwave swings under us. Fast mover but probably the best potential of the season for many here.

The window is likely going to produce!

I sure hope you're right. We hit 60 here yesterday afternoon according to my unofficial back-yard thermometer, which is actually reading 64 right now...

Spent the morning clearing brush from the horse trail behind my parents' house with a tractor and chainsaw. Don't know about you guys, but I am absolutely loving this cold and grey weather. Could be snowier, but I'll take this over any summer day, period.

Looking forward to wxsim saying 4-6 feet of snow next weekend.

What a lovely day of tracking foul weather with you lot. Here's hoping for many more opportunities to do the same before spring! 

Looks like all ZR here, too. Now with a little bit of wind mixing in.

6 minutes ago, Hurricane Agnes said:

Just came in from measuring and all the snow has stopped here (and there's no precip at the moment so overcast). Got 1.2" total so far.  Temp is 25 with dp up to 19.  Not sure what is coming next but something is!

After a lull, I'm hearing the sleet picking up again. 

Pingers here. Temp back up to 30.

Temps peaked at around 30 here but now it's back down to 28 or so. Snowing steadily again, roads were clear but now are covered again.

Looks like it's stopped here. Sky is considerably brighter.

Just now, penndotguy said:

yup brine only helps to keep the snow from binding to the road surface, keep from packing 

That makes sense. Guess I'm just used to our usual, borderline 32° snow-to-rain events. This is a nice change from that.

Roads don't look to have been treated too well. I think they brined too soon? (saw the brining on the roads on Thursday) I mean, I know it didn't wash off but still. Picture outside my office looking down at a fairly major 2-lane road:

Untreated surfaces covered. Didn't take long. Small flakes. Temp 26°F and dewpoint 7°F, nice to have snow with temps well below freezing and low dewpoints.

Dark band right over me and few few flakes making it to the ground.

Sky looks menacingly dark to the west. Doesn't have that "snow sky" look to it; more like a spring-time storm front.

21 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

Latest WXSIM with 6z - looks like WXSIM is winning for now the great battle vs NWS temp wise....NWS has now moved my P&C to 32 degree high - WXSIM still colder.

Today: Dense overcast. A slight chance of a mix of snow and sleet in the
 morning, then sleet likely in the afternoon. High 27. Wind south near calm in
 the morning, becoming 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation 70
 percent. Precipitation (liquid equivalent) mostly between a quarter and half an
 inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation about half an inch.
 
 Tonight: Dense overcast in the evening, becoming cloudy after midnight, with
 scattered light frost possible. A mix of snow and sleet likely in the evening,
 then a slight chance of freezing rain after midnight. Low 25, but temperatures
 rising after midnight. Wind chill ranging from 16 to 24. Wind south-southwest
 around 9 mph. Chance of precipitation 80 percent. Precipitation (liquid
 equivalent) mostly around half an inch. Snow or ice (on ground) accumulation 2
 to 3 inches. Little if any freezing rain accumulation.

Wasn't WXSIM calling for upwards of 12" several days ago? What is it's track record regarding forecasts? Seems foolhardy to me to give it any credence if it's that far off only a few days in advance. Not trolling, asking honestly. Obviously we all want more snow and we all want the medium- to long-range forecasts to be more accurate, but that seems kind of ridiculous to me.

3 minutes ago, Lady Di said:

I’ll take an hour of snow and like it!

Could always move to Newfoundland. LOL

21 degrees New Garden Twp. 

25.5°F and 43% RH about 15 miles north of Avondale, give or take. I'm also at about 450' ASL. When I moved back here in '09 with my SoCal-raised wife, I told her that this is the type of winter we usually had growing up, and then we got hit with the epic '09 and '10 winters, so she didn't believe me. But now that we've had more than a few years of mediocre winters in a row, she gets it.

She got hooked on lots of snow during those years and now we ultimately want to move somewhere more north. Somewhere with a real, consistent winter. NFL sounds nice.

9 minutes ago, ChescoPaWxman said:

WXSIM with 12z data again ticked a bit colder and a little more snow/sleet accumulation with a bit earlier start time - total snow sleet 3.5" to 4.5"

Here is the rundown:

• 10am snow arrives temp (22.2)
• 1pm Moderate IP (23.6)
• 4pm Heavy IP (23.4)
• 7pm Heavy Snow (23.6)
• Snow ends around 8pm

So it's looking like we'll stay well below freezing for this entire event? Nice.

64°F and 82% humidity at midnight. I wonder if that line of storms will make it here.  

15 minutes ago, anotherman said:

In February of ‘94 I was at Penn State Altoona. The entire state of Pennsylvania was under a state of emergency and Penn State closed (that never used to happen). I will never forget I went to get gas and the pumps didn’t work. It was -20.

I remember there was a massive, pitched snowball battle on main campus. I also remember all the cars being completely buried. It was epic.

11 minutes ago, Birds~69 said:

Sticking to cartops/grass/rooftops....mod snow. No stickage on roads.

Same. 35.6°F here.

Had some brief flurries here, too. Super nice to wake up to on New Year's.

Just cold and rain here, no glazing at all. 34°F.