Jump to content

CoolHandMike

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    1,561

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by CoolHandMike

    E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

    oh its coming  like i said earlier wam bam thank you mam. 2 inches - no way 1 inch remote possibility  likely .60 in of rain. keep the spring flowers budding and green up some grass areas. No drought buster for sure.  I am waiting for the comments of a 3-6+ in  snow event in less than 10 days on both the GFS and CMC  evening runs ---what a joke

    man I stopped checking for digital snow on the GFS like a month ago. It's all fake news. Pretty to look at, and ponder at, but never real.

    • Like 1

    E PA/NJ/DE Spring 2025 Obs/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    2 hours ago, LVLion77 said:

    The nowcast is trending negative for getting much rain in eastern PA. Hope we see some development. We desperately need a solid 1”-2” rainfall.

    I feel like nowcasting is the only way to see how things pan out these days. Forecasts have been utter rubbish for (checks notes...) years now? Yeesh. No disrespect to our prof mets, but yeah. Rain all afternoon today? Nope. Ten degrees lower than forecasted yesterday. Countless model-predicted snows this winter and nothing. Something is deeply amiss in our ability to forecast weather with any kind of accuracy these days.

     

    I feel like all we can do at this point is watch the radar and try to see what's going to happen in the next couple of hours. Forget being able to see anything long-term, other than painting really, really broad strokes.

    That said... I am somewhat concerned with the radar at the moment:

    image.png

    E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion

    in Philadelphia Region

    Posted

    32 minutes ago, Albedoman said:

    First 3-6 inches of the soil is  called the A- horizon which has had a temporary permafrost and will easily become muddy once the soils are above 36 degrees.  That is what you are seeing now. If you dug down below 6 inches, the soils are still frozen with what little moisture we received from the New Years t storms. Once you get down below the B- Horizon 1-2 feet - it is dry as  a bone. . Red Sky is right- we need significant long duration rain events of 3-5 inches over several weeks when the the B- horizon is not frozen. to put a dent in the drought. That usually does not happen until mid march, especially after an extremely cold winter that we had thus far.  A week of 50-60 degree weather will aid  in thawing out the  soil profile, especially with rain showers or even fog.

    By the way, we will most likely get another accumulating snow storm in the next two weeks based on my previous observations from the winter of 2020. Mr Raccoon wiped out my feeder last night of food. I sat there and watch him go to town.  He knows there something brewing since that was the last time I saw him at my squirrel feeder.  Beware of the ides of March LOL

    My high IMBY was 47.8°F today, and 44 the day before. My top soil is dry AF. We're still super dry up here in Reading.

    FWIW, we got near to an inch of liquid precip (snow melt+rain) last Sunday, and my basement sump started cycling almost as soon as the snow started melting. I would have thought that if the ground was deeply frozen that all of that would have run off, but our extremely localized groundwater flow has seemingly been forever altered by our massive flooding rains in July 2023, so who knows what is actually happening down there.

    As much as I'd love one last, good snow storm, I agree, we still need rain and lots of it. Although, maybe not another flooding event. I think there are still some roads closed from that previous event I mentioned (due to bridges still being washed out).

×
×
  • Create New...