Stebo

Newberry in the UP 50 right now, 100 miles ESE Rogers City 82.

70 at DTW 75 at DET, quite a spread there. So far we have stopped at 70 though at DTW.

And broken, 00z sounding tonight 76/70 at the surface.

DTW has never had a low of 70 for October. Forecast of 67 tonight, we shall see.

80/71 currently, it is a bit thick outside...

I'll take the over at this point, models tend to correct warmer especially with cold that significant. I remember the last cold blast being that we were going to barely hit 50, ended up much warmer than that, just seasonally cool nights.

Highs in the mid to upper 50s you mean.

Sounding climatology on SPC for DTX's CWA goes back to 1948 but it moved around a bit. First at Toledo to 1951 then MTC until 1956, Flint until 1994 then DTX from when that office was commissioned.

I know it wasn't DTX, but DTW maxed at 72 for the dewpoint today on the 5 min obs, which would have also destroyed the record for the month. No sounding has had a dewpoint over 70 before, it looks like we have more chances though this week.

SPC Sounding climatology and yeah probably a remnant tropical system would be my guess.

The sounding this evening had a PWAT of 1.79" which if my research is right the highest observed PWAT at DTX of all time for October.

Fine I'll bet a dollar if you are giving me 1 in a million odds.

If there was a way to give a negative chance of something happening, this would be it.

Cold falls especially cold early Octobers usually end up with warmer winters. As for activity, you want that soil moisture upstream from you for winter storms, so an active fall should be positive for winter.

78 for a high at 1250AM, down to 64 now.

Still at the high for the day, 77 degrees at 11:30pm.

This as well, which I find actually more incredible being in the south.

Peru and Pontiac both 90 right now.

I would agree with you, especially in a weak ENSO, the minimum's effects will be more noted.

DCA: +2.5 NYC: +2.7 BOS: +2.9 ORD: +1.5  ATL: +2.0 IAH: +1.0 DEN -0.5 PHX: -1.0 SEA: -1.8

0856 PM TSTM WND DMG GIBRALTER 42.09N 83.20W 09/25/2018 WAYNE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT POSSIBLE TORNADO. MULTIPLE TREES AND POWERLINES DOWN IN GIBRALTER.

0830 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNW MONROE 41.97N 83.42W 09/25/2018 MONROE MI EMERGENCY MNGR POSSIBLE TORNADO. 3 HOMES SUSTAINED SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE NEAR TOBEN RD AND SOUTH STONEY CREEK RD. HOMES ARE UNINHABITABLE. 0842 PM TSTM WND DMG 4 NNE MONROE 41.97N 83.36W 09/25/2018 MONROE MI LAW ENFORCEMENT POSSIBLE TORNADO. MONROE COUNTY CENTRAL DISPATCH REPORTED TREES AND WIRES DOWN IN FRENCHTOWN TOWNSHIP. 0844 PM TSTM WND DMG 8 NNE MONROE 42.02N 83.33W 09/25/2018 MONROE MI EMERGENCY MNGR POSSIBLE TORNADO. EXTENSIVE TREE DAMAGE BLOCKING ROADS NEAR LABO RD IN BERLIN TOWNSHIP.

Speaking of wet pattern 2.48" for the day. 5.97" for the month 9th wettest September on record at this point just behind 5.99" in 2008.

Would continue the extremely wet pattern if correct.