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Stebo

Meteorologist
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Everything posted by Stebo

  1. Stebo
    SREF plumes for DTW have a mean of 5" up from 3" on the 21z run.
  2. Stebo
    Their AFD is a bit light though same with GRR. Only talking 2-4" synoptic snow, I hope they don't get too caught up in climo and ignore the atmosphere itself.
  3. Stebo
    I'd love a repeat of 02-03s winter that is for sure.
  4. Stebo
    I would almost consider a watch and eventual warning for Southern Lower Michigan especially since this is the first snowfall of the year and may be heaviest around Monday Morning rush hour. If things continue to tick upward it would most certainly be warranted.
  5. Stebo
    Both NAMs have some wild enhancement/lake effect off of Lake Huron out this way. Don't think I have ever seen anything like that before, at least not in recent memory.
  6. Stebo
    Its .4 widespread for 12z and almost/past .5 on 18z liquid equivalent. Some places pushing over 6" across southern MI.
  7. Stebo
    No reason to change what isn't broken.
  8. Stebo
    Yeah 18z GFS trending toward foreign models.
  9. Stebo
    It is a step but still got a long ways to go.
  10. Stebo
    I see this event as been very similar to earlier in the week only south and the american models were grossly underdone with that event. This time around the frontogenesis should be even better with a stronger baroclinicity. Atmosphere should be really efficient at wringing out the moisture available.
  11. Stebo
    So does the Euro.
  12. Stebo
    DTX is pretty hype this afternoon.
  13. Stebo
    Solid trends for Southern Michigan over the last few days. Could be a solid advisory type snow
  14. Stebo
    I would say 50/50 here, mostly some hearty maples holding on.
  15. Stebo
    Yeah my posts were only in reference to the maps being posted not whether they'd verify. It isn't worth going that in depth on a day 10 forecast.
  16. Stebo
    It is very early for this kind of cold and suppression. Going from late summer to dead of winter with minimal snow isn't something appealing.
  17. Stebo
    Oh really? A trough centered over the eastern lakes isn't a cold and dry pattern? That is news to me. Sure you could end up with a dusty clipper or two but that isn't a favorable pattern for this subforum unless you are downwind of the lakes.
  18. Stebo
    We need that trough centered west unless you like cold and dry.
  19. Stebo
    Yep **** that
  20. Stebo
    Need that centered about 500 miles west otherwise cold and dry wins
  21. Stebo
    Straight snow now.
  22. Stebo
    Mixing in flakes here down to 36/33
  23. Stebo
    Now we are talking. I just hope we don't use up all that mojo too early.
  24. Stebo
    Also glad to see the storm wrapped up quicker and the GFS being wrong.
  25. Stebo
    I am kind of disappointed in the lack of photography in this thread with things going to pound town.
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