Stebo

Not to mention the weather apps and facebook groups galore. It's an uphill battle for sure. I mean at this point I have literally no confidence in this system and we are closing in on day 3 or less.

Unfortunately NWP experts are going to say their models are infallible and most of the times they aren't going to be using them to forecast day to day. We have seen better sampling make a huge difference especially in situations like this where you have so many moving parts. I mean we have monster storm in the northeast, the ridge behind it, how much confluence ends up behind it, 2 systems in Canada and the main system itself which doesn't want to figure out if it's coming out all at once or in pieces. I really feel for you guys in NWS on this one because there are like 5 different outcomes and all could be right. Hell there are even a few GEFS members that bring rain almost to here.

Went very strong with that shortwave across canada early on. That is going to be a major player with respect to height rises ahead of this system. Problem is it is in canada and its data sparse up there and unlike the main system, it isn't ever going to come into the US so that is going to be a question mark for a while.

When you get this close the ops have more merit. Still worthy to look at ensembles especially if they are dramatically different.

I'll wait for the 00z Euro but if it comes in like previous runs I think we could safely toss the GFS as being shit.

GFS is really struggling, getting slower and slower with the trough ejection and struggling with the low location. What a garbage model.

It is a bit wonky how it handles the vort max but definitely a step in the right direction.

Agreed, as it stands I don't expect a massive storm, but something respectable to low end warning in some places especially back in MO.

18z op GFS is drier than popcorn fart, but it doesn't compare to the GEFS which is on a whole much better with more moisture except for one ensemble. Although as someone noted the other day it isn't comparing apples to apples because the physical scheme of the GEFS hasn't been updated like the operational.

They could have summed that whole paragraph up with I don't know, instead of the massive word salad here.

Yeah, this is why I am not sold on anything up or down with this one except to watch the ensembles for trends as they take some of the noise out.

Oh I agree, all the models at this point are completely inconsistent. This is now the 3rd or 4th year in a row where we have had some what consistent models up to day 4-5, then model chaos for 2 days before converging back in the 48-72hr range. There is some issue in all the models collectively and my guess is with systems being in a data hole.

Strong moisture advection, along with strong positive vorticity advection as well. Problem is the Euro is leaving too dry of an atmosphere behind the front on Saturday. I don't buy dew points in the single digits or lower in its wake.

Euro is still way too light on the cold side of the system, also this run is stronger than the 06z run though not as good as the 00z run.

This needs to be cued up with the Super Mario mushroom sound.

DTX Next round of Pacific upper level energy/trough swinging through the Four Corners region on Sunday will spin up another low pressure system coming out of the southern Plains. This low looks to be tracking close to the Ohio River on Monday, presenting an opportunity for accumulating snow to impact southeast Michigan. Magnitude of the surface wave remains in question, as 00z Euro is a bit stronger and farther north compared GFS, but especially vs the flatter Canadian/Icon solutions. None-the-less, GFS ensemble members give the Euro plenty of support, and several members are even farther north and deeper. Euro indicating 3-4 g/kg of specific humidity in the 850-700 MB layer crossing the border which could support several inches with the proper mid level FGEN, even with less than ideal thermal profiles.

EPS is definitely north than 18z/12z runs also stronger, mean of 1002mb at 96hr.

That piece going through Canada is faster and flatter this run so makes sense for the change.

That piece that drops through Manitoba is screwing with things. That wasn't nearly as strong on previous runs.

Too much junk in the northern stream none of it phasing, just getting in the way.

Not really much bias lately.

Yeah it was definitely setting up for a long duration hit with that run, double barrel low with snow associated with WAA with the first low and the CCB with the second low.

I still think the Euro is grossly underdoing the cold sector precip with this one, no matter what the path ends up.

It is north of that, its between Indy and the River.

I disagree with that DTX AFD 100% and furthermore he is basing his forecast on 00z model suite, everything since then has trended north in the EPS and even GEFS to some degree.