Stebo

All but 5 track a low along the river or north. It is a very substantial shift north/stronger compared to previous runs.

The Euro could very well be right, but in your example it wasn't this close in that it was doing it, we are at day 4-4.5 right now.

Part of the reason why it is weaker is that it is leaving vorticity back in the southwest. No model is doing that and it is a known Euro bias. With a weaker ejection and trailing the vorticity in the southwest, the vort max is easier to shear out instead of coming out as a shortwave.

GRR The Monday system... The GFS has been forecasting this for nearly a week now and the ECMWF has since the 10th /00z run been bringing the storm closer to us on the operational runs. The 12/00z run brings snow to GRR from the ECMWF. Since this is polar closed upper low dropping south into and southern stream system, this could be power house storm. We will have to watch this closely. DTX Yet another system will then track near the southern Great Lakes from the four corners Monday and Monday night. GFS and ECMWF remain far apart with their solutions but the main story will be that a strong low may track through the Ohio Valley region which would put southern MI in the colder, deformation region of the low. Depending on how far north or south it tracks will determine how far north precipitation can reach and what ptype will occur. The piece of the jet that will be responsible for this storm isn`t set to reach the NW conus til Saturday night so may be some time before models really start converging on a track.

Yeah it's a step. Compared to other models it is on the weakest/furthest south envelope.

I mean it isnt even Christmas yet and you are Southern Indiana. Evansville only averages 12.1" and Cincinnati is around 16" I believe. Climo is pretty against you getting snow of significance in general let alone this year.

Euro out to 99 hours it should come north some this run the low over the Labrador is weaker this run leading to less confluence in the east along with a weaker high coming down its backside.

Gotta be one garbage model in the bunch.

You aren't kidding, hell some of the soundings for here have PWATs near .70 with an all snow profile.

More low centers north of the river/not in TN/MS/AL. Something to monitor for sure for a trend or just a blip.

What is your take on the Euro and its ensembles being notoriously dry with cold season precip in the cold sector of systems. Been noticing that since the upgrade before last winter.

Euro has had moisture issues since the last update before last winter, so this isn't surprising to see the differences.

The warning is showing up on GR2 and Radarscope which is pretty cool.

Above normal for all the major cities in the east, color me shocked. He should just issue this forecast every year September 1st.

It has been wet and seasonably mild that's about it. Though that is down here, up north it has been the opposite.

0-4 above normal is barely noteworthy.

Now do 10/31 to 11/21 added in since you cherry picked the only warm period since snow started falling.

Wasn't quite that cool but that really is the only other instance I can remember under 50 degrees.

Shocking to say the least.

They better be banking on a wet end of the month because it looks like a fat sack of ZzZzZs for the first half of the month

49kt max at DTW earlier with the showers that passed through.

Locally it is true since the late 70s. snowy November has equaled a less snowy December since the late 70s locally. Before than it is more mixed.

Of course we get this now and not in the spring when we would have some instability.

The concern I have with that mean is that it might be too far east for most here with the trough axis. I guess we will see but I don't want to jump into a nor'Easter bonanza while we shut down.

All the interesting shit evaporated, so did everyone.