Stebo

I'll take Unrealistic Phenomena for $2000 Alex.

But seriously 20 states currently with some sort of Dense fog or Freezing Fog advisory, just goes to show you how stagnate this pattern is currently.

Sorry I had to

I couldn't find climatology for thickness records, but 500mb heights I did find, and that would have been near historic. The lowest heights I found for Melbourne was 544dm and 550dm for Miami. This was 547 and 550 exactly.

Man the GFS

What he is saying is right, at the very least it isn't wall to wall blowtorch look starting around the first.

Happy October 23rd everyone. 54 at DTW for max.

Yep, lets just fast forward to mid March

I would check historical numbers vs the sensationalism that is the NE subforum.

Long range storms at least signify potential. When you are consistently showing nothing, the signal is for a pattern to produce nothing. It isn't just the GFS either, but the GEFS/EPS also are coming up with nothing through their runs.

Hell I'm just happy to see something. Having a July pattern in December is garbage.

Yeah you don't want it dry this time of year either, that can have a negative feedback with moisture transport especially if it is widespread.

ZZZZZ

Why must you put this evil upon this forum

If split flow is the theme for this winter then we can just jet right to April.

Haha, it is most of the time though

Yep, just like when Snowlover2 posts, I know most of the subforum is about to get screwed.

Someone needs to edit this thread subtitle and change the word Euro to Storm

Not to mention the weather apps and facebook groups galore. It's an uphill battle for sure. I mean at this point I have literally no confidence in this system and we are closing in on day 3 or less.

Unfortunately NWP experts are going to say their models are infallible and most of the times they aren't going to be using them to forecast day to day. We have seen better sampling make a huge difference especially in situations like this where you have so many moving parts. I mean we have monster storm in the northeast, the ridge behind it, how much confluence ends up behind it, 2 systems in Canada and the main system itself which doesn't want to figure out if it's coming out all at once or in pieces. I really feel for you guys in NWS on this one because there are like 5 different outcomes and all could be right. Hell there are even a few GEFS members that bring rain almost to here.

Went very strong with that shortwave across canada early on. That is going to be a major player with respect to height rises ahead of this system. Problem is it is in canada and its data sparse up there and unlike the main system, it isn't ever going to come into the US so that is going to be a question mark for a while.

When you get this close the ops have more merit. Still worthy to look at ensembles especially if they are dramatically different.

I'll wait for the 00z Euro but if it comes in like previous runs I think we could safely toss the GFS as being shit.

GFS is really struggling, getting slower and slower with the trough ejection and struggling with the low location. What a garbage model.

It is a bit wonky how it handles the vort max but definitely a step in the right direction.