I would be cautious of the GFS, absolutely notorious for pattern breakdowns and too strong of cold shots this time of year. Even if it is right, it immediately warms right back up by the end of the run to ++ anomalies in the east.
I don't think the pattern is as bleak as you are saying especially for ridge riding MCSs, though I do think Iowa may be too far south in this case with the ridge starting to flex its muscles a bit.
Absolutely love being in the western part of the Eastern Time Zone, sun comes up around 6am and goes down around 9:15pm in summer and 8AM/5PM in winter.